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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 230d | weaklei2 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,754 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 230d |  Cloverince | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,170 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 230d |  OraculumNobius | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 230d |  wish- | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,091 | −$27 −1.3% | — |
| 230d | Laurenman3 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,774 | +$155 +3.3% | 20 |
| 230d | StryK4r | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 230d | timonkosmon | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$14 +0.9% | 20 |
| 231d | blastard | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyYes4¢ → 0¢ | $1,815 | −$1,815 −100% | 25 |
| 231d | Flancho6 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $11,522 | +$256 +2.2% | 20 |
| 231d | Serene-Decision3 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $10,214 | +$186 +1.8% | 20 |
| 231d |  bbetsbetterthany | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,044 | +$36 +1.2% | 20 |
| 231d | weaklei20 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo>99¢ | $104,444 | +$378 +0.4% | 20 |
| 231d | Dit269786 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $19,722 | −$233 −1.2% | — |
| 231d |  Parz1vaI4 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $8,415 | −$620 −7.4% | — |
| 231d | pet2 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,800 | +$29 +0.3% | 20 |
| 231d | kevtp3 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $13,872 | +$126 +0.9% | 20 |
| 232d |  MisterSandman | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,963 | −$37 −0.7% | — |
| 233d |  Gemini456 | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,032 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 233d | justme003 | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | SellNo100¢ | $1,493 | −$8 −0.5% | — |
| 234d | Lisbon3 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,146 | +$69 +0.4% | 20 |
| 235d | kevtp | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,986 | −$14 −0.7% | — |
| 236d |  Arlette2 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,772 | +$53 +1.4% | 20 |
| 236d | Dit269785 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $13,783 | +$116 +0.8% | 20 |
| 236d | notJaneStreet8 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $33,564 | +$659 +2.0% | 20 |
| 236d | Limp-Jicama2 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,653 | +$92 +2.5% | 20 |
| 237d | gorovi | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $18,622 | +$150 +0.8% | 20 |
| 239d | ASDFGH43132 | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,092 | +$19 +1.7% | 20 |
| 240d |  Ahpo | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,900 | +$100 +2.6% | 20 |
| 240d | liamweber | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,120 | +$31 +2.8% | 20 |
| 240d | Matelleti2 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $8,681 | −$319 −3.7% | — |
| 240d |  slownick | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,488 | +$46 +3.1% | 20 |
| 243d |  blindmaninanorgy | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,145 | +$17 +1.5% | 20 |
| 246d | cripes32 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,794 | +$226 +3.9% | 20 |
| 246d | betforthewin | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,807 | +$145 +1.2% | 20 |
| 246d | dissk4 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,926 | +$201 +2.0% | 20 |
| 247d |  Goopster | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,243 | +$54 +1.7% | 20 |
| 247d |  dooby2 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,145 | +$60 +1.9% | 20 |
| 247d |  GobiDesertCanoePro | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,174 | +$44 +2.0% | 20 |
| 247d |  Donny.T2 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,777 | −$101 −3.6% | — |
| 248d | Flancho2 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,513 | −$105 −3.0% | — |
| 248d | Ahpo | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,432 | −$44 −3.1% | — |
| 248d |  JohnBankruptcy | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,096 | +$35 +3.2% | 20 |
| 249d |  ComingBack | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$44 +3.6% | 20 |
| 251d |  FaberMan | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,087 | +$43 +3.9% | 20 |
| 251d |  Crypto-Dawg | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,623 | +$77 +4.8% | 20 |
| 251d | agagyu | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,373 | −$272 −5.1% | — |
| 251d |  0xdc3E831cad | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,966 | −$97 −4.9% | — |
| 252d |  Bromley862 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,768 | −$119 −3.2% | — |
| 253d |  DerDon | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,825 | +$175 +3.6% | 20 |
| 254d | Gemini4563 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $23,256 | +$825 +3.5% | 20 |
| 254d | Matelleti | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,825 | +$175 +3.6% | 20 |
| 254d | flameron2 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,036 | +$117 +3.9% | 20 |
| 255d | Umaroth | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,218 | −$32 −2.7% | — |
| 258d | nedsta2 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,287 | +$196 +6.0% | 20 |
| 258d |  ImJustKen | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,905 | +$249 +6.4% | 20 |
| 258d | Oneabe2 fills | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,205 | −$211 −9.6% | — |
| 259d | tumbra | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,686 | +$298 +11% | 20 |
| 259d | Thin-Pendant | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$201 +10% | 20 |
| 260d |  GoriIIa | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $10,995 | +$1,074 +9.8% | 20 |
| 260d | Parz1vaI | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,716 | +$406 +15% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.