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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +16 pts | +28 pts | 96¢ · 97¢ (1¢) | — | in 74d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 124d | NeoOracle2 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,576 | +$42 +0.9% | 20 |
| 124d | AlanYagami-T | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,484 | −$94 −6.3% | — |
| 124d |  Rex4162 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $3,030 | +$649 +21% | 20 |
| 124d | 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA960421 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $31,394 | +$9,495 +30% | 20 |
| 124d | Trustinghorse5 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $11,662 | +$742 +6.4% | 20 |
| 124d | 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA960415 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes76¢ → 100¢ | $26,726 | −$8,637 −32% | — |
| 124d | k00pa | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $3,200 | +$425 +13% | 20 |
| 124d | LeRoiSoleil | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $6,286 | −$1,771 −28% | — |
| 124d |  knrad | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | −$163 −11% | — |
| 124d |  Car | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,383 | +$161 +12% | 20 |
| 124d |  MisTKy4 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyYes60¢ → 100¢ | $12,350 | +$8,105 +66% | 20 |
| 125d |  b7i6656c94ccv | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $2,236 | −$559 −25% | — |
| 125d |  Maru.lucky.nala.lenu | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes81¢ → 100¢ | $1,158 | −$273 −24% | — |
| 125d |  Valen92 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $5,076 | −$1,434 −28% | — |
| 126d | LeRoiSoleil | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $6,050 | +$2,007 +33% | 20 |
| 126d |  just.some.guy.2026 | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes72¢ → 100¢ | $1,136 | −$446 −39% | — |
| 126d |  GollumGekko | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $1,681 | +$627 +37% | 20 |
| 127d | Yangtaolalala | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,190 | −$376 −32% | — |
| 127d | just.some.guy.2026 | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $2,250 | +$750 +33% | 20 |
| 127d |  pup13 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $3,612 | +$1,405 +39% | 20 |
| 127d |  debased | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $1,124 | +$585 +52% | 20 |
| 127d | xiaohuli12 | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,069 | −$712 −67% | — |
| 128d | Valen93 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $12,315 | +$6,485 +53% | 20 |
| 129d |  shuanyang | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes65¢ → 100¢ | $6,486 | −$3,514 −54% | — |
| 129d | BarakYEET | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyNo34¢ → 0¢ | $1,762 | −$1,762 −100% | 22 |
| 130d | DoloresZ2 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes71¢ → 100¢ | $2,856 | −$1,139 −40% | — |
| 131d | Zubumafu2 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes65¢ → 100¢ | $2,382 | −$1,283 −54% | — |
| 134d | Detailed-Lip | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyNo34¢ → 0¢ | $3,084 | −$3,084 −100% | 23 |
| 135d | chillbold | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,015 | +$500 +49% | 20 |
| 135d | xvg | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $2,677 | +$1,318 +49% | 20 |
| 137d | CJZlee | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes64¢ → 100¢ | $5,955 | −$3,294 −55% | — |
| 139d | ArienNasr | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyNo31¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 20 |
| 140d | linkfren2 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes53¢ → 100¢ | $3,139 | −$2,759 −88% | — |
| 141d | Sentimental-Timing | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$338 +28% | 20 |
| 144d | machine321 | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes72¢ → 100¢ | $4,282 | −$1,635 −38% | — |
| 144d | kohalacoastgabe | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,445 | −$479 −33% | — |
| 146d | 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA9604 | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyNo26¢ → 0¢ | $1,037 | −$1,037 −100% | 20 |
| 146d | debased | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyNo25¢ → 0¢ | $1,238 | −$1,238 −100% | 21 |
| 146d |  BlackswanDefi | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,160 | −$340 −29% | — |
| 146d | Skinny-Class | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyNo28¢ → 0¢ | $1,400 | −$1,400 −100% | 21 |
| 146d | Sentimental-Timing | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes63¢ → 100¢ | $1,090 | −$649 −60% | — |
| 147d | denizz5 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyNo46¢ → 0¢ | $11,674 | −$11,674 −100% | 22 |
| 150d | treesanddreams | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyNo42¢ → 0¢ | $2,878 | −$2,878 −100% | 22 |
| 151d | DoloresZ | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $1,115 | +$575 +52% | 20 |
| 151d |  paddaa | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyNo41¢ → 0¢ | $1,400 | −$1,400 −100% | 21 |
| 155d | machine321 | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyYes61¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$1,282 +64% | 20 |
| 158d | Inchoroi3 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes53¢ → 100¢ | $10,894 | −$9,830 −90% | — |
| 158d | 0xc721…47853 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyNo43¢ → 0¢ | $4,257 | −$4,257 −100% | 22 |
| 158d | 0xc721…4785 | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellNo43¢ → 0¢ | $1,419 | +$1,419 +100% | — |
| 158d | 0x0cc3…7f7b8 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes57¢ → 100¢ | $17,154 | −$12,941 −75% | — |
| 158d | 0xd520…69096 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyNo43¢ → 0¢ | $11,350 | −$11,350 −100% | 23 |
| 158d | 0xd520…6909 | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellNo43¢ → 0¢ | $1,892 | +$1,892 +100% | — |
| 158d | 0x7fb3…22092 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyNo43¢ → 0¢ | $2,064 | −$2,064 −100% | 21 |
| 158d | 0x7fb3…2209 | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellNo43¢ → 0¢ | $1,032 | +$1,032 +100% | — |
| 158d | 0x0cc3…7f7b | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyYes57¢ → 100¢ | $1,368 | +$1,032 +75% | 20 |
| 158d | 0xf879…646c5 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyNo43¢ → 0¢ | $7,740 | −$7,740 −100% | 23 |
| 158d | 0xf879…646c | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellNo43¢ → 0¢ | $1,548 | +$1,548 +100% | — |
| 158d | 0xe6af…12dd3 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes57¢ → 100¢ | $6,156 | −$4,644 −75% | — |
| 158d | 0x7db1…7aca5 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SellYes57¢ → 100¢ | $6,214 | −$4,726 −76% | — |
| 159d | Inchoroi3 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $5,300 | +$2,868 +54% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.