Polymarket · Tech & Science
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-15 | 83% | −2 pts | +14 pts | 83¢ · 84¢ (2¢) | $308 | in 76d |
| 16-19 | 7% | 0 pts | +2 pts | 6¢ · 8¢ (1¢) | $2.13K | in 76d |
| <12 | 4% | — | −21 pts | 1¢ · 8¢ (7¢) | $55 | in 76d |
| 20-23 | 1% | 0 pts | +1 pts | <1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $55 | in 76d |
| 24-27 | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $55 | in 76d |
| 28-31 | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $55 | in 76d |
| 32+ | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $55 | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d | Rundown-Regard | 12-15 | BuyYes50¢ → 83¢ | $1,400 | +$951 +68% | 24 |
| 15d | arbandy | <12 | BuyYes53¢ → 4¢ | $1,093 | −$1,003 −92% | 24 |
| 34d | arbandy | 16-19 | SellNo91¢ → 93¢ | $1,755 | −$49 −2.8% | — |
| 64d | KiernanMeister | 24-27 | BuyNo90¢ → >99¢ | $2,234 | +$255 +11% | 11 |
| 78d | 20-23 | BuyNo83¢ → 99¢ | $2,341 | +$453 +19% | 15 | |
| 78d | 24-27 | BuyNo83¢ → >99¢ | $1,277 | +$259 +20% | 15 |
This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. If Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 83¢ for 12-15 means the market gives it about 83%.