DontTrustMe

Polymarket wallet 0x04039b3e116a67715eb5a13c1486724ed66ca7ee · on Polymarket since Mar 2, 2025 · also shown as Pale-Victory

Open on Polymarket ↗

Positions now worth: $16.1K
All-time profit: +$10.9K
Volume traded: $130K
All-time rank: #13,783
Markets traded: 153
Recent hit rate: 92%46 of last 50 closed

Open positions

46 markets · $16.1K

Market	Holding		Paid → now
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 256d	No	3,128	51¢ → 74¢	$2,299	+$695 +43%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Ends in 75d	No	1,854	71¢ → 77¢	$1,418	+$93 +7.1%
Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 182d	No	1,384	86¢ → 95¢	$1,317	+$120 +10%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Ends in 14d	No	1,200	83¢ → 96¢	$1,152	+$152 +15%
Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	No	1,071	85¢ → 96¢	$1,033	+$119 +13%
Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 256d	No	900	74¢ → 94¢	$842	+$180 +27%
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 182d	No	816	83¢ → 94¢	$767	+$88 +13%
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?Ends in 75d	No	602	72¢ → 97¢	$585	+$154 +36%
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?Ends in 75d	No	518	85¢ → 97¢	$500	+$59 +13%
China x Japan military clash before 2027?Ends in 75d	No	500	84¢ → 96¢	$481	+$63 +15%
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?Ends ended	Yes	500	70¢ → 94¢	$469	+$120 +34%
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	No	500	75¢ → 93¢	$465	+$92 +25%
Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 182d	No	500	90¢ → 93¢	$464	+$14 +3.1%
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 182d	No	419	81¢ → 92¢	$386	+$46 +14%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?Ends in 134d	No	600	65¢ → 64¢	$384	−$4 −1.2%
Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 256d	Yes	419	54¢ → 86¢	$358	+$134 +60%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?Ends in 106d	No	500	70¢ → 71¢	$353	+$3 +0.7%
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?Ends in 75d	No	285	89¢ → 98¢	$280	+$27 +11%
Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 256d	No	300	65¢ → 81¢	$243	+$48 +25%
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?Ends in 75d	Yes	500	68¢ → 42¢	$207	−$131 −39%
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	No	200	84¢ → 97¢	$195	+$27 +16%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	No	200	85¢ → 97¢	$194	+$24 +14%
Macron out by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	No	200	85¢ → 97¢	$193	+$23 +14%
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 182d	No	193	59¢ → 85¢	$163	+$49 +43%
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?Ends in 75d	No	145	88¢ → 97¢	$141	+$14 +11%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 182d	No	128	68¢ → 94¢	$120	+$33 +38%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 182d	No	123	83¢ → 94¢	$116	+$13 +13%
Will Jordan Bardella be the next President of the National Rally in 2026?Ends in 75d	Yes	100	90¢ → 99¢	$99	+$9 +10%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?Ends in 75d	No	100	90¢ → 95¢	$95	+$5 +5.9%
Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	No	100	90¢ → 94¢	$94	+$4 +4.4%
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 256d	Yes	150	55¢ → 56¢	$84	+$1 +1.0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 182d	No	87	84¢ → 95¢	$83	+$10 +13%
Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 256d	No	112	72¢ → 69¢	$77	−$3 −4.3%
SpaceXAI announces a training pause by October 31?Ends in 14d	No	68	53¢ → 97¢	$66	+$30 +83%
Will Sudan make Eric Adams a citizen?Ends in 75d	No	67	84¢ → 93¢	$62	+$6 +10%
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 256d	Yes	200	30¢ → 31¢	$61	+$0 +0.0%
Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by March 31, 2027?Ends in 165d	No	60	78¢ → 94¢	$56	+$10 +21%
Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?Ends in 75d	Yes	131	57¢ → 38¢	$50	−$25 −34%
Will both Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 182d	No	40	56¢ → 93¢	$37	+$15 +65%
Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 256d	No	43	67¢ → 88¢	$37	+$9 +31%
Will Russia make Eric Adams a citizen?Ends in 75d	No	35	90¢ → 93¢	$33	+$1 +3.3%
Will Jean Castex be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 182d	No	25	88¢ → 95¢	$24	+$2 +7.6%
US x China Military clash before 2027?Ends in 75d	No	17	85¢ → 98¢	$17	+$2 +15%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Ends in 49d	Yes	6,000	10¢ → <1¢	$15	−$571 −97%
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Ends in 75d	Yes	10	85¢ → 99¢	$10	+$1 +17%
French election called by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	No	1	50¢ → 94¢	$1	+$0 +88%

