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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 0% | 0 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 21 | 0% | −21 pts | −65 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 14 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 18 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 169d |  SmallFishInWhaleStomach2 fills | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $264,769 | +$366 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d |  ZhangMuZhi..51 fills | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $351,904 | +$352 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d |  LlamaEnjoyer | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $96,268 | +$96 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | phantomsc | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,054 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d |  jesterthegoose2 fills | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $67,632 | +$68 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | 0xAA88grhfr | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,550 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | ArchelausButeo | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $379,016 | +$379 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d |  AgricultureSecretary3 fills | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $647,184 | +$722 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d |  Slowroasted3 fills | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $150,330 | +$150 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | rwo3 fills | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $108,791 | +$209 +0.2% | 20 |
| 169d | Exotic-Scholar5 fills | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $38,725 | +$39 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d |  duderr | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,659 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | C03B | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $50,627 | +$51 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d |  PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN | April 22 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,990 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 169d | Baracude | April 22 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,588 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 169d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly2 fills | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $99,900 | +$100 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | BecauseNo3 fills | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997,000 | +$3,000 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d |  cumprod | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d |  HorribleWork | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d |  Brokie5 fills | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $47,284 | +$55 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d |  bigshort | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | Spice-511 | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $389,610 | +$390 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d |  Cungly | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d |  DirkDiggler67 | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,498 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | botyor92 | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,498 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | paperhandedfool | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $109,690 | +$110 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | ndb15 fills | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $157,397 | +$603 +0.4% | 20 |
| 169d | Scaly-Tracksuit6 fills | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,806,618 | +$6,209 +0.2% | 20 |
| 169d | Thanksgivingturkeymaxxing2 fills | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $36,963 | +$37 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | Shipoo | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,093 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d |  Nexuus | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,947 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d |  f15-SHOTDOWN-againAgainAgain | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,948 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d |  Ignisss | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,797 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d |  Yukaii | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,397 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d |  Parz1vaI | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | Baracude | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,025 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | xytest | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $49,950 | +$50 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d |  OraculumNobius | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d |  basedd2 fills | April 22 | SellNo>99¢ | $53,238 | −$107 −0.2% | — |
| 169d |  debased3 fills | April 22 | SellNo>99¢ | $109,780 | −$220 −0.2% | — |
| 169d |  HolyMoses74 fills | April 22 | SellNo>99¢ | $66,533 | −$133 −0.2% | — |
| 169d | generalVR | April 22 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,982 | −$18 −0.2% | — |
| 169d |  SusanWarrenHR | April 22 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,996 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 169d | locuspm | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,950 | +$50 +0.2% | 20 |
| 169d | Test6694 fills | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,031 | +$37 +0.2% | 20 |
| 169d |  MysticFind | April 22 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,589 | −$11 −0.2% | — |
| 169d | ArchelausButeo | April 22 | SellNo>99¢ | $45,305 | −$91 −0.2% | — |
| 169d | helloiamworld2 fills | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $256,225 | +$513 +0.2% | 20 |
| 169d | KiernanMeister4 fills | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $27,986 | +$79 +0.3% | 20 |
| 169d | LlamaEnjoyer | April 22 | SellNo>99¢ | $95,979 | −$192 −0.2% | — |
| 169d | HMSMAD1232 fills | April 22 | SellNo>99¢ | $153,458 | −$308 −0.2% | — |
| 169d |  Kickstand7 | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $110,889 | +$222 +0.2% | 20 |
| 169d | deepmouse | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,460 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 169d | ardenypoput1 | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,098 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 169d |  degensruletheworld4 fills | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $69,750 | +$250 +0.4% | 20 |
| 169d | steeplejack | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $52,397 | +$158 +0.3% | 20 |
| 169d | LordofPM2 fills | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $200,490 | +$604 +0.3% | 20 |
| 169d | miscoaylame | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,096 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 169d | 0xf243 | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,475 | +$26 +0.3% | 20 |
| 169d |  NFTS | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $234,216 | +$705 +0.3% | 20 |
Pedro141471,332,669 shares
team-tylers-van1,520 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran announced on April 7, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both extensions of the April 7 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed two-week period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for April 22 means the market gives it about 0%.