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Polymarket wallet 0x1531649cfb232d08d293afa97ebe18dafa2ddc0f · on Polymarket since Nov 27, 2025 · also shown as Reckless-Conductor
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 13 | 45¢ → 100¢ | $13 | +$7 +122% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 100 | 12¢ → 2¢ | $2 | −$10 −83% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 10 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 150 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$15 −100% |
| Thunder vs. SunsSettled - ready to redeem | Thunder | 16 | 66¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| Paradex FDV above $500M one day after launch?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 25 | 25¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Bucks vs. KingsSettled - ready to redeem | Kings | 20 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 15 | 70¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 700 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 9 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.