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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 3 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 4 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 1 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 2 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 11 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 6 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 15 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 31 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 5 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 7 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 8 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 9 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 10 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 12 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 13 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 222d |  Everestpredictions | March 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,119 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | Honest-Display | March 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,992 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | Coolmanx | March 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,766 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | Strict-Bourgeoisie | March 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,298 | −$15 −0.5% | — |
| 222d |  Infringe | March 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,206 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 222d | Qualified-Macrofauna | March 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,198 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 222d | Qualified-Macrofauna | March 13 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,210 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 222d | Banelinho | March 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,183 | −$10 −0.3% | — |
| 222d | 0xSensei | March 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,516 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 222d | FlyingPlaty | March 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,238 | +$19 +0.3% | 20 |
| 222d | Infringe | March 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,206 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 222d | Trustinghorse | March 9 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,336 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 222d | Kaka50 | March 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,436 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 222d | BrightStars2 fills | March 31 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $3,818 | −$488 −13% | — |
| 222d |  FxCK-MDPog | March 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,036 | −$24 −0.3% | — |
| 222d | arttheking2 fills | March 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,386 | +$29 +0.4% | 20 |
| 222d | Yalokin | March 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,190 | −$27 −0.3% | — |
| 222d | User9474764 | March 8 | SellYes100¢ | $1,038 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 222d |  PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN | March 8 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,134 | +$10 +0.9% | 20 |
| 222d | Carrylicious | March 8 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,251 | −$14 −0.6% | — |
| 222d | Crypto1Mark | March 8 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,516 | −$9 −0.6% | — |
| 222d |  Nik- | March 8 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,669 | −$28 −0.6% | — |
| 222d |  49023809234904 | March 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,454 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | anoin123 | March 8 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,539 | +$9 +0.6% | 20 |
| 222d | b4k9xj2wh | March 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,834 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d | b4k9xj2wh | March 13 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,948 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d | b4k9xj2wh | March 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,284 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d | Michael5289 | March 8 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,307 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 222d | Thecommander | March 8 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,039 | −$20 −1.9% | — |
| 222d | Llama67 | March 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,313 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 222d | Right-Suede | March 8 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,006 | −$20 −1.0% | — |
| 222d | hanyfrfr | March 9 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,473 | −$14 −1.0% | — |
| 222d |  Ahpo | March 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,436 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 222d |  willsom | March 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,480 | +$17 +0.3% | 20 |
| 222d | 49023809234904 | March 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,450 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 222d | politickler | March 9 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,346 | −$41 −0.9% | — |
| 222d | newnewuser2 fills | March 8 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,977 | +$154 +3.9% | 20 |
| 222d | Bubbly-CongregationNew account | March 8 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,689 | −$17 −1.0% | — |
| 222d | Untimely-TrusteeNew account | March 10 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,204 | −$17 −1.4% | — |
| 222d |  OraculumNobius | March 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,000 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 222d | politickler | March 8 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,623 | −$43 −0.9% | — |
| 222d | roverpredicts | March 9 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,349 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d | Israeli-guys | March 9 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,189 | −$14 −1.2% | — |
| 222d | Nik- | March 8 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,949 | +$51 +1.0% | 20 |
| 222d |  chemical | March 8 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,329 | +$51 +1.5% | 20 |
| 222d | Ordon | March 8 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,478 | +$30 +2.0% | 20 |
| 222d |  dotethguy2 fills | March 8 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $10,829 | +$221 +2.0% | 20 |
| 222d | BrightStars3 fills | March 31 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $48,028 | +$1,801 +3.7% | 20 |
| 222d | Yaniv100 | March 8 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,134 | −$142 −2.3% | — |
| 222d |  KING-VIP232 fills | March 8 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $7,343 | −$357 −4.9% | — |
| 222d | Sinful-Cupcake | March 10 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,598 | −$60 −3.7% | — |
| 222d | Skinny-Class | March 8 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,628 | −$156 −2.0% | — |
| 222d |  💰💰 | March 8 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,292 | +$47 +2.0% | 20 |
| 222d |  BeneGesseritVoice | March 10 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,580 | +$26 +1.0% | 20 |
| 222d | Right-Suede | March 8 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,625 | +$81 +5.0% | 20 |
| 222d | cashy | March 9 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,900 | +$100 +2.0% | 20 |
| 222d |  StarMaster | March 8 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$139 +7.0% | 20 |
| 222d | Profuse-Fallingout2 fills | March 8 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,806 | +$410 +8.5% | 20 |
| 222d |  bamesjond4 fills | March 8 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $10,927 | +$981 +9.0% | 20 |
| 222d | FxCK-MDPog | March 8 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $7,495 | +$565 +7.5% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for March 3 means the market gives it about 0%.