| Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,009 | 55¢ → 65¢ | $651 | +$95 +17% |
| Will Together win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 10d | No | 568 | 79¢ → 88¢ | $497 | +$46 +10% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Ends in 17d | Yes | 456 | 87¢ → 90¢ | $410 | +$14 +3.5% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 492 | 82¢ → 80¢ | $394 | −$10 −2.6% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 1,009 | 44¢ → 36¢ | $358 | −$85 −19% |
| Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 10d | Yes | 434 | 41¢ → 69¢ | $299 | +$122 +68% |
| Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 113m by October 31?Ends in 13d | No | 291 | 92¢ → 98¢ | $287 | +$17 +6.4% |
| Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 196 | 78¢ → 94¢ | $184 | +$30 +20% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 270 | 55¢ → 56¢ | $150 | +$1 +0.5% |
| Will SNSD win the third most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?Ends ended | No | 151 | 70¢ → 95¢ | $144 | +$38 +36% |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 10d | Yes | 434 | 49¢ → 33¢ | $141 | −$73 −34% |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 202 | 11¢ → 68¢ | $137 | +$115 +518% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?Ends in 74d | No | 130 | 97¢ → 99¢ | $128 | +$2 +1.8% |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?Ends in 440d | No | 271 | 41¢ → 45¢ | $122 | +$11 +9.5% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 135 | 61¢ → 85¢ | $114 | +$32 +38% |
| Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 122m by October 31?Ends in 13d | No | 100 | 97¢ → 98¢ | $98 | +$1 +0.6% |
| Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 10d | No | 569 | 18¢ → 16¢ | $88 | −$14 −14% |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 202 | 87¢ → 37¢ | $75 | −$101 −57% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Ends ended | No | 85 | 69¢ → 76¢ | $64 | +$6 +9.4% |
| Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 328 | 17¢ → 19¢ | $63 | +$7 +13% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Ends in 106d | No | 73 | 78¢ → 82¢ | $59 | +$3 +4.5% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 175 | 9¢ → 30¢ | $52 | +$35 +219% |
| No one announced as next James Bond?Ends in 75d | No | 70 | 71¢ → 66¢ | $46 | −$3 −6.3% |
| Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 10d | No | 61 | 45¢ → 73¢ | $45 | +$17 +62% |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 48 | 87¢ → 91¢ | $44 | +$2 +4.0% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?Ends in 14d | Yes | 459 | 12¢ → 9¢ | $39 | −$15 −27% |
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 40 | 70¢ → 94¢ | $38 | +$10 +35% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027?Ends in 348d | Yes | 60 | 58¢ → 60¢ | $36 | +$1 +2.6% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 30 | 86¢ → 95¢ | $29 | +$3 +11% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?Ends in 6d | No | 28 | 89¢ → 97¢ | $27 | +$2 +8.8% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027?Ends in 318d | No | 60 | 42¢ → 45¢ | $27 | +$2 +6.0% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 40 | 44¢ → 65¢ | $26 | +$8 +47% |
| Next James Bond announced by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 70 | 26¢ → 35¢ | $25 | +$7 +36% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 132 | 35¢ → 18¢ | $23 | −$23 −50% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?Ends in 5h | Yes | 20 | 50¢ → 99¢ | $20 | +$10 +99% |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 10d | No | 61 | 51¢ → 32¢ | $20 | −$12 −37% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?Ends in 134d | Yes | 73 | 22¢ → 27¢ | $19 | +$3 +20% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Ends in 75d | Yes | 85 | 25¢ → 23¢ | $19 | −$2 −11% |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 20 | 83¢ → 96¢ | $19 | +$3 +15% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Ends in 5d | Yes | 20 | 50¢ → 92¢ | $18 | +$8 +83% |
| Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?Ends in 6d | No | 23 | 56¢ → 79¢ | $18 | +$5 +40% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Ends in 7d | Yes | 20 | 50¢ → 88¢ | $18 | +$8 +75% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Ends in 11d | Yes | 20 | 50¢ → 83¢ | $17 | +$7 +66% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 40 | 51¢ → 40¢ | $16 | −$4 −22% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | No | 80 | 20¢ → 20¢ | $16 | −$0 −2.5% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 16 | 59¢ → 91¢ | $15 | +$5 +54% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?Ends in 44d | No | 19 | 66¢ → 74¢ | $14 | +$2 +12% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Ends in 22d | Yes | 20 | 50¢ → 68¢ | $14 | +$4 +36% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 35 | 33¢ → 32¢ | $11 | −$1 −4.5% |
| Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 195 | 19¢ → 6¢ | $11 | −$26 −71% |
| Will SDA win the most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?Ends ended | Yes | 10 | 80¢ → 97¢ | $10 | +$2 +21% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Ends in 29d | No | 20 | 41¢ → 46¢ | $9 | +$1 +11% |
| Will SNSD win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?Ends ended | No | 171 | 26¢ → 5¢ | $8 | −$36 −81% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 75 | 10¢ → 9¢ | $6 | −$1 −15% |
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 40 | 30¢ → 16¢ | $6 | −$6 −48% |
| Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 110m by October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 292 | 5¢ → 2¢ | $6 | −$9 −60% |
| Will NDP win the second most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?Ends in 6d | No | 23 | 45¢ → 23¢ | $5 | −$5 −50% |
| Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 28, 2026?Ends ended | Yes | 5 | 90¢ → 95¢ | $5 | +$0 +5.2% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 31 | 10¢ → 10¢ | $3 | −$0 −6.8% |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 20 | 17¢ → 14¢ | $3 | −$1 −18% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?Ends in 74d | Yes | 130 | 2¢ → 2¢ | $2 | −$0 −8.3% |
| Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 119m by October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 2¢ | $2 | +$1 +70% |
| Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 21, 2026?Ends ended | No | 20 | 9¢ → 5¢ | $1 | −$1 −48% |
| Will SDA win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?Ends ended | Yes | 10 | 9¢ → 2¢ | $0 | −$1 −82% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on October 23?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 101 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 158 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 303 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$138 −100% |
| Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 70m?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 10 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will Roseana Sarney win the second-most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 482 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$77 −100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 8?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 12 | 83¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 33 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on October 24?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 83 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 12 | 27¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on October 23?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 969 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$14 −100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 8?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 13 | 72¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Will Joao Azevêdo win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 354 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Will Guilherme Derrite win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 437 | 17¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$74 −100% |
| Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,185 | 29¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$345 −100% |
| Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 343 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$42 −100% |
| Will MLSTP win the most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 254 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Will Mauro Mendes win the most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 11 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 22?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 29 | 17¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will Benedita da Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 313 | 21¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$67 −100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 2?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 14 | 80¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on October 22?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 51 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Will Red Bull Racing finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 109 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$14 −100% |
| Will the price of Solana be above $210 on October 23?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 230 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Capitão Contar win the most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 224 | 28¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$62 −100% |
| Will Reinaldo Azambuja win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 230 | 23¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$52 −100% |
| Will Carlos Jordy win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 29 | 58¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$17 −100% |
| Will there be no Gemini Argon release by October 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 83 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$8 −100% |
| Will Rayssa Furlan win the most votes in the 2026 Amapá Senate election?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 17 | 40¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 16 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 22?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 23 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 983 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$68 −100% |
| Will Benedita da Silva win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 385 | 55¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$210 −100% |
| Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 149 | 47¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$71 −100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 23?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 59 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% in September?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 25 | 92¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$23 −100% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 134 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$8 −100% |
