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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 2% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $805 | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d | bearbees2 | December 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 99¢ | $5,402 | +$55 +1.0% | 6 |
| 48d |  elmcap22 fills | Will US withdraw from NATO by August 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,328 | +$11 +0.2% | 4 |
| 68d |  Tenebrus7 | December 31 | SellNo97¢ → 99¢ | $3,092 | −$63 −2.0% | — |
| 91d | Mwhale2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 99¢ | $6,055 | +$225 +3.7% | 7 |
| 108d | mr-green-tea10 fills | December 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 99¢ | $21,664 | +$1,896 +8.8% | 10 |
| 111d | OLOTH2 fills | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,941 | +$15 +0.1% | 4 |
| 113d | Colbertghn | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,102 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 113d | Willdfb | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,102 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 125d | harmonyaegis4 | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,220 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 125d | harmonyaegis4 | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,096 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 129d | Mdubovski2 fills | December 31 | SellNo94¢ → 99¢ | $7,082 | −$324 −4.6% | — |
| 129d | bearbees2 | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $7,041 | −$14 −0.2% | — |
| 130d | Dunlopdfb | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,120 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 130d |  DEGENKHAN | December 31 | SellNo96¢ → 99¢ | $4,099 | −$124 −3.0% | — |
| 131d |  Outsmarter | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,048 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 131d |  FortunatelyFestive | December 31 | SellNo96¢ → 99¢ | $1,060 | −$25 −2.4% | — |
| 132d | Outsmarter | December 31 | SellNo96¢ → 99¢ | $2,207 | −$46 −2.1% | — |
| 132d | elmcap2 | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $43,012 | −$86 −0.2% | — |
| 132d | keribit | December 31 | SellNo97¢ → 99¢ | $4,870 | −$55 −1.1% | — |
| 132d | keribit2 fills | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $20,648 | −$76 −0.4% | — |
| 133d | TronOG | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,674 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 133d | delphy2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 99¢ | $4,572 | +$291 +6.4% | 9 |
| 144d | Risto | December 31 | SellNo93¢ → 99¢ | $1,241 | −$72 −5.8% | — |
| 145d | Smallpeepee | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,398 | +$14 +0.6% | 4 |
| 146d | delphy | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,003 | +$37 +1.2% | 4 |
| 150d | aviato | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,966 | −$34 −1.7% | — |
| 150d | elmcap23 fills | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $30,081 | +$1,063 +3.5% | 4 |
| 151d | Zeed | December 31 | SellYes8¢ → 2¢ | $1,209 | +$981 +81% | — |
| 154d | TheEvilMoneyDestroyer | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,306 | −$45 −1.9% | — |
| 156d | TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,964 | +$36 +1.8% | 4 |
| 159d | TronOG | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,627 | +$50 +3.1% | 4 |
| 160d | Knobby-Boat | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | BuyYes3¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 4 |
| 166d | 0x8c5d056d09fbdeae6ba72cfc9104165526901f77 | December 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 99¢ | $2,000 | +$168 +8.4% | 10 |
| 169d | kevinlim883 | December 31 | BuyNo89¢ → 99¢ | $10,000 | +$1,010 +10% | 11 |
| 169d |  bosshog | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,495 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 169d | bearbees2 | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,282 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 169d |  GrokEnjoyer | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,289 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 170d |  wish- | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $5,337 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 171d | Abdoulay | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 171d |  sebelmaestro6 fills | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $7,247 | −$15 −0.2% | — |
| 171d | sebelmaestro6 fills | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,254 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 171d | JosephTrump | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,994 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 171d |  STDgambler | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,914 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 171d | keribit | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,996 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 172d | MrMarket3 fills | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,374 | −$53 −0.6% | — |
| 172d | QMG-CORE | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,996 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 172d |  Dios777 | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,406 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 172d | MoeZart | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,996 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 173d | keribit3 fills | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $4,902 | +$323 +6.6% | 4 |
| 173d |  DerDon | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,384 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 174d | mihaii1 | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $6,284 | −$13 −0.2% | — |
| 175d | 0x32d6758638b5c7634b43i5kl0342jwb8n2j676 | December 31 | SellYes12¢ → 2¢ | $2,406 | +$2,106 +88% | — |
| 176d |  garlictrump | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,604 | −$10 −0.6% | — |
| 176d | onekey09 | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | BuyNo100¢ | $5,817 | +$29 +0.5% | 4 |
| 176d | Tenebrus7 | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,437 | −$9 −0.6% | — |
| 176d | wlooo2 fills | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | BuyNo100¢ | $20,895 | +$105 +0.5% | 4 |
| 176d | gorovi | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,970 | −$30 −0.6% | — |
| 177d | delphy3 fills | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $19,522 | +$219 +1.1% | 4 |
| 178d | TheEvilMoneyDestroyer | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$88 +4.4% | 4 |
| 178d | TheEvilMoneyDestroyer | December 31 | SellNo87¢ → 99¢ | $1,975 | −$264 −13% | — |
DegenOnChainTest8,284 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 2¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 2%.