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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 258d | weaklei | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,254 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 258d | BigWil2 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,889 | −$16 −0.4% | — |
| 258d | Limp-Jicama3 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $5,270 | −$13 −0.3% | — |
| 258d |  Nomia4 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,396 | +$70 +0.6% | 20 |
| 259d | 64MGX75VLQ | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 259d |  InvierteConSeb | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,487 | +$14 +0.3% | 20 |
| 259d | PikaCHU448 | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,050 | +$32 +0.4% | 20 |
| 259d | hjss5 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $13,619 | +$195 +1.4% | 20 |
| 259d | Flancho2 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,852 | +$90 +1.1% | 20 |
| 260d |  blindmaninanorgy3 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $13,901 | +$107 +0.8% | 20 |
| 260d | Lisbon2 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,348 | +$17 +0.7% | 20 |
| 260d | k00pa2 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,427 | +$73 +1.6% | 20 |
| 260d | Matelleti2 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,916 | −$49 −1.3% | — |
| 260d | notssf3 | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,323 | +$20 +0.6% | 20 |
| 260d | Pessimistic-Evocation | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,916 | −$84 −1.2% | — |
| 260d | BigWil | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,843 | +$13 +0.7% | 20 |
| 260d | Limp-Jicama2 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,670 | +$30 +0.8% | 20 |
| 260d | exposito2 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,023 | +$112 +1.4% | 20 |
| 260d | Overjoyed-Trinket | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,092 | −$32 −1.5% | — |
| 260d | yupiiiiiiiii | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,835 | −$17 −0.9% | — |
| 260d | Nomia | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,882 | −$21 −1.1% | — |
| 260d | TronOG4 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,640 | +$126 +1.7% | 20 |
| 260d | 0x79a009b7C0336273Bf3Bc7E1D940aD3e2152B9 | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,910 | +$90 +1.8% | 20 |
| 260d | liamweber | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,098 | −$33 −3.0% | — |
| 261d | projectparrot3 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,431 | −$100 −2.3% | — |
| 261d |  peggysage | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,542 | −$16 −1.0% | — |
| 261d | Chief-Leverage | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,044 | +$9 +0.9% | 20 |
| 261d |  elmcap2 | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,300 | +$86 +1.0% | 20 |
| 261d | dissk2 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,387 | +$36 +1.5% | 20 |
| 261d | kirikiku | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,729 | +$61 +1.6% | 20 |
| 261d |  Flipadelphia8 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $75,916 | +$2,390 +3.1% | 20 |
| 262d | SplendidAmadeus | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $11,808 | +$192 +1.6% | 20 |
| 262d | Doppelpack | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$35 +1.4% | 20 |
| 263d | asskik | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,586 | +$44 +1.2% | 20 |
| 264d |  Goopster2 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,333 | +$67 +1.3% | 20 |
| 265d | b3tm0re | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,010 | +$10 +1.0% | 20 |
| 265d |  Parz1vaI | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,791 | −$34 −1.9% | — |
| 266d |  dooby2 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $11,958 | +$385 +3.2% | 20 |
| 267d | kevtp2 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,832 | +$168 +2.9% | 20 |
| 267d |  Oompa-Loompa2 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,869 | +$204 +4.2% | 20 |
| 267d | JD29 | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,093 | +$57 +2.7% | 20 |
| 267d | Parz1vaI | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,113 | +$116 +3.7% | 20 |
| 267d |  MisTKy10 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $31,240 | −$989 −3.2% | — |
| 267d | Threadbare-Astronomy | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,164 | +$130 +3.1% | 20 |
| 268d | Flancho | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,014 | −$9 −0.9% | — |
| 268d | keribit | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,485 | −$15 −1.0% | — |
| 268d | Mhhhhhh | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,013 | +$35 +3.4% | 20 |
| 268d | Laurenman | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,222 | −$36 −3.0% | — |
| 268d | keribit3 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,809 | +$181 +3.8% | 20 |
| 270d |  NotTheBadWolf2 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $7,709 | +$291 +3.8% | 20 |
| 270d | MisTKy6 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $34,246 | +$1,198 +3.5% | 20 |
| 271d |  Cheddar-Factory | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,644 | +$85 +1.8% | 20 |
| 271d |  Ahpo | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,123 | −$22 −1.9% | — |
| 271d | projectparrot | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$39 +1.9% | 20 |
| 271d | 0x1ae0…b843 | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,000 | +$231 +2.6% | 20 |
| 271d | KrackenSruster | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $8,000 | +$209 +2.6% | 20 |
| 272d | Skaliz | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,188 | +$34 +2.9% | 20 |
| 273d |  Stairs. | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,455 | +$45 +3.1% | 20 |
| 273d |  DerDon3 fills | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,197 | +$201 +3.2% | 20 |
| 273d | Argentflight | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,105 | +$34 +3.1% | 20 |
tetrose40,384 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.