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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 0% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 14 | 0% | — | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 173d | April 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,578 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 175d | makinta3 fills | April 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,369 | +$17 +0.2% | 20 |
| 175d | JoeBlack01 | April 21 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,126 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 176d | Huludubu | April 21 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,495 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 177d | Fumbling-Oldie | April 21 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,092 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 177d | Renan20304 fills | April 21 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $13,537 | −$100 −0.7% | — |
| 177d | LulaVaiPerder3 fills | April 21 | SellNo>99¢ | $41,716 | −$185 −0.4% | — |
| 177d | Arielf | April 21 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,086 | −$14 −1.3% | — |
| 177d | bmm2 | April 21 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,684 | −$7 −0.4% | — |
| 177d | 65765757 | April 21 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,080 | −$12 −0.4% | — |
| 177d | onekey09 | April 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,909 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 178d | Lamantinka2 fills | April 21 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,085 | −$13 −0.4% | — |
| 178d | cissini | April 21 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,067 | −$30 −0.4% | — |
| 178d | sameday12 fills | April 21 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $45,987 | +$1,551 +3.4% | 21 |
| 178d | Odysseus7 | April 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,251 | +$13 +0.3% | 20 |
| 179d | Klutzy-User | April 21 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,466 | −$86 −3.5% | — |
| 179d | M2sx92kljs42 | April 21 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,518 | −$82 −5.4% | — |
| 179d | DooBieZ | April 21 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,621 | +$31 +1.9% | 20 |
| 179d | 0x9ffe…41d0 | April 21 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,877 | +$29 +1.5% | 20 |
| 179d | Huludubu | April 21 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,471 | +$29 +1.2% | 20 |
| 179d | 0xbF4d202382 | April 21 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,116 | −$29 −2.6% | — |
| 179d | Anon723 | April 21 | SellYes4¢ → 0¢ | $1,301 | +$1,301 +100% | — |
| 180d | 0xbF4d202382 | April 21 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,337 | +$171 +13% | 23 |
| 180d | Tbhidk-17674 fills | April 21 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $20,011 | +$3,952 +20% | 23 |
| 180d | April 21 | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $5,848 | −$950 −16% | — | |
| 180d | kohalacoastgabe | April 21 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$289 +19% | 23 |
| 180d | Lamantinka | April 21 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $2,034 | +$418 +21% | 23 |
| 180d | Bink_7 | April 21 | BuyYes19¢ → 0¢ | $1,407 | −$1,407 −100% | 27 |
| 180d | Anon7235 fills | April 21 | BuyYes14¢ → 0¢ | $7,297 | −$7,297 −100% | 36 |
| 180d | KrackenSruster | April 21 | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $3,478 | −$614 −18% | — |
| 180d | Jsmiler2 fills | April 21 | BuyYes22¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 29 |
| 180d | April 21 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,531 | −$151 −9.9% | — | |
| 181d | April 21 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $19,000 | +$1,860 +9.8% | 21 | |
| 181d | anas10 | April 21 | SellYes8¢ → 0¢ | $1,068 | +$1,068 +100% | — |
| 181d | LulaVaiPerder10 fills | April 21 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $28,334 | +$5,404 +19% | 20 |
| 181d | cissini | April 21 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $7,043 | +$1,053 +15% | 22 |
| 181d | M2sx92kljs423 fills | April 21 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $7,696 | +$1,260 +16% | 21 |
| 181d | Renan20304 fills | April 21 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $5,769 | +$1,201 +21% | 20 |
| 181d | April 21 | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $3,311 | −$681 −21% | — | |
| 181d | bmm22 fills | April 21 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,865 | +$426 +15% | 21 |
| 182d | April 21 | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,704 | −$296 −17% | — | |
| 182d | April 21 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,169 | +$83 +7.1% | 21 | |
| 183d | DooBieZ | April 14 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,598 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 183d | Traumatic-AirportNew account | April 21 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,017 | −$54 −5.3% | — |
| 183d | April 14 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,307 | −$7 −0.1% | — | |
| 183d | westminster3 fills | April 21 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $24,035 | +$2,707 +11% | 21 |
| 183d | Laurenman3 fills | April 21 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $4,510 | +$490 +11% | 21 |
| 183d | onekey09 | April 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,905 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 183d | westminster | April 14 | SellNo>99¢ | $15,725 | −$24 −0.2% | — |
| 183d | PolBandit | April 21 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $10,070 | +$530 +5.3% | 20 |
| 183d | GCNO1 | April 14 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 183d | April 14 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,497 | −$4 −0.1% | — | |
| 183d | newnewuser | April 14 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,191 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 183d | greengasper | April 14 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,031 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 184d | Myway | April 21 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,999 | −$198 −9.9% | — |
| 184d | April 21 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,888 | −$187 −9.9% | — | |
| 184d | ranger442 fills | April 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,325 | +$59 +0.2% | 20 |
| 184d | governmentair | April 21 | SellYes8¢ → 0¢ | $1,056 | +$1,056 +100% | — |
| 184d | Arielf | April 21 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,012 | +$88 +8.7% | 21 |
| 184d | M2sx92kljs42 | April 14 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,895 | −$18 −0.4% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for April 21 means the market gives it about 0%.