Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 12 | 0% | — | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 13 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 7 | 0% | −1 pts | −25 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 31 | 0% | −4 pts | −33 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 9 | 0% | −5 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 30 | 100% | +18 pts | +57 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 15 | 100% | +60 pts | +79 pts | >99¢ · >99¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 14 | 100% | +72 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| May 28 | 0% | −4 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| May 27 | 0% | −10 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 29 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 26 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| May 24 | 0% | −42 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| May 23 | 0% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| May 25 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| June 3 | 0% | −2 pts | −33 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 31 | 100% | +12 pts | +32 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| May 30 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 5 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 16 | 100% | +49 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 19 | 100% | +32 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 18 | 100% | +36 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 17 | 100% | +39 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 121d | June 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $66,674 | +$67 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 121d | June 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,970 | +$30 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 121d | June 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,515 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 121d | gambler9252 fills | June 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,966 | +$34 +0.2% | 20 |
| 121d | June 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,892 | +$26 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 121d | June 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 121d | Reasonable-TabbyNew account | June 13 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,061 | −$39 −0.3% | — |
| 121d | Reasonable-TabbyNew account | June 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,585 | +$41 +0.2% | 20 |
| 121d | June 13 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $104,285 | −$715 −0.7% | — | |
| 121d | LearnSlowly111 | June 13 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,296 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 121d | tsekinming01 | June 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $61,280 | +$123 +0.2% | 20 |
| 121d | TheRealWarMonger | June 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,985 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 121d | onekey022 fills | June 13 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $16,381 | −$161 −1.0% | — |
| 122d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389352 fills | June 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,980 | +$20 +0.4% | 20 |
| 122d | Queasy-Vendor | June 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,526 | +$119 +0.4% | 20 |
| 122d | June 13 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $53,727 | +$373 +0.7% | 20 | |
| 122d | June 13 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,086 | +$9 +0.9% | 20 | |
| 122d | Shy-Ocean2 fills | June 13 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $99,111 | −$889 −0.9% | — |
| 122d | Caring-Employ-Espalier2 fills | June 13 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $49,577 | −$423 −0.9% | — |
| 122d | Teeming-Technician | June 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $42,567 | +$85 +0.2% | 20 |
| 122d | June 13 | SellNo>99¢ | $177,384 | −$615 −0.3% | — | |
| 122d | June 13 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,994 | −$6 −0.3% | — | |
| 122d | June 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,943 | +$12 +0.4% | 20 | |
| 122d | June 13 | SellNo100¢ | $11,572 | −$58 −0.5% | — | |
| 123d | Shy-Ocean | June 13 | BuyNo100¢ | $6,169 | +$31 +0.5% | 20 |
| 123d | June 13 | SellNo>99¢ | $68,472 | −$325 −0.5% | — | |
| 123d | miskulinac | June 13 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,992 | −$8 −0.4% | — |
| 123d | Elias.Thornwell | June 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,336 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 123d | June 13 | SellNo>99¢ | $15,237 | −$61 −0.4% | — | |
| 123d | June 13 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,594 | −$6 −0.4% | — | |
| 123d | 99cbets | June 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,345 | +$70 +0.4% | 20 |
| 123d | June 13 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,518 | −$30 −0.4% | — | |
| 123d | hahhaaa8 fills | June 13 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $100,541 | +$1,740 +1.7% | 20 |
| 123d | June 13 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | −$6 −0.6% | — | |
| 123d | vad1 | June 13 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,128 | −$13 −0.6% | — |
| 123d | bobe2.14 fills | June 13 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $51,036 | +$320 +0.6% | 20 |
| 123d | jklsjdwoqejasdf3 fills | June 13 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $20,147 | −$595 −3.0% | — |
| 123d | dex52 | June 13 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,125 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 123d | Strident-Export | June 13 | SellNo100¢ | $1,326 | −$7 −0.5% | — |
| 123d | 0xefce…4e4a | June 13 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,289 | −$22 −1.7% | — |
| 123d | June 13 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $8,705 | −$142 −1.6% | — | |
| 123d | vad1 | June 13 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,614 | +$26 +1.6% | 20 |
| 123d | copiewopie | June 12 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,111 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 123d | Malganis | June 13 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | −$20 −1.8% | — |
| 123d | Ordon2 fills | June 12 | SellNo>99¢ | $10,000 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 123d | timmythewhale7 fills | June 12 | SellNo>99¢ | $209,790 | −$210 −0.1% | — |
| 123d | wigglew | June 12 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,290 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 123d | Flamboyant-Warming | June 13 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,969 | −$52 −1.3% | — |
| 123d | oidoioi | June 13 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,258 | −$23 −1.0% | — |
| 123d | June 13 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,065 | −$71 −1.0% | — | |
| 124d | June 13 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,209 | −$46 −1.4% | — | |
| 124d | bibibila | June 13 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,113 | −$36 −1.7% | — |
| 124d | mk83 | June 13 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,706 | −$44 −1.6% | — |
| 124d | Anjiki | June 12 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,714 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 124d | June 12 | SellNo>99¢ | $22,977 | −$23 −0.1% | — | |
| 124d | June 13 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,843 | −$86 −1.8% | — | |
| 124d | lwnbrv | June 13 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,950 | −$41 −2.1% | — |
| 124d | DanVekCapital | June 13 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | −$31 −2.6% | — |
| 124d | June 13 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$114 +2.3% | 20 | |
| 124d | June 12 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,805 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for June 12 means the market gives it about 0%.