| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Ends ended | No | 3,470 | 60¢ → 76¢ | $2,620 | +$544 +26% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 1,166 | 81¢ → 66¢ | $764 | −$181 −19% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,413 | 49¢ → 26¢ | $360 | −$326 −47% |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 525 | 86¢ → 66¢ | $346 | −$103 −23% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 273 | 85¢ → 81¢ | $221 | −$12 −5.0% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 997 | 15¢ → 16¢ | $154 | +$7 +4.6% |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 507 | 10¢ → 28¢ | $142 | +$93 +191% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 6,241 | 4¢ → 2¢ | $137 | −$107 −44% |
| Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?Ends in 74d | Yes | 457 | 19¢ → 29¢ | $133 | +$46 +53% |
| Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 737 | 10¢ → 16¢ | $116 | +$46 +65% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 603 | 28¢ → 14¢ | $87 | −$79 −48% |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 251 | 57¢ → 24¢ | $60 | −$83 −58% |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 59 | 70¢ → 88¢ | $52 | +$11 +26% |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 47 | 88¢ → 98¢ | $46 | +$5 +12% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 552 | 10¢ → 8¢ | $41 | −$13 −24% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?Ends ended | Yes | 143 | 32¢ → 25¢ | $35 | −$10 −23% |
| Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by January 31, 2027?Ends in 105d | Yes | 40 | 69¢ → 42¢ | $17 | −$11 −39% |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 20 | 37¢ → 80¢ | $16 | +$9 +115% |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution?Ends in 440d | OpenAI | 25 | 40¢ → 60¢ | $15 | +$5 +51% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 1,535 | 4¢ → <1¢ | $3 | −$58 −95% |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.50T?Ends in 440d | Yes | 69 | 1¢ → 4¢ | $3 | +$2 +250% |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 3 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Hanwha Life Esports | 500 | 33¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$165 −100% |
| Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 8,082 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs MVK Esports - Game 3 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | CTBC Flying Oyster | 627 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$33 −100% |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 107 | 29¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$31 −100% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 8, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 84 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 339 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$31 −100% |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between September 7 and September 13, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 47 | 23¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,884 | 68¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,291 −100% |
| North Korea missile test/launch by March 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 29 | 27¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$8 −100% |
| LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 94 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial GroupSettled - ready to redeem | Gen.G Global Academy | 15,808 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$225 −100% |
| LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | KT Rolster Challengers | 746 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$70 −100% |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 4,005 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$394 −100% |
| Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 325 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$12 −100% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 9, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 195 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2Settled - ready to redeem | Kiwoom DRX Challengers | 1,386 | 23¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$323 −100% |
| LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular SeasonSettled - ready to redeem | Shopify Rebellion | 3,541 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$205 −100% |
| LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Dplus KIA | 850 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$88 −100% |
| LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | EDward Gaming | 224 | 44¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$98 −100% |
| LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Hanwha Life Esports | 1,000 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$56 −100% |
| LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 3 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Deep Cross Gaming | 1,160 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$12 −100% |
| Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 105 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON - Game 2 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | G2 Esports | 1,000 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| Claude 4.7 released by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 3,615 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$458 −100% |
| LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Invictus Gaming | 500 | 21¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$105 −100% |
| LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | KT Rolster | 19 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 9,362 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$180 −100% |
| LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | KT Rolster | 1,717 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$226 −100% |
| LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend GroupSettled - ready to redeem | Gen.G | 1,341 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$172 −100% |
| LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Hanwha Life Esports | 300 | 36¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$108 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 5 | 49¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Games Total: O/U 2.5Settled - ready to redeem | Under | 15 | 74¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by August 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 500 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | KT Rolster Challengers | 200 | 62¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$124 −100% |
| LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Game 2 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming | 392 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$120 −100% |
| LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | DN SOOPers Challengers | 845 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$34 −100% |
| LoL: Fuego vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group ASettled - ready to redeem | DN SOOPers Challengers | 6,186 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$602 −100% |
| LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Dplus KIA | 1,965 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$151 −100% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 9,254 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$561 −100% |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 4 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Bilibili Gaming | 2,610 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$306 −100% |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group ASettled - ready to redeem | FURIA Esports | 4,462 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$330 −100% |
| LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Dplus KIA Challengers | 2,133 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$280 −100% |
| LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 4 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | BNK FearX Youth | 3,740 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$571 −100% |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 8,082 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | T1 | 844 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 10, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 567 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$25 −100% |
| Will a team from LCS (North America) win MSI 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 188 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge GroupSettled - ready to redeem | T1 Academy | 1,959 | 47¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$922 −100% |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Bilibili Gaming | 450 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$31 −100% |
| Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | 76¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$76 −100% |
| LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,206 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | KT Rolster | 4,912 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$864 −100% |
| LAPTOP FDV above $350M one day after launch?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 200 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$12 −100% |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 6, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 500 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| LoL: T1 Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge GroupSettled - ready to redeem | DN SOOPers Challengers | 4,922 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$361 −100% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 2,523 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$114 −100% |
| Will KT Rolster Challengers win LCK CL 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 8,082 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| LoL: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular SeasonSettled - ready to redeem | Eintracht Frankfurt | 97 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,582 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 15 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Deep Cross Gaming | 750 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Deep Cross Gaming | 45,788 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$51 −100% |
| LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Hanwha Life Esports | 800 | 23¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$186 −100% |
| Will BNK FEARX win First Stand 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 7,469 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$194 −100% |
| Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 500 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$150 −100% |
| LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers League PlayoffsSettled - ready to redeem | Nongshim Esports Academy | 1,020 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK PlayoffsSettled - ready to redeem | T1 | 1,000 | 35¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$350 −100% |
| LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 2 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Kiwoom DRX Challengers | 1,316 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$23 −100% |
| LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Cloud9 | 1,702 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$160 −100% |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 1 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | LYON | 1,500 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | T1 Academy | 52 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Disguised | 845 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$8 −100% |
| LoL: HANJIN BRION vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | DN SOOPers | 2,515 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$78 −100% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5,424 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$47 −100% |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5,073 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 500 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$40 −100% |
| LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Game 1 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | DetonatioN FocusMe | 39 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Kiwoom DRX Challengers | 544 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
