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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96d | Trustinghorse | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,215 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 96d | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,494 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 96d | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,525 | +$21 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 96d | agagyu3 fills | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,145 | +$343 +8.3% | 21 |
| 96d | nakam | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,014 | −$6 −0.6% | — |
| 97d | Sarumantheyellow | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $23,186 | +$114 +0.5% | 20 |
| 97d | Skinny-Class2 fills | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $12,491 | +$2,095 +17% | 22 |
| 97d | 0xE17D3 fills | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,664 | +$158 +1.6% | 20 |
| 97d | Alganda | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,204 | −$36 −3.0% | — |
| 97d | 0x1fd0…c6a7 | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,101 | +$20 +1.8% | 20 |
| 97d | EmanuelEG | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,762 | +$21 +1.2% | 20 |
| 97d | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,670 | +$276 +7.5% | 21 | |
| 97d | Moonshot10194 fills | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $12,088 | +$1,692 +14% | 22 |
| 97d | conotocaurius | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,251 | +$201 +16% | 22 |
| 98d | Sticky-Closing2 fills | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | SellNo78¢ → 100¢ | $3,809 | −$1,093 −29% | — |
| 98d | pantomime | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,617 | +$356 +22% | 23 |
| 98d | HornyBibi | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,494 | +$498 +33% | 24 |
| 98d | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | BuyYes29¢ → 0¢ | $1,202 | −$1,202 −100% | 26 | |
| 98d | nakam | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $4,264 | +$489 +11% | 22 |
| 98d | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$149 +12% | 22 | |
| 98d | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,571 | +$299 +19% | 23 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and July 12, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of Iran’s present or future policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a policy, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that Iran will make such an announcement; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional policy rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a the policy is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, including the Iranian military, and its authorized representatives.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.