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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 30 | 100% | +97 pts | +94 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 2 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 3 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 4 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 5 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 6 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 7 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 8 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 9 | 0% | −4 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 10 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 11 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 12 | 0% | −3 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 13 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 14 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 15 | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 16 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 17 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 18 | 0% | −2 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 19 | 0% | −2 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 20 | 0% | −4 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 21 | 0% | −3 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 22 | 0% | −2 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 23 | 0% | −2 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 24 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 25 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 26 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 27 | 0% | −3 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 28 | 0% | −4 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 29 | 0% | −7 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 31 | 0% | −2 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| No announcement by Jan 31 | 0% | −84 pts | −52 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 260d | DieselDiesel | No announcement by Jan 31 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,099 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 260d | DieselDiesel | January 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,115 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 260d |  SnowballHustle | January 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,523 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 260d | pbshine | January 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,328 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 260d |  scout | January 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,784 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 260d | Abandoned-Counsel2 fills | January 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,707 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 260d | YYDS9527 | January 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,496 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 260d |  ScottyNooo2 fills | January 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,267 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 260d | ScottyNooo | January 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,383 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 260d |  chungguskhan | January 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,698 | +$40 +0.7% | 20 |
| 260d |  Bertapotamous | No announcement by Jan 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,418 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 260d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | January 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,436 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 260d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No announcement by Jan 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $16,577 | +$101 +0.6% | 20 |
| 260d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly2 fills | January 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,823 | +$146 +1.5% | 20 |
| 260d |  mombil2 fills | January 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,357 | +$94 +4.0% | 21 |
| 260d |  Robbb | January 30 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,579 | +$83 +5.3% | 21 |
| 260d |  AgricultureSecretary | January 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,352 | +$48 +2.1% | 21 |
| 260d |  SnailMilker | January 30 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,811 | +$98 +5.4% | 21 |
| 260d |  Roflan-ludoman | No announcement by Jan 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,226 | +$49 +4.0% | 21 |
| 260d |  praktor | January 30 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,665 | +$159 +6.0% | 21 |
| 260d | BigSteve | January 30 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,077 | +$70 +6.5% | 22 |
| 260d | jak0b | No announcement by Jan 31 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,627 | −$105 −6.5% | — |
| 260d |  UwO | January 30 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $6,726 | +$422 +6.3% | 22 |
| 260d | YYDS9527 | January 30 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,333 | +$82 +6.2% | 22 |
| 260d |  arjennnnn | January 30 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,747 | +$104 +5.9% | 21 |
| 260d | mackcro | No announcement by Jan 31 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,781 | −$101 −5.7% | — |
| 260d | alvinnwins | January 30 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,957 | −$160 −5.4% | — |
| 260d | harthvader | January 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$323 +3.2% | 21 |
| 260d | Dapangtou | January 30 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | −$52 −5.2% | — |
| 260d | Dapangtou2 fills | January 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,361 | +$78 +3.3% | 21 |
| 260d | lingjing3 | January 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,180 | +$40 +3.4% | 21 |
| 260d | widheji | January 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,652 | +$63 +3.8% | 21 |
| 260d | alvinnwins | January 30 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,925 | +$192 +6.6% | 22 |
| 260d |  taut-dogwood | January 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,656 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 260d | products | January 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 260d | anjin9872 fills | January 30 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,583 | +$183 +5.1% | 21 |
| 260d | Voluminous-SurpriseNew account | January 30 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,990 | +$109 +5.5% | 23 |
| 260d | influenz.eth | No announcement by Jan 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,597 | +$84 +5.3% | 21 |
| 260d | diadjaid2 fills | January 30 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $5,680 | +$320 +5.6% | 21 |
| 260d | products | January 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 260d | products | No announcement by Jan 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,044 | +$55 +5.3% | 21 |
| 260d | influenz.eth | January 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,679 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 260d | Barri | January 30 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,301 | +$68 +5.3% | 21 |
| 260d | DieselDiesel5 fills | January 30 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $7,981 | +$419 +5.2% | 21 |
| 260d | DieselDiesel | No announcement by Jan 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,043 | +$57 +5.5% | 21 |
| 260d | iamshooter | No announcement by Jan 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$111 +5.6% | 21 |
| 260d | harrypotterr | January 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,237 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 260d | Kevindoto | No announcement by Jan 31 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $4,401 | +$478 +11% | 23 |
| 260d |  TheGreekTraderPM | January 29 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,638 | −$16 −1.0% | — |
| 260d |  Tejeru | No announcement by Jan 31 | SellYes98¢ → 0¢ | $1,951 | +$1,951 +100% | — |
| 260d | Deafening-Refund | No announcement by Jan 31 | SellYes98¢ → 0¢ | $1,127 | +$1,127 +100% | — |
| 260d |  TheWolfOfPoly2 fills | No announcement by Jan 31 | BuyYes97¢ → 0¢ | $12,125 | −$12,125 −100% | 20 |
| 260d |  WarriorPooh2 fills | No announcement by Jan 31 | SellYes86¢ → 0¢ | $2,995 | +$2,995 +100% | — |
| 260d | ScottyNooo | No announcement by Jan 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 0¢ | $1,400 | −$1,400 −100% | 20 |
| 260d | Roflan-ludoman3 fills | No announcement by Jan 31 | BuyYes84¢ → 0¢ | $3,471 | −$3,471 −100% | 23 |
| 260d |  AllByMyseIf2 fills | January 29 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,751 | +$225 +8.2% | 21 |
| 260d |  .jeet | No announcement by Jan 31 | BuyYes79¢ → 0¢ | $6,232 | −$6,232 −100% | 24 |
| 261d | WarriorPooh3 fills | No announcement by Jan 31 | BuyYes79¢ → 0¢ | $5,285 | −$5,285 −100% | 24 |
| 261d |  NotMasterFan | January 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,004 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 261d | Deafening-Refund | January 29 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,029 | +$135 +6.7% | 22 |
FedMoneyPrinter13,332 shares
heresjimmy11,212 sharesAllByMyseIf3,103 shares
ImJustKen2,206 sharesThis market will resolve according to the next date (ET) on which the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made on a listed date, will also resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. If no qualifying announcement is made by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No nomination before February 1”. The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for January 30 means the market gives it about 100%.