EconomistOx

Polymarket wallet 0xf2a3aee3e288d216c69c9c3d956ac75e1bb88a8d · on Polymarket since Mar 12, 2026 · also shown as Lopsided-Vendor

Open on Polymarket ↗

Positions now worth: $2.7K
All-time profit: +$572
Volume traded: $16.4K
All-time rank: #107,659
Markets traded: 133
Recent hit rate: 76%38 of last 50 closed

Open positions

26 markets · $2.7K

Market	Holding		Paid → now
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Ends in 14d	No	365	89¢ → 99¢	$362	+$37 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Ends in 44d	No	268	89¢ → 96¢	$256	+$16 +6.7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 75d	No	240	58¢ → 89¢	$212	+$72 +52%
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?Ends in 74d	No	209	86¢ → 89¢	$185	+$5 +2.5%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Ends in 75d	No	180	86¢ → 95¢	$170	+$15 +9.8%
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?Ends ended	Yes	181	80¢ → 92¢	$167	+$22 +15%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended	Yes	184	71¢ → 77¢	$141	+$11 +8.8%
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	No	122	87¢ → 93¢	$113	+$7 +6.6%
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?Ends in 75d	No	113	95¢ → 96¢	$108	+$0 +0.2%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d	No	101	99¢ → 99¢	$101	+$1 +0.7%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Ends in 75d	No	107	79¢ → 94¢	$100	+$15 +18%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Ends in 75d	No	110	72¢ → 89¢	$98	+$19 +24%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d	No	85	94¢ → 99¢	$84	+$4 +4.7%
Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government?Ends ended	Yes	111	90¢ → 74¢	$82	−$18 −18%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Ends in 75d	No	70	86¢ → 97¢	$68	+$8 +13%
Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?Ends ended	No	73	89¢ → 93¢	$68	+$3 +4.0%
Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?Ends ended	Yes	91	88¢ → 73¢	$67	−$13 −17%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d	No	62	87¢ → 95¢	$59	+$5 +9.4%
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?Ends in 75d	No	56	94¢ → 98¢	$54	+$2 +4.4%
Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government?Ends ended	Yes	72	98¢ → 72¢	$51	−$19 −27%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026Ends in 44d	No	52	96¢ → 97¢	$51	+$1 +1.1%
Will Linke be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?Ends ended	Yes	63	95¢ → 56¢	$35	−$25 −41%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Ends in 75d	No	35	85¢ → 85¢	$30	−$0 −0.6%
Trump out as President before 2027?Ends in 75d	No	22	91¢ → 96¢	$21	+$1 +5.5%
Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?Ends in 134d	No	20	98¢ → 93¢	$19	−$1 −5.1%
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?Ends in 75d	Yes	20	45¢ → 17¢	$3	−$6 −63%

Latest trades

last 60

When	Market	Bet	Size
5h	Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	BuyNo93¢	$40
5h	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	BuyYes90¢	$25
12h	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	BuyNo89¢	$50
2d	Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?	SellNo67¢	$120
4d	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	BuyNo86¢	$10
7d	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	BuyYes77¢	$40
7d	Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	BuyNo84¢	$25
8d	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	BuyNo99¢	$100
8d	France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?	BuyNo99¢	$30
8d	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	BuyNo83¢	$30
8d	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BuyYes88¢	$25
8d	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	BuyYes78¢	$15
8d	Will Partha Dasgupta win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	BuyNo95¢	$10
9d	Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government?	BuyYes98¢	$30
9d	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	BuyNo91¢	$40
10d	Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government?	BuyYes98¢	$40
10d	Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government?	BuyYes90¢	$100
12d	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	BuyYes82¢	$20
12d	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BuyYes83¢	$35
15d	Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	BuyNo88¢	$80
15d	Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?	BuyNo77¢	$40
15d	Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?	BuyNo77¢	$101
16d	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	BuyNo91¢	$100
16d	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026	BuyNo96¢	$50
16d	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BuyYes64¢	$41
21d	France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?	BuyNo87¢	$54
21d	Will Linke be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?	BuyYes95¢	$60
21d	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	BuyNo96¢	$200
22d	Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?	BuyYes88¢	$80
22d	France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?	BuyNo92¢	$50
25d	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	BuyNo86¢	$50
25d	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BuyYes60¢	$30
25d	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BuyNo85¢	$30
25d	Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	BuyNo90¢	$55
25d	Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	BuyNo85¢	$101
25d	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	BuyYes77¢	$45
25d	France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by September 30, 2026?	BuyNo98¢	$100
27d	Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?	BuyYes91¢	$65
27d	Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026?	SellYes10¢	$9
27d	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	SellYes6¢	$7
27d	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	SellNo80¢	$51
28d	Will Grüne win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	BuyYes82¢	$32
28d	Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026?	BuyYes46¢	$20
28d	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	BuyYes53¢	$10
28d	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	BuyNo83¢	$30
28d	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	SellNo72¢	$45
28d	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	BuyNo95¢	$50
28d	Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes?	BuyYes89¢	$20
28d	Will AfD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	BuyYes60¢	$30
28d	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	BuyNo89¢	$50
28d	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	BuyNo94¢	$120
28d	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	SellNo99¢	$318
29d	Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026?	BuyYes46¢	$20
29d	Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?	SellYes45¢	$20
30d	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	BuyNo94¢	$15
35d	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	SellYes66¢	$15
36d	Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	BuyYes90¢	$47
36d	Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?	SellYes65¢	$48
36d	Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	BuyYes86¢	$60
36d	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	BuyYes21¢	$25

Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 50 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.

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