| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,000 | 94¢ → 98¢ | $982 | +$42 +4.4% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 1,000 | 92¢ → 95¢ | $949 | +$29 +3.1% |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 187 | 82¢ → 96¢ | $180 | +$27 +17% |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 172 | 31¢ → 90¢ | $155 | +$102 +191% |
| Base iPhone 18 released by April 30, 2027?Ends in 195d | Yes | 91 | 77¢ → 92¢ | $84 | +$14 +19% |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 51 | 55¢ → 95¢ | $49 | +$21 +74% |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 52 | 55¢ → 77¢ | $40 | +$11 +40% |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 42 | 52¢ → 76¢ | $32 | +$10 +46% |
| Will Jay Z release an album in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 42 | 73¢ → 75¢ | $31 | +$1 +2.1% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 187 | 53¢ → 14¢ | $27 | −$72 −73% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 29 | 56¢ → 89¢ | $26 | +$9 +57% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 49 | 52¢ → 53¢ | $26 | +$0 +1.0% |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 24 | 47¢ → 98¢ | $23 | +$12 +110% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 45 | 51¢ → 49¢ | $22 | −$1 −4.9% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 131 | 50¢ → 17¢ | $22 | −$43 −67% |
| Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?Ends in 165d | Yes | 26 | 75¢ → 82¢ | $21 | +$2 +8.7% |
| Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?Ends in 14d | No | 19 | 83¢ → >99¢ | $19 | +$3 +20% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 35 | 75¢ → 51¢ | $17 | −$8 −32% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 19 | 29¢ → 82¢ | $16 | +$10 +181% |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 25 | 47¢ → 62¢ | $15 | +$4 +31% |
| Will Google (GOOGL) Q3 YouTube ads revenue be above $11.8B?Ends in 10d | No | 18 | 85¢ → 85¢ | $15 | −$0 −0.6% |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Ends in 440d | Yes | 46 | 47¢ → 33¢ | $15 | −$7 −31% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 17 | 35¢ → 88¢ | $15 | +$9 +150% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 72 | 48¢ → 17¢ | $12 | −$23 −66% |
| Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 219 | 19¢ → 5¢ | $11 | −$31 −75% |
| Will NYC have between 3 and 4.25 inches of precipitation in October?Ends in 82d | Yes | 43 | 48¢ → 24¢ | $10 | −$10 −50% |
| Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 43d | Yes | 16 | 86¢ → 63¢ | $10 | −$4 −27% |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 29 | 34¢ → 35¢ | $10 | +$0 +3.1% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 12 | 29¢ → 84¢ | $10 | +$7 +188% |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 10 | 74¢ → 88¢ | $9 | +$1 +19% |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 25 | 53¢ → 36¢ | $9 | −$4 −32% |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 19 | 45¢ → 47¢ | $9 | +$0 +3.7% |
| Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $25 in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 12 | 75¢ → 73¢ | $9 | −$0 −2.7% |
| Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 33 | 44¢ → 26¢ | $9 | −$6 −41% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 12 | 54¢ → 69¢ | $8 | +$2 +29% |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 10 | 10¢ → 79¢ | $8 | +$7 +687% |
| Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Ends in 2d | Yes | 45 | 49¢ → 16¢ | $7 | −$15 −67% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 12 | 49¢ → 60¢ | $7 | +$1 +22% |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 101 | 5¢ → 7¢ | $7 | +$2 +39% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 7 | 48¢ → 92¢ | $7 | +$3 +91% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 8 | 47¢ → 81¢ | $7 | +$3 +71% |
| Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 1.00 to 2.99 ft by November 30?Ends in 45d | Yes | 27 | 21¢ → 24¢ | $6 | +$1 +12% |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 37 | 13¢ → 17¢ | $6 | +$2 +33% |
| Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 40 | 25¢ → 16¢ | $6 | −$4 −39% |
| Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 33 | 14¢ → 18¢ | $6 | +$1 +32% |
| Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 5% to 19.99%?Ends in 195d | Yes | 31 | 26¢ → 19¢ | $6 | −$2 −27% |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 73 | 19¢ → 8¢ | $5 | −$8 −60% |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 267 | 53¢ → 2¢ | $5 | −$136 −96% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Ends ended | No | 7 | 42¢ → 76¢ | $5 | +$2 +80% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 20 | 52¢ → 26¢ | $5 | −$5 −51% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 55¢ → 100¢ | $5 | +$2 +82% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 54¢ → 100¢ | $5 | +$2 +85% |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 24 | 27¢ → 21¢ | $5 | −$1 −21% |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 255d | No | 25 | 21¢ → 20¢ | $5 | −$0 −7.1% |
| Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 5 | 48¢ → 92¢ | $5 | +$2 +91% |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 33 | 48¢ → 14¢ | $5 | −$11 −71% |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 25 | 11¢ → 18¢ | $4 | +$2 +60% |
| Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,165,000 on December 31?Ends in 85d | No | 5 | 84¢ → 88¢ | $4 | +$0 +4.8% |
| Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 5 | 37¢ → 84¢ | $4 | +$2 +127% |
| Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 5% to 7%?Ends in 11d | Yes | 10 | 31¢ → 42¢ | $4 | +$1 +36% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 21 | 10¢ → 19¢ | $4 | +$2 +92% |
| Benedict Wong as Wong?Ends in 256d | Yes | 5 | 72¢ → 79¢ | $4 | +$0 +9.0% |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 16 | 55¢ → 24¢ | $4 | −$5 −56% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 24 | 16¢ → 16¢ | $4 | $0 0.0% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of December 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 5 | 65¢ → 72¢ | $4 | +$0 +10.0% |
| Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 5 | 37¢ → 70¢ | $3 | +$2 +88% |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 10 | 24¢ → 34¢ | $3 | +$1 +40% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 16 | 36¢ → 21¢ | $3 | −$2 −43% |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 15 | 40¢ → 22¢ | $3 | −$3 −45% |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 5 | 36¢ → 56¢ | $3 | +$1 +54% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 7 | 42¢ → 33¢ | $2 | −$1 −23% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 6 | 58¢ → 39¢ | $2 | −$1 −33% |
| Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Ends in 2d | Yes | 20 | 56¢ → 12¢ | $2 | −$9 −79% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 10 | 30¢ → 22¢ | $2 | −$1 −26% |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 517 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $2 | −$2 −56% |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 5 | 92¢ → 36¢ | $2 | −$3 −61% |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 14 | 15¢ → 13¢ | $2 | −$0 −17% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 41 | 13¢ → 4¢ | $2 | −$4 −67% |
| Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Ends in 440d | Yes | 69 | 2¢ → 3¢ | $2 | +$0 +27% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Ends ended | Yes | 5 | 88¢ → 31¢ | $2 | −$3 −65% |
| Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 10 | 15¢ → 16¢ | $2 | +$0 +6.7% |
| Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Ends in 2d | No | 3 | 55¢ → 40¢ | $1 | −$0 −28% |
| Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 1 | 64¢ → 94¢ | $1 | +$0 +46% |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 5 | 31¢ → 21¢ | $1 | −$0 −32% |
| Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 5 | 28¢ → 16¢ | $1 | −$1 −45% |
| Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 13 | 14¢ → 6¢ | $1 | −$1 −60% |
| Will Google have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 5 | 22¢ → 14¢ | $1 | −$0 −34% |
| Will OpenAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 11 | 20¢ → 5¢ | $1 | −$2 −76% |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 7 | 16¢ → 7¢ | $0 | −$1 −56% |
| Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 8 | 91¢ → 6¢ | $0 | −$7 −94% |
| Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 1 | 40¢ → 44¢ | $0 | +$0 +10% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 19 and October 25, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 11 | 12¢ → 3¢ | $0 | −$1 −75% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 5 | 12¢ → 3¢ | $0 | −$0 −78% |
| Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 13 | 13¢ → 1¢ | $0 | −$2 −94% |
| Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 5 | 35¢ → 2¢ | $0 | −$2 −95% |
| Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 28, 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 15 | 12¢ → 1¢ | $0 | −$2 −96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 65¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 52¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 49¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 5 | 52¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
