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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 289d | Liquidifier2 fills | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $124,615 | +$157 +0.1% | 10 |
| 289d |  Noooooooop2 fills | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,993 | +$7 +0.1% | 10 |
| 289d | lijialijia20209 fills | US recession in 2025? | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $103,822 | −$14,847 −14% | — |
| 289d | gimmedamoney | US recession in 2025? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,897 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 289d |  Ahpo3 fills | US recession in 2025? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,710 | −$12 −0.3% | — |
| 289d | hjtrd | US recession in 2025? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,453 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 290d | eschaworldchampion2026 | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $38,504 | +$77 +0.2% | 10 |
| 290d | Adamtulu | US recession in 2025? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,013 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 290d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly6 fills | US recession in 2025? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $26,098 | −$1,116 −4.3% | — |
| 291d | mazw8 | US recession in 2025? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,987 | −$12 −0.3% | — |
| 291d | Rox688 | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 10 |
| 291d | Ahpo7 fills | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,272 | +$60 +0.5% | 10 |
| 291d | SASASASS | US recession in 2025? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,036 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 291d | f2hf84hg52h5 | US recession in 2025? | SellNo100¢ | $2,952 | −$15 −0.5% | — |
| 292d |  Martiini | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $38,910 | +$78 +0.2% | 10 |
| 292d |  GollumGekko | US recession in 2025? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,584 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 292d | burningfruit33733 fills | US recession in 2025? | SellNo>99¢ | $6,099 | −$29 −0.5% | — |
| 292d |  Tenebrus73 fills | US recession in 2025? | SellNo82¢ → 100¢ | $7,713 | −$1,708 −22% | — |
| 293d | big6big82 fills | US recession in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,530 | −$43 −0.6% | — |
| 293d | iliabouchouev5 fills | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,458 | +$128 +1.2% | 10 |
| 293d | hesitant | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo100¢ | $1,119 | +$6 +0.5% | 10 |
| 294d | QMG-CORE9 fills | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $26,331 | +$617 +2.3% | 10 |
| 296d | QMG-SCALAR | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,647 | +$16 +0.6% | 10 |
| 297d |  TheWolfOfPoly | US recession in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,442 | −$31 −0.9% | — |
| 298d | udellwho | US recession in 2025? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,063 | −$103 −2.5% | — |
| 299d | asskik | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,981 | +$19 +0.4% | 10 |
| 301d | chama2 fills | US recession in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,752 | −$43 −1.2% | — |
| 301d | CompulsiveGambler | US recession in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,087 | −$13 −1.2% | — |
| 301d | Hashbrown | US recession in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,387 | −$13 −0.9% | — |
| 302d | mazw82 fills | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,191 | +$30 +0.9% | 10 |
| 302d |  sorcerer.09 | US recession in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,865 | −$31 −0.8% | — |
| 303d |  betwick | US recession in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $18,061 | −$229 −1.3% | — |
| 303d | big.bitch3 fills | US recession in 2025? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $36,092 | −$1,131 −3.1% | — |
| 303d | allen111 | US recession in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,887 | −$113 −1.1% | — |
| 304d |  stormshadow9 fills | US recession in 2025? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $24,493 | −$421 −1.7% | — |
| 305d |  studmuffin69693 fills | US recession in 2025? | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $7,813 | −$1,375 −18% | — |
| 306d | betwick | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $18,108 | +$183 +1.0% | 10 |
| 306d | RobXK2 fills | US recession in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,534 | −$22 −0.9% | — |
| 306d |  MasonsConqueredRome | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,120 | +$56 +0.9% | 10 |
| 307d |  CPU | US recession in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,052 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 308d | BossHugo | US recession in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,440 | −$16 −1.1% | — |
| 309d |  perfectnostalgia | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,487 | +$14 +0.9% | 10 |
| 310d | leodotfi | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$22 +1.1% | 10 |
| 310d |  perps-01sqko85 | US recession in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,054 | −$58 −1.4% | — |
| 310d | sorcerer.09 | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,925 | +$75 +1.5% | 10 |
| 310d |  macrosteaks4 fills | US recession in 2025? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $12,247 | −$221 −1.8% | — |
| 310d |  Freestome | US recession in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,382 | −$34 −1.4% | — |
| 312d | ZOVENJOYER | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,564 | +$36 +1.4% | 10 |
| 312d | f2hf84hg52h52 fills | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $51,625 | +$1,189 +2.3% | 10 |
| 312d | wuerjiu | US recession in 2025? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,372 | −$104 −1.9% | — |
| 314d | big6big84 fills | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $15,952 | +$282 +1.8% | 10 |
| 314d |  KimJonEn | US recession in 2025? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,940 | −$62 −2.1% | — |
| 317d | TheRealWarMonger | US recession in 2025? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,413 | −$40 −2.9% | — |
| 317d | TheWolfOfPoly3 fills | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,384 | +$196 +4.5% | 10 |
| 317d | QMG-CORE2 fills | US recession in 2025? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,926 | −$74 −1.9% | — |
| 320d | burningfruit3373 | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,180 | +$28 +2.3% | 10 |
| 320d |  FamasDad | US recession in 2025? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,983 | −$50 −2.5% | — |
| 321d | Matelleti | US recession in 2025? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,898 | −$101 −2.6% | — |
| 322d |  Easying-Fleeman | US recession in 2025? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,561 | −$39 −2.5% | — |
| 323d | wuerjiu | US recession in 2025? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,959 | +$83 +2.1% | 10 |
WongKimArk23,741 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met: 1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.