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Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | 100% | +1 pts | −9 pts | >99¢ · >99¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Tehran | 100% | +1 pts | −7 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Oil/Gas | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 227d |  NIRVANA87 | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,496 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 227d | TheLastOfMachine5 fills | Nuclear | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $15,810 | +$929 +5.9% | 4 |
| 227d |  HolyMoses7 | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 227d |  tetrase | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,099 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 227d | Jerzy3 fills | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,477 | +$28 +0.2% | 4 |
| 227d |  noreasapa | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,841 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 227d |  GroyperFinancialServices7 fills | Nuclear | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $86,735 | +$2,376 +2.7% | 4 |
| 227d | dube4 fills | Nuclear | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $19,948 | +$520 +2.6% | 4 |
| 227d | 123412341234 | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,988 | +$12 +0.1% | 4 |
| 227d | Freelist2 fills | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,401 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 227d | SirBondoslot | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $31,768 | +$32 +0.1% | 4 |
| 227d |  DiamondHands113 fills | Nuclear | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $30,032 | +$556 +1.9% | 4 |
| 227d |  scout2 fills | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $29,488 | +$43 +0.1% | 4 |
| 227d |  Snow-White | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,980 | +$20 +0.1% | 4 |
| 227d | idkwhatimdoinggg | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 227d |  Vulture-811 | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,418 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 227d |  BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate3 fills | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $168,545 | +$345 +0.2% | 4 |
| 227d | khalidakup | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,980 | +$20 +0.1% | 4 |
| 227d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly3 fills | Nuclear | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $72,603 | +$1,816 +2.5% | 4 |
| 227d | Hans323 | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $17,258 | +$17 +0.1% | 4 |
| 227d |  Nik-7 fills | Nuclear | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $18,307 | +$129 +0.7% | 4 |
| 227d |  EarthlyDelights | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,496 | +$5 +0.3% | 4 |
| 227d | Complex-TrainingNew account | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 4 |
| 227d | GCNO1 | Nuclear | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,454 | +$15 +0.6% | 4 |
| 227d |  ZhangMuZhi.. | Nuclear | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $19,981 | +$121 +0.6% | 4 |
| 227d | Matelleti | Nuclear | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,100 | +$11 +0.5% | 4 |
| 227d | alliswell4 fills | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $32,570 | +$62 +0.2% | 4 |
| 227d | bettify26 | Nuclear | BuyNo1¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 4 |
| 227d |  UwO10 fills | Nuclear | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $61,059 | −$381 −0.6% | — |
| 228d |  ElvenWisp2 fills | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $30,818 | +$93 +0.3% | 4 |
| 228d |  opolon | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,549 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 228d |  0xSonGoku | Nuclear | SellYes>99¢ | $2,398 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 228d | 0xSonGoku | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,398 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 228d | oa01msm.askfgla-alenfsenmznv3 fills | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,282 | +$46 +0.3% | 4 |
| 228d | SplendidAmadeus2 fills | Nuclear | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,901 | −$221 −3.7% | — |
| 228d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b048 fills | Nuclear | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $38,371 | +$722 +1.9% | 4 |
| 228d | Nik- | Nuclear | SellYes>99¢ | $27,724 | −$56 −0.2% | — |
| 228d |  Kolusha | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,118 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 228d |  niitoxyz | Nuclear | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,992 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 228d |  SmallFishInWhaleStomach3 fills | Nuclear | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $93,290 | +$1,415 +1.5% | 4 |
| 228d | Huludubu3 fills | Nuclear | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,885 | −$47 −0.6% | — |
| 228d | Envious-FeastNew account | Nuclear | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,085 | −$8 −0.7% | — |
| 228d | M888 | Nuclear | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,238 | +$7 +0.6% | 4 |
| 228d |  AcctToBeRetired | Nuclear | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $14,157 | −$100 −0.7% | — |
| 228d |  Mr-Krabs | Nuclear | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,930 | +$70 +1.0% | 4 |
| 228d | nonkenny90 | Nuclear | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,188 | +$12 +1.0% | 4 |
| 228d |  ScottyNooo6 fills | Nuclear | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $16,122 | +$5,715 +35% | 4 |
| 228d |  TeemuPukki2 fills | Nuclear | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $15,673 | +$174 +1.1% | 4 |
| 228d | 00SevenB | Nuclear | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,385 | +$15 +1.1% | 4 |
| 228d | AcctToBeRetired | Nuclear | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $14,143 | +$114 +0.8% | 4 |
| 228d |  HorribleWork | Nuclear | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,683 | +$17 +1.0% | 4 |
| 228d | Laurenman2 fills | Nuclear | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $15,897 | +$162 +1.0% | 4 |
| 228d | FlyingPlaty | Nuclear | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,963 | +$163 +5.5% | 4 |
| 228d |  The-Joker | Nuclear | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,756 | +$137 +7.8% | 4 |
| 228d |  llzl9d9ujfurhuer35 fills | Nuclear | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $15,732 | +$1,440 +9.2% | 4 |
| 228d | Flappyx25 | Nuclear | BuyNo13¢ → 0¢ | $2,335 | −$2,335 −100% | 10 |
| 228d |  Car | Nuclear | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $5,649 | −$489 −8.7% | — |
| 228d | sofia1 | Nuclear | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,812 | −$188 −10% | — |
| 228d | SplendidAmadeus | Nuclear | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $4,696 | +$304 +6.5% | 4 |
| 228d |  Dropper | Nuclear | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,843 | +$219 +7.7% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by US Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the US, Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Nuclear means the market gives it about 100%.