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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 100% | +8 pts | +5 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 31 | 0% | −2 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 249d | Trustinghorse | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,369 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 249d |  Hakei. | March 31 | SellYes100¢ | $1,541 | −$8 −0.5% | — |
| 249d |  llzl9d9ujfurhuer3 | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,073 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 249d | Odysseus7 | March 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,616 | +$8 +0.5% | 4 |
| 249d | ImJustJack | March 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,349 | −$56 −0.6% | — |
| 249d | Hakei.2 fills | March 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,310 | +$40 +1.7% | 4 |
| 249d |  Casdifer19 fills | March 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $65,085 | +$3,129 +4.8% | 4 |
| 249d | imclueless | March 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,763 | +$51 +1.8% | 4 |
| 253d | ImJustJack2 fills | March 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,177 | +$172 +5.4% | 4 |
| 254d | Casdifer | March 31 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $14,050 | −$977 −7.0% | — |
| 258d |  zb8 | January 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,796 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 258d |  bamesjond | January 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,501 | +$11 +0.2% | 4 |
| 258d |  Contentious-Dinnerdate | January 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,018 | +$6 +0.6% | 4 |
| 260d |  CertifiedCRY2 fills | March 31 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $3,422 | −$366 −11% | — |
| 270d |  rando12345 | March 31 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,235 | +$75 +3.4% | 4 |
| 270d | Valid-Agent2 fills | March 31 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $5,499 | −$703 −13% | — |
| 273d | flowersforalgernon | March 31 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,499 | −$189 −5.4% | — |
| 273d | Valid-Agent | March 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,216 | +$112 +1.6% | 4 |
| 273d | spicylebne | March 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,366 | +$28 +2.1% | 4 |
| 273d |  tourists2 fills | March 31 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $3,894 | +$433 +11% | 4 |
| 285d | lenjiao | March 31 | SellNo80¢ → 0¢ | $2,528 | +$2,528 +100% | — |
| 285d | taiyizh | March 31 | SellNo80¢ → 0¢ | $2,924 | +$2,924 +100% | — |
| 285d | bling-043 | March 31 | SellNo81¢ → 0¢ | $2,778 | +$2,778 +100% | — |
| 286d | jeechi | March 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $2,424 | −$2,424 −100% | 4 |
| 286d | lenjiao | March 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $2,536 | −$2,536 −100% | 4 |
| 286d | bling-043 | March 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $2,880 | −$2,880 −100% | 4 |
| 290d |  NadyaSuleman | March 31 | BuyNo77¢ → 0¢ | $1,564 | −$1,564 −100% | 4 |
| 291d | NadyaSuleman | March 31 | SellNo75¢ → 0¢ | $1,050 | +$1,050 +100% | — |
| 291d | robbt | December 31 | SellNo100¢ | $1,146 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 301d | 0xE7ea64e9acF4427678febB7cc9BAEdf7995cDd42 fills | December 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,500 | +$207 +5.9% | 4 |
| 301d |  MisterSandman | December 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,925 | −$75 −1.5% | — |
| 301d |  Arbguy | December 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,999 | −$46 −1.5% | — |
| 303d | 0xDba78EAeC18Da2455d4b78De38828C5 fills | December 31 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $9,364 | −$413 −4.4% | — |
| 303d | 0x804600942f9044BF4f32 fills | December 31 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $6,176 | −$555 −9.0% | — |
| 304d | lecko0 | December 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,462 | −$37 −1.5% | — |
| 308d | 0xDba78EAeC18Da2455d4b78De38828C2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $6,048 | +$410 +6.8% | 4 |
| 309d | Gamble.and.bankurpt | December 31 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,055 | −$22 −2.1% | — |
| 309d | warlasfutpro3 fills | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,393 | +$152 +4.5% | 4 |
| 309d | user12449 | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,773 | +$107 +3.8% | 4 |
| 309d | Kevindoto2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $6,337 | +$313 +4.9% | 4 |
| 309d | nonkenny90 | December 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,484 | +$71 +4.8% | 4 |
| 310d | 0xF0bAdb774d03663 fills | December 31 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $9,566 | −$642 −6.7% | — |
| 310d |  TeemuPukki | December 31 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,405 | −$68 −4.8% | — |
| 310d | simpleman | December 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$124 +5.0% | 4 |
| 310d |  Tulipking | December 31 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,620 | −$86 −5.3% | — |
| 310d | 0xd4696ADB3c4374b10608D2423e43a | December 31 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,126 | −$161 −5.2% | — |
| 311d |  ScottyNooo4 fills | December 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $16,562 | +$1,366 +8.2% | 4 |
| 312d |  cambridgeisaac2 fills | December 31 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,307 | −$118 −5.1% | — |
| 312d | 0x066D64FA7B2e352B9000A51C6b56F53128 | December 31 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,629 | −$288 −5.1% | — |
| 313d | Trusting-Running | December 31 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,382 | −$60 −4.3% | — |
| 314d | 0xE7ea64e9acF4427678febB7cc9BAEdf7995cDd4 | December 31 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,646 | −$239 −5.1% | — |
| 314d | aikko | December 31 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,358 | −$87 −6.4% | — |
| 315d |  garlictrump | December 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$111 +7.9% | 4 |
| 315d | TeemuPukki | December 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,644 | +$155 +9.4% | 4 |
| 315d |  lmtfalone | December 31 | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,365 | −$349 −15% | — |
| 315d | gumsii | December 31 | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,859 | −$265 −14% | — |
| 316d |  Euan | December 31 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,654 | −$349 −9.5% | — |
| 316d | lampcap | December 31 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,849 | −$251 −8.8% | — |
| 316d | mrstupid | December 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,190 | +$70 +5.9% | 4 |
| 317d | Trusting-Running | December 31 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,265 | +$177 +14% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI integrates advertisements into ChatGPT, GPT-4, GPT-4.1, GPT-5, or any successor general-purpose GPT model made publicly available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Limited advertisement releases restricted to a specific region, model, or user group will qualify. The release must be publicly announced as accessible to the relevant users. Closed betas or fully private testing do not count. Once implemented, the market will resolve to “Yes” immediately, regardless of whether the integration is later removed. An announcement will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes"; only the release of the advertisement integration will trigger a "Yes" resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for March 31 means the market gives it about 100%.