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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 100% | 0 pts | −1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 295d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae162 | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,064 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 295d |  ScottyNooo | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,852 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 295d | Mikelaawrey | December 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,087 | −$13 −0.6% | — |
| 295d | Michael5289 | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 295d |  KingZeManel | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 295d | FunTicketsSoldHere | December 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | +$6 +0.6% | 20 |
| 295d | aviato | December 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,100 | +$24 +1.1% | 20 |
| 295d |  Dr.mett | December 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,478 | +$47 +1.9% | 20 |
| 295d |  Car | December 31 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,192 | +$98 +8.2% | 21 |
| 296d |  SPIT | December 31 | SellNo98¢ → 0¢ | $5,063 | +$5,063 +100% | — |
| 296d | big6big8 | December 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 0¢ | $10,850 | −$10,850 −100% | 20 |
| 296d | alwaysOn | December 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 0¢ | $1,470 | −$1,470 −100% | 20 |
| 297d |  GonTanaka2 | December 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 0¢ | $4,600 | −$4,600 −100% | 20 |
| 298d |  Naichli | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 0¢ | $1,423 | −$1,423 −100% | 20 |
| 298d | SPIT | December 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 0¢ | $6,714 | −$6,714 −100% | 20 |
| 306d |  Noooooooop2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 0¢ | $2,951 | −$2,951 −100% | 20 |
| 307d | Labubull | December 31 | SellNo99¢ → 0¢ | $4,340 | +$4,340 +100% | — |
| 307d |  elmcap2 | December 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 0¢ | $2,920 | −$2,920 −100% | 20 |
| 307d |  spectral-mango-protocol | December 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 0¢ | $1,010 | −$1,010 −100% | 20 |
| 312d | Limp-Jicama2 fills | December 31 | SellNo96¢ → 0¢ | $4,792 | +$4,792 +100% | — |
| 313d | Far-Flung-Knickers | December 31 | SellNo96¢ → 0¢ | $1,090 | +$1,090 +100% | — |
| 313d | denizz | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 0¢ | $2,479 | −$2,479 −100% | 20 |
| 313d | k00pa | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 0¢ | $3,357 | −$3,357 −100% | 20 |
| 313d | labubull25 fills | December 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 0¢ | $11,910 | −$11,910 −100% | 20 |
| 313d |  WhiteLivesMatter2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 0¢ | $10,012 | −$10,012 −100% | 20 |
| 314d | Labubull | December 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 20 |
| 316d | yinyi1232 fills | December 31 | SellNo94¢ → 0¢ | $2,348 | +$2,348 +100% | — |
| 318d |  Dapsy | December 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 0¢ | $1,769 | −$1,769 −100% | 20 |
| 318d |  GollumGekko | December 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 0¢ | $1,192 | −$1,192 −100% | 20 |
| 319d | Limp-Jicama2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 0¢ | $2,291 | −$2,291 −100% | 20 |
| 320d | goodpiglet | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 0¢ | $1,277 | −$1,277 −100% | 20 |
| 320d | Dapsy | November 30 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,411 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 321d | cnerwuiva | November 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,000 | +$47 +0.3% | 20 |
| 322d |  yorkidogg | November 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,761 | +$26 +1.5% | 20 |
| 323d | WhiteLivesMatter | November 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,515 | +$120 +1.4% | 20 |
| 323d |  Jellow2 | December 31 | BuyNo90¢ → 0¢ | $1,802 | −$1,802 −100% | 20 |
| 324d |  paddaa | November 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,129 | −$16 −1.4% | — |
| 326d |  AllByMyseIf | November 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,436 | +$58 +1.3% | 20 |
| 327d |  tunatyler | November 30 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$44 +1.8% | 20 |
| 328d |  classified | November 30 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,332 | −$30 −2.2% | — |
| 339d |  User175 | December 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 0¢ | $5,000 | −$5,000 −100% | 20 |
| 344d | Dapsy | November 30 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,891 | +$76 +4.0% | 20 |
| 346d | leodotfi | December 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 20 |
| 347d |  MisTKy3 | November 30 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,228 | +$51 +4.2% | 20 |
WhiteLivesMatter10,958 shares
Predictor30007,108 shares
MasonsConqueredRome6,518 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Nigerian soil or any official Nigerian embassy or consulate by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Nigerian ground territory or any official Nigerian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Nigerian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Nigerian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 100%.