Latest trades

last 60

When	Market	Bet	Size
19h	Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?	BuyNo90¢	$54
19h	Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?	BuyNo90¢	$18
19h	Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?	BuyNo90¢	$18
1d	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	BuyNo64¢	$39
1d	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	BuyNo64¢	$3
1d	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	BuyNo64¢	$13
1d	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	BuyNo64¢	$0
1d	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	BuyNo64¢	$8
1d	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	BuyNo70¢	$350
2d	Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	BuyNo75¢	$37
2d	Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	BuyNo75¢	$38
3d	Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	BuyNo90¢	$30
3d	Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	BuyNo90¢	$68
3d	Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?	SellYes75¢	$8
3d	Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?	BuyYes10¢	$1
4d	Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?	SellYes66¢	$3
4d	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	SellNo95¢	$19
4d	Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	BuyYes60¢	$47
4d	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	BuyNo90¢	$18
4d	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	SellNo>99¢	$499
4d	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	BuyNo>99¢	$166
4d	Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	BuyNo>99¢	$332
5d	Will Les Républicains hold 129-132 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	SellNo>99¢	$758
5d	Will SER have the most seats after the French Senate Election?	SellNo>99¢	$50
5d	Will Les Républicains have the most seats after the French Senate Election?	SellYes>99¢	$38
5d	Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?	SellNo2¢	$0
5d	Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?	BuyYes50¢	$5
6d	Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?	BuyNo3¢	$0
6d	Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?	BuyNo3¢	$6
6d	Will Olivier Faure finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	BuyYes60¢	$15
6d	Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?	BuyYes60¢	$19
6d	Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?	BuyYes60¢	$60
6d	Will Olivier Faure finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	BuyYes60¢	$14
6d	US x China Military clash before 2027?	SellNo98¢	$1
7d	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	BuyNo70¢	$61
7d	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	BuyNo70¢	$9
7d	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	BuyNo75¢	$75
8d	Will Olivier Faure finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	BuyYes73¢	$1
8d	Will Olivier Faure finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	BuyYes73¢	$108
8d	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	BuyNo80¢	$160
8d	Will Olivier Faure finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	BuyYes73¢	$37
8d	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	BuyNo85¢	$31
8d	Will Segolene Royal win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	BuyNo90¢	$18
8d	Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	BuyYes65¢	$6
8d	Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	BuyYes65¢	$12
8d	Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	BuyYes65¢	$12
8d	Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	BuyYes65¢	$34
8d	Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	BuyYes65¢	$2
8d	Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	SellNo97¢	$581
9d	Will SER hold 62-64 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	BuyYes90¢	$136
9d	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	BuyNo86¢	$349
9d	Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?	SellYes22¢	$22
9d	Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?	SellYes20¢	$9
10d	US x China Military clash before 2027?	SellNo98¢	$55
10d	Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	BuyYes69¢	$15
10d	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	BuyNo82¢	$41
10d	Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	BuyNo82¢	$6
10d	US x China Military clash before 2027?	SellNo98¢	$123
10d	Will Les Républicains hold 129-132 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	SellNo>99¢	$207
10d	Will the National Rally group hold fewer than 10 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	SellNo>99¢	$51

Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 50 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.

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