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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 443d | QMG-CORE | US forces in Iran before August? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,432 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 443d | Lisbon | US forces in Iran before August? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 458d | Bombarda | US forces in Iran before August? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,977 | +$30 +0.6% | 4 |
| 460d | affs20791 | US forces in Iran before August? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,599 | −$18 −1.2% | — |
| 470d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly2 fills | US forces in Iran before August? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,956 | −$88 −1.5% | — |
| 472d |  KazukoSafaa | US forces in Iran before August? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,856 | +$29 +1.0% | 4 |
| 472d | affs20791 | US forces in Iran before August? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,595 | +$22 +1.4% | 4 |
| 473d |  Zykoer2 fills | US forces in Iran before August? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,776 | +$95 +2.0% | 4 |
| 473d |  DegenerateJanet | US forces in Iran before August? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,178 | +$23 +1.9% | 4 |
| 473d |  Plant2tri | US forces in Iran before August? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$22 +2.0% | 4 |
| 475d | KrackenSruster | US forces in Iran before August? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,445 | −$59 −2.4% | — |
| 476d | taralynnbar | US forces in Iran before August? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,846 | +$85 +2.2% | 4 |
| 478d | ourdemocracy | US forces in Iran before August? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,982 | +$51 +2.6% | 4 |
| 479d | Clown | US forces in Iran before August? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,169 | +$101 +3.2% | 4 |
| 480d | ourdemocracy2 | US forces in Iran before August? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,081 | +$27 +2.5% | 4 |
| 480d |  Brokie | US forces in Iran before August? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,732 | +$268 +5.7% | 4 |
| 481d | slight-2 fills | US forces in Iran before August? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $16,743 | +$1,484 +8.9% | 4 |
| 481d |  DoneWithIt2 fills | US forces in Iran before August? | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,186 | −$323 −10% | — |
| 482d | applepie7772 fills | US forces in Iran before August? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,640 | +$245 +9.3% | 4 |
| 482d |  Trumputin2 fills | US forces in Iran before August? | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,145 | −$291 −9.2% | — |
| 482d |  VinnyViral | US forces in Iran before August? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,583 | +$229 +8.9% | 4 |
| 482d | HanSolo24 | US forces in Iran before August? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$216 +11% | 4 |
| 482d |  scrooge | US forces in Iran before August? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,014 | +$113 +11% | 4 |
| 484d | Green-InitializeNew account | US forces in Iran before August? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,739 | +$151 +8.7% | 6 |
SkilledProcrastinator1 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point between June 18, 2025, and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. High ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.