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Polymarket wallet 0x40413bb8a4ea027c54bba89c0a13b8e68533ca54 · on Polymarket since Aug 28, 2025 · also shown as Frilly-River
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?Ends in 440d | No | 1,578 | 46¢ → 28¢ | $434 | −$299 −41% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 500 | 80¢ → 75¢ | $373 | −$28 −6.9% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 200 | 67¢ → 85¢ | $169 | +$36 +27% |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?Ends in 440d | No | 820 | 22¢ → 14¢ | $111 | −$73 −40% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 80 | 63¢ → 76¢ | $61 | +$10 +21% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?Ends in 440d | No | 30 | 78¢ → 30¢ | $9 | −$14 −62% |
| Switzerland vs. Colombia: Both Teams to ScoreSettled - ready to redeem | Yes | 31 | 49¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$15 −100% |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 150 | 53¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$79 −100% |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 72¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$72 −100% |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 50 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.