| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 1,395 | 74¢ → 84¢ | $1,165 | +$127 +12% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 1,200 | 84¢ → 96¢ | $1,151 | +$143 +14% |
| Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,075 | 93¢ → 98¢ | $1,053 | +$53 +5.3% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Ends in 17d | Yes | 1,080 | 89¢ → 96¢ | $1,041 | +$83 +8.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 1,110 | 82¢ → 94¢ | $1,038 | +$131 +15% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 74d | No | 1,500 | 66¢ → 68¢ | $1,020 | +$30 +3.0% |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 1,100 | 92¢ → 92¢ | $1,007 | −$6 −0.5% |
| Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 1,150 | 89¢ → 87¢ | $995 | −$24 −2.3% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 1,025 | 83¢ → 94¢ | $959 | +$109 +13% |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 946 | 80¢ → 97¢ | $916 | +$155 +20% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 1,000 | 62¢ → 79¢ | $790 | +$167 +27% |
| Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Ends in 74d | No | 1,000 | 82¢ → 78¢ | $775 | −$46 −5.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 800 | 22¢ → 89¢ | $708 | +$532 +302% |
| Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 798 | 78¢ → 84¢ | $666 | +$46 +7.5% |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 1,000 | 32¢ → 63¢ | $633 | +$313 +98% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 925 | 54¢ → 64¢ | $587 | +$88 +18% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 655 | 79¢ → 88¢ | $573 | +$56 +11% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?Ends in 4d | Yes | 575 | 92¢ → 96¢ | $549 | +$20 +3.8% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Ends in 5d | Yes | 600 | 87¢ → 92¢ | $549 | +$27 +5.2% |
| Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 770 | 75¢ → 71¢ | $543 | −$35 −6.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 74d | No | 1,000 | 44¢ → 54¢ | $535 | +$95 +22% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 13d | No | 574 | 65¢ → 93¢ | $531 | +$155 +41% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 559 | 85¢ → 93¢ | $520 | +$45 +9.5% |
| Will China become the #2 global art market in 2026?Ends in 165d | No | 555 | 75¢ → 89¢ | $494 | +$79 +19% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 580 | 69¢ → 73¢ | $421 | +$20 +5.1% |
| Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 1,000 | 40¢ → 42¢ | $420 | +$18 +4.6% |
| Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?Ends in 1d | No | 422 | 90¢ → 99¢ | $418 | +$37 +9.8% |
| Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 410 | 85¢ → 94¢ | $385 | +$37 +11% |
| Will the Florida Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Ends in 17d | No | 513 | 65¢ → 74¢ | $380 | +$46 +14% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 797 | 75¢ → 48¢ | $379 | −$219 −37% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | Yes | 700 | 15¢ → 53¢ | $369 | +$263 +249% |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 510 | 75¢ → 72¢ | $367 | −$15 −4.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 425 | 71¢ → 85¢ | $361 | +$60 +20% |
| Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?Ends in 75d | Yes | 555 | 71¢ → 65¢ | $358 | −$37 −9.3% |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 360 | 85¢ → 97¢ | $350 | +$44 +14% |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 10d | No | 375 | 84¢ → 92¢ | $343 | +$28 +8.9% |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?Ends in 43d | Yes | 600 | 65¢ → 56¢ | $339 | −$51 −13% |
| Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?Ends in 8d | No | 434 | 70¢ → 78¢ | $336 | +$33 +11% |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 375 | 80¢ → 87¢ | $324 | +$24 +8.1% |
| Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Ends in 17d | Yes | 450 | 63¢ → 72¢ | $322 | +$39 +14% |
| SpaceXAI matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 356 | 60¢ → 90¢ | $319 | +$103 +48% |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 452 | 54¢ → 68¢ | $307 | +$63 +26% |
| Meta matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 322 | 76¢ → 93¢ | $298 | +$53 +22% |
| Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 329 | 69¢ → 88¢ | $290 | +$63 +28% |
| Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 35m?Ends in 8h | No | 907 | 44¢ → 31¢ | $277 | −$124 −31% |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 452 | 60¢ → 59¢ | $265 | −$7 −2.5% |
| Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 301 | 53¢ → 84¢ | $253 | +$93 +58% |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 610 | 37¢ → 41¢ | $247 | +$21 +9.5% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 1,000 | 25¢ → 25¢ | $245 | −$5 −2.0% |
| Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?Ends in 1d | No | 250 | 87¢ → 97¢ | $241 | +$24 +11% |
| Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 250 | 90¢ → 95¢ | $236 | +$11 +5.0% |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 400 | 41¢ → 59¢ | $236 | +$72 +44% |
