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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55-60% | 100% | 0 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 14d |
| <40% | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 14d |
| 40-45% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 14d |
| 45-50% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 14d |
| 50-55% | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 14d |
| 60%+ | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 14d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22d | forinnerpsandr1x112222 fills | 55-60% | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,638 | +$9 +0.2% | 10 |
| 25d | zubizubizu3 fills | 55-60% | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,877 | +$62 +1.1% | 10 |
| 26d | Kutoba | 55-60% | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,059 | −$41 −3.9% | — |
| 26d | Laoaoaiaiaiajnvff | 55-60% | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,063 | +$302 +28% | 10 |
| 26d | VGR22 | 60%+ | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,129 | +$62 +5.5% | 10 |
| 26d |  vinii | 60%+ | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,022 | +$78 +7.6% | 10 |
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted. Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 55-60% means the market gives it about 100%.