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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 100% | +6 pts | +28 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 15 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 22 | 100% | +9 pts | +38 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| October 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 31 | 100% | +1 pts | +3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| October 15 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 30 | 0% | −2 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 332d |  Tulipking | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,302 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 332d | bignewsagency2 fills | November 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,694 | −$46 −0.5% | — |
| 332d | Vacant-Kebab | November 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,310 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 332d | kheldar420 | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,132 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 332d | sphinxshen | November 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,566 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 332d | ZeroEmotion | November 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,807 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 332d | crypt0savage | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,000 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 332d | 0logn | November 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,775 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 332d |  mapotofuman | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,378 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 332d | 0x066D64FA7B2e352B9000A51C6b56F53128 | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 332d |  0xdc3E831cad | November 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 332d | sigggggggggsegvvvvvvv | November 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,859 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 332d | sigggggggggsegvvvvvvv | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,347 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 332d | qwufnr-3849j | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,430 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 332d |  77603dad7edbb9a2775c5294 fills | November 22 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $61,161 | −$3,037 −5.0% | — |
| 332d |  zwxokx | November 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,892 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 332d | zwxokx | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,604 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 332d | juantisco123 | November 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,072 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 332d | 99c | November 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,358 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 332d | 0x7a28z1 | November 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,653 | −$8 −0.3% | — |
| 332d | LuckyPuncher | November 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,119 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 332d | PotatoKotato | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,990 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 332d |  Debosnys | November 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,097 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 332d | glenncal | November 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,055 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 332d | rizn2 fills | November 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,556 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 332d | delphilo | November 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,272 | −$8 −0.4% | — |
| 332d | soothsayer234 | November 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,670 | −$17 −0.3% | — |
| 332d |  classified | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $30,435 | +$30 +0.1% | 20 |
| 332d |  Rumpelstiltskin | November 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,955 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 332d | aadvark | November 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,719 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 332d | 4e2fbc2acf | November 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,140 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 332d |  GayPride | November 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $24,127 | +$52 +0.2% | 20 |
| 332d |  ScottyNooo7 fills | November 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $16,978 | +$660 +3.9% | 20 |
| 332d | ScottyNooo4 fills | November 22 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $9,734 | +$340 +3.5% | 20 |
| 332d |  SQP3G2 fills | November 22 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,952 | +$26 +0.9% | 20 |
| 332d |  Noixaref2 fills | November 22 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,098 | +$66 +0.8% | 20 |
| 332d |  MichaelJacksonn | November 22 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,676 | +$41 +1.5% | 20 |
| 332d |  chungguskhan | November 30 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,311 | −$48 −0.7% | — |
| 332d | MAGURO | November 22 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,234 | +$40 +3.3% | 20 |
| 332d |  Vespucci | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,980 | −$20 −0.2% | — |
| 332d | crypt0savage | November 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 332d | Wrong-Politics | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,025 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 332d |  AnonSer | November 22 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,598 | −$40 −1.1% | — |
| 332d | AnonSer | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,990 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 332d | Patienceiskey09 | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,263 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 333d | zackflacko | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,122 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 333d |  moomoomoo | November 22 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,121 | +$21 +1.0% | 20 |
| 333d |  Allinnothing4 fills | November 22 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $13,774 | +$598 +4.3% | 20 |
| 333d | Noixaref2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,267 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 333d | ganatalak | November 22 | SellYes100¢ | $4,158 | −$21 −0.5% | — |
| 333d |  Roflan-ludoman | November 22 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,506 | −$29 −1.9% | — |
| 333d | Noixaref | November 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,991 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 333d | Roflan-ludoman5 fills | November 30 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $10,100 | +$487 +4.8% | 20 |
| 333d |  uncleroger | November 22 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,466 | +$45 +1.0% | 20 |
| 333d | argo | November 30 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,094 | −$62 −1.0% | — |
| 333d | Roflan-ludoman3 fills | November 22 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $4,330 | +$791 +18% | 20 |
| 333d | SplendidAmadeus3 fills | November 22 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $6,425 | +$575 +9.0% | 20 |
| 333d | ganatalak3 fills | November 22 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $5,494 | +$461 +8.4% | 20 |
| 333d |  ProfessionalPunter3 fills | November 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,552 | +$58 +1.3% | 20 |
| 333d | LuckyPuncher | November 30 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,910 | −$90 −1.8% | — |
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) Google's Gemini 3.0 model is made available to the general public. For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 3.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 3.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.0 (e.g. Gemini 3.0 pro would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 2.0, similar to the progression from Gemini 1.0 to Gemini 2.0. Products labeled as Gemini 2.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for November 30 means the market gives it about 100%.
