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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −2 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 258d |  shiken | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,093 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 258d | Matelleti | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,496 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 258d | ggb12345 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 258d |  Gorgeous- | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,027 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 258d | thegrends | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,492 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 258d |  JJo2 fills | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $3,682 | +$413 +11% | 20 |
| 258d | polpol37 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $27,914 | −$56 −0.2% | — |
| 258d | PikaCHU448 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,540 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 258d | Modern-Blight | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,001 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 258d | hfv | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,742 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 258d |  zb8 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,463 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 258d | MT-AR2 fills | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,884 | −$139 −4.8% | — |
| 258d | Spicy-Work | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,450 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 258d | Evergreen-Ounce | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,752 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 258d |  ScottyNooo7 fills | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $57,886 | +$3,319 +5.7% | 20 |
| 258d | 56ughghj | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,771 | −$14 −0.3% | — |
| 258d | 56ughghj | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,785 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 258d | alumbra | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,891 | −$9 −0.3% | — |
| 258d | 666WWW | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $5,202 | −$16 −0.3% | — |
| 258d | 666WWW | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,216 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 258d | GameChan2 fills | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $22,819 | −$957 −4.2% | — |
| 258d | Adventurous-Evaluator2 fills | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,572 | −$209 −8.1% | — |
| 258d | sigmakappa | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,198 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 258d |  BeneGesseritVoice2 fills | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,323 | +$59 +1.4% | 20 |
| 258d | Adventurous-Evaluator | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,307 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 258d |  PaddyAlpha7 fills | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $9,887 | +$710 +7.2% | 20 |
| 258d | phonefarm | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,310 | −$34 −1.5% | — |
| 258d | Spicy-Work | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,440 | +$12 +0.8% | 20 |
| 258d | Mrfuture | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,176 | −$18 −0.8% | — |
| 258d | itsnotmeiswear | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,515 | −$46 −1.8% | — |
| 258d | koolaidbob | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,980 | −$20 −1.0% | — |
| 258d | Riddle-Master2 fills | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,772 | +$23 +0.8% | 20 |
| 258d | sch3nnx | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,035 | −$57 −1.9% | — |
| 258d | hesitant | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,585 | −$42 −1.6% | — |
| 258d | Incognitoo2 fills | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $5,087 | −$419 −8.2% | — |
| 258d | whitedolphin | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,093 | +$16 +0.8% | 20 |
| 258d |  HolyMoses7 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,890 | +$110 +2.2% | 20 |
| 258d | Awful-ForestryNew account | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,187 | −$33 −2.8% | — |
| 258d |  RolandDrump | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,193 | −$19 −1.6% | — |
| 258d | cocococococo | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,246 | −$62 −5.0% | — |
| 258d | Misty-Consul | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,397 | −$52 −3.7% | — |
| 258d | Saltyballs | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,510 | −$99 −3.9% | — |
| 258d | Bustling-Total | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,777 | −$216 −3.7% | — |
| 259d | sigmakappa | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,160 | +$41 +3.5% | 20 |
| 259d | Nevermarginal | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,074 | −$37 −3.4% | — |
| 259d |  Chims | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,140 | +$64 +5.6% | 20 |
| 259d | Pokadur | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyYes9¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 25 |
| 259d | cashy | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,268 | +$246 +7.5% | 20 |
| 259d |  niitoxyz | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,092 | −$161 −7.7% | — |
| 259d | GummiMummi | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $5,370 | +$346 +6.4% | 20 |
| 259d |  ImJustKen | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,656 | +$125 +7.5% | 20 |
| 259d | baliorn | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,600 | −$170 −2.2% | — |
| 259d | Gambler9527 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,748 | −$40 −1.5% | — |
| 259d | ScottyNooo2 fills | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,808 | −$81 −2.9% | — |
| 259d | Moonshot10194 fills | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $17,431 | +$4,455 +26% | 21 |
| 259d | Bammer2 fills | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $14,918 | −$545 −3.7% | — |
| 259d | veindeep | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,617 | +$62 +3.8% | 20 |
| 259d | Gambler95272 fills | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,642 | +$146 +5.5% | 21 |
| 259d | therunout2 fills | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $4,813 | −$688 −14% | — |
| 259d | culat0r | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,581 | +$66 +4.2% | 21 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.