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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 100% | — | +99 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| April 15 | 100% | +86 pts | +80 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 30 | 100% | +71 pts | +62 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| May 31 | 100% | +51 pts | +49 pts | >99¢ · >99¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30 | 100% | +41 pts | +36 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 2 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| December 31 | 100% | +24 pts | +26 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 74d |
| April 10 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · >99¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| May 15 | 100% | +58 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 6 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| March 15 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 189d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,597 | −$3 −0.1% | — | |
| 189d | Awkward-Bride7 fills | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $72,927 | −$73 −0.1% | — |
| 189d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,533 | −$2 −0.1% | — | |
| 189d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,497 | −$4 −0.1% | — | |
| 189d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,994 | −$6 −0.1% | — | |
| 189d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,379 | −$1 −0.1% | — | |
| 189d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $29,970 | −$30 −0.1% | — | |
| 189d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $49,950 | −$50 −0.1% | — | |
| 189d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,988 | −$12 −0.1% | — | |
| 189d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — | |
| 189d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,992 | −$8 −0.1% | — | |
| 189d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $47,426 | −$50 −0.1% | — | |
| 189d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $59,940 | −$60 −0.1% | — | |
| 189d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $29,950 | −$50 −0.2% | — | |
| 190d | William420 | April 7 | BuyNo<1¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 23 |
| 190d | Lorans21 | April 7 | BuyNo<1¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 20 |
| 190d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $183,343 | −$184 −0.1% | — | |
| 190d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — | |
| 190d | trashtier | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,882 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $16,184 | −$16 −0.1% | — | |
| 190d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,298 | −$2 −0.1% | — | |
| 190d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,498 | −$3 −0.1% | — | |
| 190d | beatyesterday4 fills | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $15,978 | −$22 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,978 | −$22 −0.2% | — | |
| 190d | yougotme3 fills | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $10,292 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $13,986 | −$14 −0.1% | — | |
| 190d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — | |
| 190d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,133 | −$2 −0.1% | — | |
| 190d | puparia | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,682 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,506 | −$4 −0.1% | — | |
| 190d | ZouBloUBlou | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,100 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | Trustinghorse8 fills | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $44,251 | −$76 −0.2% | — |
| 190d | discombobulated-chicken | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $10,081 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — | |
| 190d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,679 | −$8 −0.1% | — | |
| 190d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — | |
| 190d | Ikkk852 | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,416 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | wexlers | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,614 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | April 7 | BuyNo<1¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 25 | |
| 190d | Ordon | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | Yeueu | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $100,001 | −$100 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,505 | −$2 −0.1% | — | |
| 190d | Tir-1 | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $49,950 | −$50 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | TwoTierKeir | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,498 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | April 7 | BuyNo<1¢ | $1,410 | −$1,410 −100% | 23 | |
| 190d | generalVR | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $14,985 | −$15 −0.1% | — | |
| 190d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,314 | −$3 −0.1% | — | |
| 190d | dube2 fills | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,933 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | Doriath | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,196 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | April 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $29,970 | +$30 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 190d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,597 | −$3 −0.1% | — | |
| 190d | BrightStars | April 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $47,331 | +$47 +0.1% | 20 |
| 190d | kobie3 | April 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $36,383 | +$36 +0.1% | 20 |
| 190d | meetgoodlife2 fills | April 7 | BuyNo<1¢ | $9,423 | −$9,423 −100% | 37 |
| 190d | Outlying-Hearth | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,114 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,371 | −$4 −0.1% | — | |
| 190d | Cheerful-Nucleotidase | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,937 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | hanounatozzz | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,532 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 190d | April 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $33,467 | −$34 −0.1% | — |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for April 7 means the market gives it about 100%.