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Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 100% | — | +60 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Germany | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| France | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| China | 100% | +90 pts | +91 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| India | 0% | 0 pts | −26 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Switzerland | 100% | +24 pts | +86 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Argentina | 100% | +50 pts | +85 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Canada | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| South Korea | 100% | +34 pts | +29 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Mexico | 0% | −1 pts | −35 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Israel | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Australia | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 320d |  PredictionYogi | Australia | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,044 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 320d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Mexico | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,613 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 323d |  Dapsy | Canada | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,037 | +$28 +2.7% | 20 |
| 324d |  mioki2 fills | China | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,604 | +$39 +1.1% | 20 |
| 324d |  Allinnothing | China | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,814 | +$52 +1.8% | 20 |
| 324d |  AllByMyseIf2 fills | China | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,211 | −$80 −3.6% | — |
| 324d |  ScottyNooo | China | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $3,086 | +$305 +9.9% | 21 |
| 326d | Cloudy-Naming | China | BuyNo89¢ → 0¢ | $1,771 | −$1,771 −100% | 21 |
| 329d |  SQP3G | Brazil | SellYes>99¢ | $4,446 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 329d | 033033033 | Brazil | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,044 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 329d | LFC8 | Brazil | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,097 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 329d | SQP3G | Brazil | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,895 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 330d |  CoffeeLover | Brazil | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,139 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 330d |  scout | Brazil | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,025 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 330d | PlunderPork4480 | Brazil | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,162 | −$38 −0.9% | — |
| 330d |  Ahpo | Brazil | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,478 | −$23 −0.9% | — |
| 330d | Scrawny-Mole | Brazil | SellYes>99¢ | $1,387 | −$7 −0.5% | — |
| 334d | tktair5rgnpvd | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,483 | +$33 +1.3% | 20 |
| 334d | hoklwduzpnvmt | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,487 | +$33 +1.3% | 20 |
| 334d | prhnfivnezlne | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,485 | +$33 +1.3% | 20 |
| 334d | omggu2u37l26d | Germany | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,476 | +$40 +1.6% | 20 |
| 334d | rowhwy0pbsjyh | Germany | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,485 | +$40 +1.6% | 20 |
| 334d | ijuorvnku0el7 | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,479 | +$35 +1.4% | 20 |
| 335d | xsjptlp32p | China | BuyYes43¢ → 100¢ | $1,078 | +$1,409 +131% | 20 |
| 336d | theulkmtmo6j | Germany | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,498 | −$42 −1.2% | — |
| 336d | socqq2vrg4he | Germany | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,507 | −$43 −1.2% | — |
| 336d | theulkmtmo6j | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,501 | +$39 +1.1% | 20 |
| 336d | socqq2vrg4he | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,511 | +$39 +1.1% | 20 |
| 336d | Infatuated-SidestreamNew account | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,505 | +$39 +1.1% | 21 |
| 336d | jwito0qpi31w | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,507 | +$39 +1.1% | 20 |
| 336d | jvgpds4yadyx6 | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,510 | +$39 +1.1% | 20 |
| 336d | whproj21a4awa | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,512 | +$39 +1.1% | 20 |
| 336d | nwefaq1b97tj1 | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,512 | +$43 +1.2% | 20 |
| 336d | awvqcgszmi0rh | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,502 | +$43 +1.2% | 20 |
| 336d | ftgpihaxpum0 | France | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,500 | +$50 +1.4% | 20 |
| 336d | itrtox6awkcq | France | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,515 | +$50 +1.4% | 20 |
| 336d | fpiggx28fuue | France | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,502 | +$53 +1.5% | 20 |
| 336d | xdwxgvirk32q | France | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,507 | +$53 +1.5% | 20 |
| 337d |  Frosen2 fills | Switzerland | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,162 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 337d | AllByMyseIf | Switzerland | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,025 | +$21 +2.0% | 20 |
| 337d |  PRNewswire | Switzerland | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,648 | +$126 +3.4% | 20 |
| 337d | migdwviqs8rll | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,515 | +$36 +1.0% | 20 |
| 337d | hvuajypivtxqv | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,523 | +$36 +1.0% | 20 |
| 337d | ivefqd119bagh | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,516 | +$43 +1.2% | 20 |
| 337d | pcjgkocekxg85 | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,508 | +$43 +1.2% | 20 |
| 337d |  UwO2 fills | South Korea | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,040 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 337d | bqdeosfmstabo | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,494 | +$25 +1.0% | 20 |
| 337d | htkbqhoql3cbs | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,490 | +$25 +1.0% | 20 |
| 337d | tmpbmpob8nmpu | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,491 | +$25 +1.0% | 20 |
| 337d | qeswkv5a9dii7 | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$25 +1.0% | 20 |
| 337d | ksqrskr87z40f | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,489 | +$25 +1.0% | 20 |
| 337d | tqmmre5kz5353 | Germany | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,486 | +$25 +1.0% | 20 |
| 337d | lan031043 | South Korea | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,100 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 337d |  TeemuPukki2 fills | South Korea | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,594 | +$235 +9.1% | 20 |
| 337d | iu1go011t5cdf | France | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,659 | −$18 −1.1% | — |
| 337d | esry5hys | France | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,952 | −$22 −1.1% | — |
| 337d | iu1go011t5cdf | France | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,659 | +$18 +1.1% | 20 |
| 337d | esry5hys | France | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,952 | +$22 +1.1% | 20 |
| 337d | hdterszjn2351xd | France | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,856 | +$21 +1.1% | 20 |
| 337d | qfrew12a0s | France | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,755 | +$20 +1.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the listed country/entity by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements to extend tariff exemptions will qualify if announced as an individualized extension. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/). Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Brazil means the market gives it about 100%.