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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enrichment of Uranium | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Oil Sanction Relief | 0% | −1 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Unfreeze Iranian Assets | 0% | −2 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 169d | apple-pi | Unfreeze Iranian Assets | SellNo>99¢ | $2,357 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 169d |  ITHINKTHISISGODLOVER | Oil Sanction Relief | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | ITHINKTHISISGODLOVER | Unfreeze Iranian Assets | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,498 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 169d |  0x039478r87r8yr3f7hd3 fills | Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $27,663 | +$852 +3.1% | 4 |
| 169d | Martinette | Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,645 | +$10 +0.6% | 4 |
| 169d | politickler | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo>99¢ | $1,199 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 170d |  Mr-Krabs | Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz | SellNo>99¢ | $4,716 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 170d | thoodr | Enrichment of Uranium | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,293 | +$11 +0.2% | 4 |
| 170d | thoodr2 fills | Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,976 | +$56 +0.6% | 4 |
| 170d | westminster4 fills | Enrichment of Uranium | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $16,470 | +$1,330 +8.1% | 4 |
| 170d | Some-PannierNew account | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,912 | −$161 −1.5% | — |
| 170d | Rapid-Climate | Oil Sanction Relief | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,095 | −$115 −5.5% | — |
| 170d | 0xe617…f251 | Unfreeze Iranian Assets | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$63 +1.3% | 4 |
| 170d | bear-bees | Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,909 | +$48 +0.8% | 4 |
| 170d |  shingoWAKAYAMA2 fills | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo100¢ | $7,916 | −$40 −0.5% | — |
| 170d | bearbees2 | Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,968 | +$32 +0.8% | 4 |
| 171d | Rapid-Climate | Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,975 | −$25 −1.3% | — |
| 171d | MrBombastic | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo100¢ | $2,176 | −$11 −0.5% | — |
| 171d | nskobic | Unfreeze Iranian Assets | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,294 | −$39 −3.0% | — |
| 171d |  esports0953 fills | Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,915 | +$126 +1.3% | 4 |
| 171d |  johnnyA2 fills | Oil Sanction Relief | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,665 | +$77 +2.1% | 20 |
| 171d | Substantial-Graph | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo100¢ | $1,246 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 171d | OnChainCassandra | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo>99¢ | $3,368 | −$14 −0.4% | — |
| 172d | esports095 | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo>99¢ | $1,248 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 172d | Rapid-Climate | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo>99¢ | $7,968 | −$32 −0.4% | — |
| 172d | wlooo | Oil Sanction Relief | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,980 | +$122 +2.0% | 20 |
| 172d | wlooo2 fills | Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $10,395 | +$173 +1.7% | 4 |
| 172d | Drab-Alliance | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo>99¢ | $1,200 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 172d | wlooo2 fills | Enrichment of Uranium | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,940 | +$60 +0.4% | 4 |
| 172d | KevinLeung | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,294 | −$8 −0.6% | — |
| 172d | Runaround4 fills | Unfreeze Iranian Assets | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $11,825 | +$458 +3.9% | 4 |
| 172d | denizz | Oil Sanction Relief | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,685 | +$63 +2.4% | 20 |
| 172d | DON-JUAN | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,615 | −$21 −0.8% | — |
| 172d | johnnyA | Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,475 | +$26 +1.7% | 4 |
| 172d | AMo | Unfreeze Iranian Assets | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,226 | +$30 +2.5% | 4 |
| 172d | Mr-Krabs2 fills | Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,632 | +$139 +2.1% | 4 |
| 172d | AMo | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,468 | −$20 −0.8% | — |
| 172d | Runaround | Unfreeze Iranian Assets | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,340 | −$60 −2.6% | — |
| 172d | apple-pi | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,213 | −$30 −2.5% | — |
| 172d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Enrichment of Uranium | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,552 | +$57 +2.2% | 4 |
| 173d | AMo | Enrichment of Uranium | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,430 | +$57 +2.4% | 4 |
| 173d | 123pocky | Oil Sanction Relief | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,243 | +$93 +4.2% | 20 |
| 173d | ggfgvvn123 | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,356 | −$32 −2.4% | — |
| 173d |  CornMusketeer | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,724 | −$158 −2.4% | — |
| 174d |  TheSwedishWolf | Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,640 | −$44 −2.7% | — |
| 174d | gybkk | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,110 | −$34 −3.1% | — |
| 174d |  NotBakerMcKenzie | Enrichment of Uranium | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,289 | +$200 +2.7% | 4 |
| 174d | Wagmi420 | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,929 | −$71 −3.7% | — |
| 174d | anon.1980.1233 fills | Enrichment of Uranium | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $14,323 | +$682 +4.8% | 4 |
| 174d | AMo2 fills | Unfreeze Iranian Assets | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,164 | −$163 −5.2% | — |
| 174d |  paddaa | Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,010 | −$26 −2.6% | — |
| 174d | Mr-Krabs | Unfreeze Iranian Assets | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,360 | +$98 +4.2% | 4 |
| 174d | TheSwedishWolf | Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,644 | +$40 +2.5% | 4 |
| 174d | Runaround | Oil Sanction Relief | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $7,999 | +$602 +7.5% | 20 |
| 175d | 0x5316E6519c11735B57E1b551b08F33F21e2f643 | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,471 | −$89 −6.0% | — |
| 175d | Mr-Krabs | Oil Sanction Relief | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $4,575 | +$577 +13% | 21 |
| 175d | nskobic | Unfreeze Iranian Assets | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,160 | +$173 +15% | 5 |
| 175d | usernameneveraccepted | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,363 | −$96 −7.0% | — |
| 175d |  Oval-Rhubarb | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,036 | −$65 −6.3% | — |
| 175d | 8811124 fills | Enrichment of Uranium | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $13,573 | −$1,593 −12% | — |
CigaretteMendoza2,500 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment. The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran. - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Enrichment of Uranium means the market gives it about 0%.