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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Heavy booster explodes? | 100% | +26 pts | +16 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 74d |
| Super Heavy booster explodes? | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 31 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Successful splash down? | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Successful splash down? | 100% | +32 pts | +28 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 74d |
| March 31 | 0% | +2 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| By May 22 | 100% | +39 pts | +40 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 74d |
| By May 31 | 100% | +10 pts | +13 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| By May 21 | 0% | −50 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 15 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 21 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 30 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 28 | 0% | +2 pts | +2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| By June 30 | 100% | +2 pts | +6 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 14 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 20 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 7 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 147d | matchamission | Successful splash down? | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,640 | +$11 +0.1% | 4 |
| 147d | NeoOracle2 fills | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,654 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 147d | BABELCONSTEL | By May 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,810 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 147d | Immediate-Hip | Successful splash down? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,636 | −$27 −1.0% | — |
| 147d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Successful splash down? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,099 | +$16 +0.7% | 4 |
| 147d |  Kalags | Successful splash down? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,426 | +$14 +1.0% | 4 |
| 147d |  TBill12 fills | Successful splash down? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,279 | +$23 +1.0% | 4 |
| 147d |  Hakei. | Successful splash down? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,431 | +$35 +1.0% | 4 |
| 147d | bondfolio | Successful splash down? | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,359 | +$72 +5.3% | 4 |
| 147d |  Ambitious-Spat | By May 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,263 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 147d | 070101140 | By May 22 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,241 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 147d | 070101140 | Super Heavy booster explodes? | SellYes81¢ → 100¢ | $4,134 | −$996 −24% | — |
| 147d | syb5a | Successful splash down? | SellNo46¢ → 0¢ | $1,376 | +$1,376 +100% | — |
| 147d |  AsTiTutNotPadu | By May 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 147d | 070101140 | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,998 | +$132 +2.6% | 4 |
| 147d | 1walrus2 fills | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,025 | +$71 +1.0% | 4 |
| 147d | KiruaTrading | Successful splash down? | SellYes53¢ → 100¢ | $1,074 | −$949 −88% | — |
| 147d |  LadyLuck22 fills | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $4,346 | +$877 +20% | 4 |
| 147d |  AgricultureSecretary2 fills | By May 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,181 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 147d | AgricultureSecretary | By June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,550 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 147d | TBill1 | By June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,758 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 147d |  Maximus222 fills | By May 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,080 | +$74 +1.2% | 20 |
| 147d | Little-Anguish | Successful splash down? | BuyNo45¢ → 0¢ | $1,039 | −$1,039 −100% | 4 |
| 147d | AgricultureSecretary | By May 22 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,191 | +$32 +1.0% | 20 |
| 147d | TBill1 | By May 22 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $9,991 | +$330 +3.3% | 20 |
| 147d |  Chucklehuck | By May 22 | SellYes64¢ → 100¢ | $1,115 | −$631 −57% | — |
| 147d | BABELCONSTEL | By May 22 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,400 | +$276 +12% | 20 |
| 147d | rwcoffee | Super Heavy booster explodes? | SellNo19¢ → 0¢ | $1,248 | +$1,248 +100% | — |
| 147d | Degenerate-Dude2 fills | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,532 | +$37 +0.8% | 4 |
| 147d |  Hyperlong | By May 31 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,366 | +$184 +7.8% | 20 |
| 147d | darthgeek | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,483 | +$16 +1.1% | 4 |
| 147d | TPAA | Super Heavy booster explodes? | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,840 | −$460 −25% | — |
| 147d | Immediate-Hip2 fills | Successful splash down? | BuyYes53¢ → 100¢ | $3,484 | +$3,120 +90% | 10 |
| 147d | KiruaTrading | Successful splash down? | BuyYes53¢ → 100¢ | $1,072 | +$951 +89% | 4 |
| 147d | Ambitious-Spat | By May 31 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,190 | +$74 +6.2% | 21 |
| 148d | yikaizhao19982 fills | Successful splash down? | BuyNo45¢ → 0¢ | $4,045 | −$4,045 −100% | 5 |
| 148d | zhj9910000 | Super Heavy booster explodes? | SellNo25¢ → 0¢ | $1,009 | +$1,009 +100% | — |
| 148d | zhj9910000 | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyNo28¢ → 0¢ | $1,100 | −$1,100 −100% | 4 |
| 148d | LadyLuck2 | By May 21 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,011 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 148d | KiruaTrading | By May 21 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,626 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 148d | Chucklehuck | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $2,430 | +$570 +23% | 4 |
| 148d |  tomatosauce2 | By May 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,084 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 148d | 1walrus | By May 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,381 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 148d | IronE | By May 22 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$82 +7.5% | 22 |
| 148d | discombobulated-chicken | By May 21 | BuyYes95¢ → 0¢ | $2,315 | −$2,315 −100% | 20 |
| 148d |  Pranjal | By May 21 | BuyYes98¢ → 0¢ | $7,300 | −$7,300 −100% | 20 |
| 148d | SweetChariot2 fills | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,617 | +$29 +1.1% | 4 |
| 149d | Skip-instructs-send-all-funds-to-this-acc | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $3,959 | +$894 +23% | 4 |
| 150d |  Vanquish3 fills | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $4,471 | +$762 +17% | 4 |
| 150d | ezel-de | By May 31 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,503 | +$245 +16% | 20 |
| 151d | boryamba | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$250 +21% | 4 |
| 151d |  ZorroDeLaVega | By May 22 | BuyNo64¢ → 0¢ | $1,867 | −$1,867 −100% | 25 |
| 151d | Soupy-Pace | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,457 | +$387 +27% | 4 |
| 156d | SweetChariot | May 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,890 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 157d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | May 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,424 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 157d |  Relaccsed | May 15 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,154 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
| 157d | 1walrus2 fills | May 15 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,104 | +$47 +1.5% | 20 |
| 163d |  Rr55 | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,146 | +$54 +4.7% | 4 |
| 163d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,716 | +$229 +6.2% | 4 |
| 169d |  beenraping2 fills | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,019 | +$12 +0.2% | 4 |
vobbler1 sharesChucklehuck5,433 sharesThis is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Super Heavy booster explodes? means the market gives it about 100%.