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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Steve Witkoff | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Abbas Araghchi | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Marco Rubio | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Donald Trump | 100% | +73 pts | — | 95¢ · >99¢ (5¢) | — | ended |
| Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Shehbaz Sharif | 100% | +61 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| JD Vance | 100% | +38 pts | — | 99¢ · >99¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Masoud Pezeshkian | 100% | +83 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Pete Hegseth | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| King Abdullah II | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Recep Tayyip Erdogan | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Abdel Fattah el-Sisi | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ali Larijani | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77d |  elmcap2 | Marco Rubio | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,192 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 77d |  Warren-Buffett3 fills | Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,066 | +$192 +2.7% | 20 |
| 77d | Warren-Buffett2 fills | Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,361 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 78d | LJa7io23MCv954j | Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,486 | −$14 −0.9% | — |
| 78d | QMG-CORE | Benjamin Netanyahu | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,570 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 79d | elmcap2 | Recep Tayyip Erdogan | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,070 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 80d | Warren-Buffett3 fills | Steve Witkoff | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,802 | +$134 +2.3% | 20 |
| 80d | Warren-Buffett | Abdel Fattah el-Sisi | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,791 | +$35 +1.3% | 20 |
| 80d | 0x8931…a90c | Pete Hegseth | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,907 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 80d | 0x8931…a90c | Recep Tayyip Erdogan | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 80d |  tetrase2 fills | Benjamin Netanyahu | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,990 | +$112 +3.8% | 20 |
| 81d | Warren-Buffett2 fills | Marco Rubio | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,231 | +$32 +0.8% | 20 |
| 86d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,046 | +$13 +1.2% | 20 |
| 86d | Somber-Ice3 fills | Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $4,777 | −$311 −6.5% | — |
| 87d | elmcap22 fills | Pete Hegseth | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,370 | +$68 +1.6% | 20 |
| 88d |  paddaa | Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,955 | −$57 −2.9% | — |
| 90d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Marco Rubio | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,025 | −$27 −0.9% | — |
| 92d | TronOG2 fills | Benjamin Netanyahu | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,571 | +$149 +5.8% | 20 |
| 94d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly4 fills | Marco Rubio | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $17,292 | +$1,026 +5.9% | 20 |
| 95d | Warren-Buffett | Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,111 | +$32 +2.8% | 20 |
| 101d |  tourists2 fills | Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $6,837 | +$281 +4.1% | 20 |
| 101d | Warren-Buffett | Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,967 | +$191 +9.7% | 20 |
| 103d | LJa7io23MCv954j | Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $2,176 | +$399 +18% | 20 |
| 105d | anon.1980.123 | Pete Hegseth | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,236 | −$16 −1.3% | — |
| 105d | anon.1980.123 | Steve Witkoff | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,207 | −$29 −2.4% | — |
| 108d |  tetrose | Mohammed bin Salman | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,317 | −$42 −1.0% | — |
| 108d | tetrose3 fills | Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $8,779 | +$1,208 +14% | 20 |
| 108d | GCNO1 | Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,467 | −$25 −1.0% | — |
| 109d | tetrose3 fills | Abbas Araghchi | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $15,274 | +$2,234 +15% | 20 |
| 109d | tetrose | Benjamin Netanyahu | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $14,144 | +$212 +1.5% | 20 |
| 109d | tetrose | Mojtaba Khamenei | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,438 | +$141 +1.9% | 20 |
| 109d | tetrose2 fills | Steve Witkoff | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $11,681 | +$445 +3.8% | 20 |
| 109d | tetrose | Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | BuyYes10¢ → 0¢ | $1,207 | −$1,207 −100% | 21 |
| 109d | tetrose | Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $14,046 | +$744 +5.3% | 20 |
| 109d | tetrose | Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $22,836 | +$1,218 +5.3% | 20 |
| 109d | tetrose | Mohammed bin Salman | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $25,347 | +$1,522 +6.0% | 20 |
| 113d | Laurenman2 fills | Mojtaba Khamenei | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,847 | −$106 −2.7% | — |
| 113d |  Car | Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,445 | +$126 +8.7% | 20 |
| 114d | Newshound | Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,972 | +$172 +8.7% | 20 |
| 115d | cripes3 | Steve Witkoff | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,258 | −$42 −3.3% | — |
| 115d | Warren-Buffett | Mohammed bin Salman | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,223 | +$220 +9.9% | 20 |
| 116d | Bodytobody | Marco Rubio | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,160 | −$46 −4.0% | — |
| 117d | tetrose | Marco Rubio | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $9,901 | +$413 +4.2% | 20 |
| 117d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Benjamin Netanyahu | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,780 | −$153 −3.2% | — |
| 117d |  Valen9 | Abbas Araghchi | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,624 | +$221 +14% | 20 |
| 117d | Somber-Ice | Abbas Araghchi | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,860 | −$254 −14% | — |
| 118d | Somber-Ice2 fills | Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $4,370 | +$1,528 +35% | 20 |
| 118d | Valen9 | Abbas Araghchi | SellNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,073 | −$236 −22% | — |
| 118d | tetrose | Steve Witkoff | SellYes15¢ → 0¢ | $1,282 | +$1,282 +100% | — |
| 118d | Somber-Ice | Abbas Araghchi | BuyNo71¢ → 100¢ | $1,581 | +$657 +42% | 20 |
| 118d | paddaa | Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | BuyNo66¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$1,047 +52% | 20 |
| 119d | hfncj | Steve Witkoff | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $3,645 | −$433 −12% | — |
| 119d |  vinii | Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,074 | −$103 −9.6% | — |
| 119d | tetrose | Steve Witkoff | BuyYes5¢ → 0¢ | $1,568 | −$1,568 −100% | 23 |
| 119d | tetrose | Abbas Araghchi | BuyYes10¢ → 0¢ | $1,445 | −$1,445 −100% | 23 |
| 119d | Laurenman | Mojtaba Khamenei | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,836 | +$38 +2.0% | 20 |
| 120d | tetrase | Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,116 | +$84 +7.5% | 20 |
| 120d | tetrase | Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,389 | +$175 +13% | 20 |
| 120d |  Marco-Rubio2 fills | Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $2,777 | +$889 +32% | 20 |
| 121d |  SlashClam | Marco Rubio | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,247 | −$123 −9.9% | — |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf means the market gives it about 0%.
