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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 15 | 100% | 0 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30 | 100% | +23 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 22 | 100% | +46 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 31 | 100% | +12 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 121d | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,061 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 121d | Ordon2 fills | June 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $12,138 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 121d | June 15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $30,862 | +$172 +0.6% | 20 | |
| 121d | 0x3670279e844f5005d7ed8cc37ca562eaadef34f92 fills | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $20,127 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | 0xfifr4t0g0vkdkefp3 fills | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,983 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | C03B | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $128,232 | +$128 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | b4k9xj2wh | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $599,400 | +$600 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $199,800 | +$200 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 121d | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $199,800 | +$200 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 121d | Ordon | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $119,880 | +$120 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | notsosure62 fills | June 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $499,000 | −$1,000 −0.2% | — |
| 121d | BingFing | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,986 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | tresmigos | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,612 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | szn42FamilyGuy | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,710 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | 0xDonaldTrump | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,691 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | IRAN2028 | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,619 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | DOGEinsider | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,658 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | ZebraScope | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,398 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | EdwardGaming | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,261 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | BoobyBrain | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,269 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | melonmanm | June 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,209 | −$13 −0.3% | — |
| 121d | RingoJuJu | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,140 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | mesobag | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,154 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | blackbeardclan | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,893 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | KrishnaPatel | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,243 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | ZiggyWiggy | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,409 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | June 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $999,000 | −$1,000 −0.1% | — | |
| 121d | notsosure6 | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $442,380 | +$443 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | ParsnipDessert | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,096 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $28,030 | +$28 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | Watchful-Fund | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,697 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | June 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $19,980 | −$20 −0.1% | — | |
| 121d | yerrrrrrg | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,839 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | 033033033 | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,673 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 |
| 121d | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $21,956 | +$44 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 121d | June 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $32,767 | −$66 −0.2% | — | |
| 121d | bullmarketvibes | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $29,970 | +$30 +0.1% | 20 |
| 121d | June 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $72,064 | −$144 −0.2% | — | |
| 121d | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,798 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 121d | BrightStars3 fills | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $60,989 | +$122 +0.2% | 20 |
| 121d | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 121d | June 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,988 | −$12 −0.2% | — | |
| 121d | June 15 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $46,241 | +$796 +1.7% | 20 | |
| 121d | June 15 | BuyNo<1¢ | $1,102 | −$1,102 −100% | 21 | |
| 121d | June 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,244 | −$11 −0.2% | — | |
| 122d | June 15 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $22,540 | −$2,056 −9.1% | — | |
| 122d | June 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $49,950 | −$50 −0.1% | — | |
| 122d | bobe2.1 | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $257,019 | +$257 +0.1% | 20 |
| 122d | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,270 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 122d | nelius | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $99,900 | +$100 +0.1% | 20 |
| 122d | hakaniyem | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,000 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 122d | cengogo2 fills | June 15 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,278 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 122d | cengogo2 fills | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,280 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 123d | June 15 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $12,141 | +$3,259 +27% | 26 | |
| 123d | Elias.Thornwell | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,104 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 123d | Elliptical-TattlerNew account | June 15 | BuyNo<1¢ | $1,040 | −$1,040 −100% | 35 |
| 123d | Weird-Milestone | June 15 | BuyNo<1¢ | $1,006 | −$1,006 −100% | 20 |
| 123d | Umaroth | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 123d | -Mr-Meeseeks | June 15 | BuyNo<1¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 20 |
| 123d | June 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for June 15 means the market gives it about 100%.