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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 100% | +87 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 19 | 100% | +97 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 14 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 31 | 100% | +75 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 31 | 100% | +48 pts | — | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 302d |  copefan | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,109 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 302d | LuckyWin | December 19 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,157 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 302d | LuckyWin | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,253 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 302d |  GollumGekko | December 19 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,688 | +$54 +0.7% | 20 |
| 302d |  ScottyNooo3 fills | December 31 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $10,110 | +$675 +6.7% | 20 |
| 302d | BMP03 | December 19 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,666 | −$24 −1.5% | — |
| 302d | BMP03 | December 31 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,245 | −$138 −2.6% | — |
| 302d |  Optimus- | December 19 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,600 | +$11 +0.4% | 20 |
| 302d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | December 19 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,447 | +$53 +2.2% | 20 |
| 302d | ScottyNooo | December 19 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,776 | +$121 +3.2% | 20 |
| 302d | denizz3 fills | December 19 | BuyYes51¢ → 100¢ | $4,049 | +$3,914 +97% | 20 |
| 302d | Kaizer1337 | December 19 | BuyNo99¢ → 0¢ | $1,400 | −$1,400 −100% | 20 |
| 302d | Frogshollow | December 31 | BuyYes17¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$9,573 +479% | 24 |
| 303d | denizz8 fills | December 31 | BuyNo79¢ → 0¢ | $30,832 | −$30,832 −100% | 20 |
| 303d |  Syrianbutterfly | December 31 | SellNo89¢ → 0¢ | $2,670 | +$2,670 +100% | — |
| 303d |  ComingBack | December 19 | SellNo96¢ → 0¢ | $2,801 | +$2,801 +100% | — |
| 303d | Glittering-Wreck3 fills | December 31 | BuyNo86¢ → 0¢ | $11,951 | −$11,951 −100% | 23 |
| 303d | Thin-Print | December 19 | BuyNo98¢ → 0¢ | $2,282 | −$2,282 −100% | 20 |
| 304d |  ArkOfMercy | December 31 | SellNo88¢ → 0¢ | $1,231 | +$1,231 +100% | — |
| 305d | labubull23 fills | December 31 | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $4,776 | −$4,776 −100% | 20 |
| 305d | sdsdsfs | December 19 | BuyNo95¢ → 0¢ | $15,475 | −$15,475 −100% | 20 |
| 306d | denizz | December 31 | BuyYes20¢ → 100¢ | $2,447 | +$9,928 +406% | 25 |
| 306d |  mombil | December 31 | BuyYes20¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$6,400 +400% | 23 |
| 306d | YHK | December 31 | BuyNo82¢ → 0¢ | $1,120 | −$1,120 −100% | 20 |
| 306d | Syrianbutterfly | December 31 | BuyNo84¢ → 0¢ | $2,520 | −$2,520 −100% | 20 |
| 306d |  Iamnobody.Nobody | December 19 | BuyNo95¢ → 0¢ | $2,049 | −$2,049 −100% | 20 |
| 306d |  Parz1vaI2 fills | December 19 | BuyNo93¢ → 0¢ | $2,292 | −$2,292 −100% | 20 |
| 306d |  turtle911 | December 31 | BuyNo82¢ → 0¢ | $1,309 | −$1,309 −100% | 20 |
| 306d | esac | December 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,932 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 306d | ComingBack | December 19 | BuyNo91¢ → 0¢ | $2,100 | −$2,100 −100% | 20 |
| 306d | ComingBack | December 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 306d |  PredictionYogi | December 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,989 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 307d |  AllByMyseIf | December 14 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,410 | +$31 +2.2% | 20 |
| 307d | fjgjkj | December 14 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,344 | +$134 +3.1% | 20 |
| 307d | denizz2 fills | December 14 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,139 | +$159 +3.8% | 20 |
| 307d | denizz2 fills | December 19 | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $2,958 | −$2,958 −100% | 20 |
| 307d |  Car | December 14 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,142 | −$58 −5.1% | — |
| 307d |  MisTKy3 | December 14 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,115 | −$45 −4.0% | — |
| 307d | labubull2 | December 19 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $2,227 | −$2,227 −100% | 20 |
| 307d |  JJo | December 14 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,195 | −$43 −3.6% | — |
| 307d | YHK | December 14 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,435 | +$79 +3.2% | 20 |
| 307d | MisTKy3 | December 14 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,416 | +$37 +2.6% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Syrian soil or any official Syrian embassy or consulate by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Syrian ground territory or any official Syrian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Syrian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Syrian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 100%.