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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 5% | −1 pts | −9 pts | 3¢ · 6¢ (3¢) | — | in 15d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | October 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 96¢ | $2,000 | +$31 +1.6% | 20 | |
| 14d | tr1000 | October 31 | BuyNo90¢ → 96¢ | $2,300 | +$141 +6.1% | 20 |
| 18d | Huludubu2 fills | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by September 30? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,643 | +$204 +5.6% | 20 |
| 18d | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by September 30? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,370 | +$107 +7.8% | 21 | |
| 25d | spamburglar2 fills | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by September 30? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $3,448 | +$365 +11% | 20 |
| 46d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e22 fills | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,416 | +$22 +0.2% | 20 |
| 47d | FishermansFiend | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,221 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 52d | AnonSequitur | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,104 | −$242 −12% | — |
| 53d | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,069 | −$56 −5.3% | — | |
| 53d | 0x1fd0…c6a7 | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,072 | +$23 +2.1% | 20 |
| 54d | Huludubu | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,328 | +$44 +3.3% | 20 |
| 57d | 20260601 | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | −$42 −4.2% | — |
| 58d | adenakoz1 | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,034 | −$66 −6.4% | — |
| 59d | ppyiago | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,093 | +$58 +5.3% | 20 |
| 59d | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,410 | +$90 +6.4% | 20 | |
| 61d | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,212 | −$219 −18% | — | |
| 65d | groth | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | BuyYes21¢ → 0¢ | $1,723 | −$1,723 −100% | 23 |
| 67d | outge3 | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | BuyYes28¢ → 0¢ | $1,282 | −$1,282 −100% | 21 |
| 67d | 8dcc906a9b | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | BuyYes27¢ → 0¢ | $2,741 | −$2,741 −100% | 24 |
| 68d | Skinny-Class | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $1,356 | +$644 +48% | 20 |
| 70d | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | BuyNo39¢ → 100¢ | $1,250 | +$1,955 +156% | 20 | |
| 73d | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | BuyYes71¢ → 0¢ | $1,022 | −$1,022 −100% | 20 | |
| 75d | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | BuyNo53¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$1,324 +88% | 20 | |
| 77d | yougotme | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,556 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 78d | 0xbF4d2023822 fills | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $3,440 | −$496 −14% | — |
| 80d | opoak | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,557 | −$359 −10% | — |
| 81d | opoak | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,659 | +$257 +7.0% | 20 |
| 83d | 0xbF4d2023822 fills | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $5,347 | +$945 +18% | 20 |
| 96d | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,190 | +$399 +34% | 20 | |
| 96d | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? | BuyYes25¢ → 0¢ | $1,020 | −$1,020 −100% | 20 |
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify. Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify. Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 5¢ for October 31 means the market gives it about 5%.