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 12,000 | 1¢ → 2¢ | $228 | +$156 +217% |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 43d | No | 1,060 | 21¢ → 21¢ | $217 | −$3 −1.6% |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 585 | 46¢ → 34¢ | $199 | −$70 −26% |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 200 | 87¢ → 97¢ | $195 | +$21 +12% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 1,750 | 15¢ → 11¢ | $184 | −$84 −31% |
| Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 7,200 | 1¢ → 2¢ | $169 | +$97 +135% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 439 | 51¢ → 36¢ | $156 | −$68 −30% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 431 | 69¢ → 36¢ | $155 | −$141 −48% |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 1,000 | 19¢ → 16¢ | $155 | −$35 −18% |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 600 | 38¢ → 26¢ | $153 | −$75 −33% |
| Will the Republican Party win the OH-09 House seat?Ends in 17d | Yes | 515 | 45¢ → 28¢ | $142 | −$90 −39% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 392 | 54¢ → 35¢ | $135 | −$77 −36% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 1,000 | 25¢ → 13¢ | $134 | −$120 −47% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | Yes | 975 | 12¢ → 14¢ | $132 | +$15 +13% |
| Meta announces a training pause by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 140 | 75¢ → 93¢ | $130 | +$25 +24% |
| Will the North Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Ends in 17d | No | 157 | 58¢ → 79¢ | $123 | +$32 +35% |
| Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 159 | 68¢ → 77¢ | $122 | +$15 +14% |
| Frontier AI labs announce new joint pacing agreement in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 175 | 67¢ → 70¢ | $122 | +$6 +5.1% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 2,100 | 5¢ → 6¢ | $119 | +$20 +20% |
| Amazon announces a training pause by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 120 | 81¢ → 98¢ | $117 | +$20 +21% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 3,600 | 3¢ → 3¢ | $117 | +$16 +16% |
| Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?Ends in 8d | No | 120 | 91¢ → 97¢ | $117 | +$8 +7.0% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 400 | 48¢ → 28¢ | $114 | −$77 −40% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 2,300 | 4¢ → 5¢ | $114 | +$15 +15% |
| Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 110 | 87¢ → 88¢ | $97 | +$1 +1.1% |
| Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Ends in 9d | No | 100 | 90¢ → 95¢ | $95 | +$5 +5.4% |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 84 | 85¢ → 96¢ | $81 | +$9 +13% |
| Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 144 | 50¢ → 55¢ | $79 | +$7 +9.5% |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 4,300 | 2¢ → 2¢ | $75 | −$24 −24% |
| Microsoft announces a training pause by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 71 | 73¢ → 99¢ | $70 | +$18 +35% |
| Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 139 | 36¢ → 45¢ | $63 | +$13 +25% |
| Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 7, 2026?Ends in 21d | Yes | 140 | 69¢ → 39¢ | $54 | −$43 −44% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | Yes | 1,400 | 5¢ → 3¢ | $39 | −$31 −44% |
| Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 10,300 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $36 | −$36 −50% |
| Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 9,000 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $32 | −$40 −56% |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 75 | 28¢ → 40¢ | $30 | +$9 +44% |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Ends in 440d | Yes | 82 | 25¢ → 33¢ | $27 | +$6 +30% |
| Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 60 | 39¢ → 37¢ | $22 | −$2 −6.4% |
| Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 101 | 10¢ → 19¢ | $20 | +$10 +99% |
| Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?Ends in 16d | No | 19 | 85¢ → 99¢ | $19 | +$3 +17% |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 15 | 91¢ → 91¢ | $14 | −$0 −0.5% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 24, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 255 | 5¢ → 4¢ | $10 | −$3 −21% |
| Will global art market sales hit $65 billion for 2026?Ends in 165d | Yes | 23 | 11¢ → 38¢ | $9 | +$6 +238% |
| Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 77 | 14¢ → 11¢ | $8 | −$2 −22% |
| Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election?Ends ended | Yes | 16 | 20¢ → 46¢ | $7 | +$4 +129% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 18, 2026?Ends in 1d | No | 54 | 10¢ → 12¢ | $6 | +$1 +15% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 27, 2026?Ends in 10d | No | 100 | 5¢ → 6¢ | $6 | +$1 +18% |
| Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | Yes | 2,900 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $3 | −$17 −85% |
