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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | +68 pts | +74 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | −2 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 169d | DSW-328.J7 | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,163 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 169d | conotocaurius | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,077 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 169d |  x.o | June 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $8,862 | +$138 +1.6% | 4 |
| 169d |  OraculumNobius2 fills | June 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,834 | +$109 +1.6% | 4 |
| 169d | GCNO13 fills | June 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,815 | +$253 +4.3% | 4 |
| 169d | yakudzan | June 30 | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,476 | −$499 −34% | — |
| 169d | apple-pi | June 30 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,147 | +$375 +9.0% | 4 |
| 169d |  betwick | June 30 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $2,290 | +$783 +34% | 4 |
| 169d |  tupac8 | June 30 | BuyNo38¢ → 0¢ | $1,850 | −$1,850 −100% | 5 |
| 169d |  cookiejar3 fills | June 30 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $5,787 | +$1,917 +33% | 4 |
| 169d |  tourists | June 30 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,059 | +$202 +19% | 4 |
| 169d | AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA3 fills | June 30 | BuyNo72¢ → 0¢ | $5,172 | −$5,172 −100% | 4 |
| 170d |  Eia | June 30 | SellNo70¢ → 0¢ | $1,599 | +$1,599 +100% | — |
| 179d | Skdel3 fills | June 30 | BuyYes63¢ → 100¢ | $13,625 | +$7,998 +59% | 4 |
| 199d | Somber-Phrase | March 31 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,480 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 199d |  ZhangMuZhi.. | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,682 | +$7 +0.2% | 4 |
| 199d | JusDuC | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,793 | +$7 +0.4% | 4 |
| 199d | qwe258 | March 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,986 | +$17 +0.6% | 4 |
| 199d | Eia | March 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,980 | +$20 +1.0% | 4 |
| 199d | Izikbuk20422 fills | March 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,996 | +$105 +1.2% | 4 |
| 199d |  wish- | March 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,626 | +$30 +1.1% | 4 |
| 200d |  Tenebrus7 | June 30 | BuyNo74¢ → 0¢ | $3,549 | −$3,549 −100% | 4 |
| 200d | Trustinghorse2 fills | March 31 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $5,048 | −$353 −7.0% | — |
| 206d |  p12523 fills | March 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $8,941 | +$400 +4.5% | 4 |
| 210d | notssf32 fills | March 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $4,573 | +$301 +6.6% | 4 |
| 210d |  Naichli | March 31 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $4,611 | −$366 −7.9% | — |
| 215d | Awkward-Bride | March 31 | SellYes8¢ → 0¢ | $2,045 | +$2,045 +100% | — |
| 219d | H0m0ThugMacro | March 31 | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,083 | −$144 −13% | — |
| 220d | lorry3122 | March 31 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,348 | +$167 +12% | 4 |
| 222d | Crowded-Sprout | March 31 | BuyYes39¢ → 0¢ | $1,020 | −$1,020 −100% | 4 |
| 222d | exposito | March 31 | SellNo58¢ → 100¢ | $2,043 | −$1,476 −72% | — |
| 223d | 0x8fe4…8970 | March 31 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,598 | −$146 −9.2% | — |
| 223d | Awkward-BrideNew account | March 31 | BuyYes42¢ → 0¢ | $2,043 | −$2,043 −100% | 20 |
| 224d | Trustinghorse7 fills | March 31 | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $20,605 | +$6,429 +31% | 4 |
| 226d | afdafdafdafdafd | March 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,025 | +$152 +7.5% | 4 |
| 227d | chilloutTt | March 31 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,773 | −$327 −12% | — |
| 227d | likemike1232 fills | March 31 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $38,834 | +$5,297 +14% | 4 |
| 228d | eastpak | March 31 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,479 | −$111 −7.5% | — |
| 230d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae162 | March 31 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $10,029 | −$755 −7.5% | — |
| 230d | Each-Bench | March 31 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,096 | −$158 −7.5% | — |
| 230d | Tenebrus7 | March 31 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $5,641 | −$360 −6.4% | — |
| 231d | p1252 | March 31 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $4,982 | −$318 −6.4% | — |
| 231d | Huludubu | March 31 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,963 | −$125 −6.4% | — |
| 233d |  ReverseBF | March 31 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,883 | −$120 −6.4% | — |
| 233d | Unsteady-Quinoa | March 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $7,324 | +$551 +7.5% | 4 |
| 234d |  ImJustKen | March 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $6,308 | +$548 +8.7% | 4 |
| 235d |  GoriIIa | June 30 | BuyNo67¢ → 0¢ | $1,247 | −$1,247 −100% | 4 |
| 235d | GoriIIa | March 31 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $27,569 | +$3,557 +13% | 4 |
| 235d | il1 | March 31 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,083 | +$162 +15% | 4 |
| 235d | Tender-Year | March 31 | BuyYes15¢ → 0¢ | $1,050 | −$1,050 −100% | 7 |
| 235d |  DickTurbin2 fills | March 31 | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $11,953 | −$2,109 −18% | — |
| 235d | Tender-Year | March 31 | SellYes16¢ → 0¢ | $1,098 | +$1,098 +100% | — |
| 235d | Somber-PhraseNew account | March 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $2,056 | +$427 +21% | 9 |
| 235d | Tender-Year | March 31 | SellNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,077 | −$253 −23% | — |
| 236d | Czforty | March 31 | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,148 | −$229 −20% | — |
| 236d | chilloutTt | March 31 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $2,604 | +$496 +19% | 4 |
| 236d | Czforty | March 31 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,129 | +$248 +22% | 4 |
| 236d | exposito | March 31 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $2,843 | +$676 +24% | 4 |
| 236d | Huludubu | March 31 | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,161 | +$327 +28% | 4 |
| 236d | xelaha | March 31 | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,160 | +$301 +26% | 4 |
Freem051,500 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for June 30 means the market gives it about 100%.