| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 13d | No | 366 | 87¢ → 93¢ | $339 | +$20 +6.3% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 400 | 76¢ → 76¢ | $302 | −$2 −0.7% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on October 17?Ends ended | Yes | 196 | 27¢ → 99¢ | $195 | +$141 +263% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Ends in 5d | Yes | 200 | 90¢ → 92¢ | $183 | +$3 +1.7% |
| Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 200 | 87¢ → 89¢ | $178 | +$4 +2.3% |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 17?Ends ended | No | 164 | 55¢ → >99¢ | $164 | +$74 +82% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 200 | 80¢ → 81¢ | $161 | +$1 +0.6% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Ends in 8d | No | 200 | 82¢ → 80¢ | $159 | −$5 −3.0% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 165 | 84¢ → 86¢ | $141 | +$2 +1.8% |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on October 17?Ends ended | No | 125 | 68¢ → >99¢ | $125 | +$40 +47% |
| Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 150 | 82¢ → 79¢ | $118 | −$4 −3.4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on October 17?Ends ended | Yes | 117 | 51¢ → >99¢ | $117 | +$57 +97% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?Ends in 440d | Yes | 120 | 95¢ → 96¢ | $115 | +$1 +0.8% |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on October 17?Ends ended | Yes | 159 | 55¢ → 68¢ | $107 | +$20 +23% |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on October 17?Ends ended | Yes | 103 | 21¢ → >99¢ | $102 | +$81 +377% |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on October 17?Ends ended | No | 100 | 50¢ → >99¢ | $100 | +$50 +100% |
| Will Falcons Win the Thunderpick World Championship 2026?Ends in 2d | No | 100 | 55¢ → >99¢ | $100 | +$45 +83% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 140 | 70¢ → 70¢ | $99 | +$0 +0.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on October 17?Ends ended | No | 100 | 75¢ → 98¢ | $98 | +$24 +32% |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 17?Ends ended | No | 100 | 82¢ → 98¢ | $98 | +$16 +19% |
| Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | Yes | 400 | 25¢ → 25¢ | $98 | −$2 −2.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or below on October 17?Ends ended | Yes | 94 | 58¢ → >99¢ | $94 | +$40 +72% |
| Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?Ends in 6d | No | 120 | 78¢ → 78¢ | $93 | −$1 −0.6% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on October 18?Ends in 4h | Yes | 217 | 41¢ → 42¢ | $91 | +$1 +1.4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on October 17?Ends ended | Yes | 90 | 29¢ → >99¢ | $90 | +$64 +245% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on October 17?Ends ended | No | 89 | 85¢ → 97¢ | $86 | +$11 +14% |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 18?Ends in 4h | Yes | 203 | 44¢ → 41¢ | $83 | −$6 −6.8% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Ends in 79d | Yes | 95 | 84¢ → 83¢ | $78 | −$1 −1.8% |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on October 17?Ends ended | Yes | 134 | 13¢ → 56¢ | $75 | +$57 +316% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 94 | 82¢ → 78¢ | $74 | −$4 −4.8% |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on October 17?Ends ended | No | 73 | 83¢ → >99¢ | $73 | +$13 +21% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 18?Ends in 4h | No | 145 | 50¢ → 51¢ | $73 | +$1 +1.1% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Ends in 8d | No | 100 | 71¢ → 73¢ | $73 | +$2 +2.1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on October 17?Ends ended | No | 69 | 85¢ → >99¢ | $69 | +$10 +17% |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 17?Ends ended | Yes | 68 | 66¢ → >99¢ | $68 | +$23 +52% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on October 17?Ends ended | No | 68 | 68¢ → >99¢ | $68 | +$22 +47% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 119 | 58¢ → 56¢ | $66 | −$3 −4.3% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on October 17?Ends ended | No | 113 | 57¢ → 55¢ | $62 | −$2 −3.7% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on October 18?Ends in 4h | No | 99 | 62¢ → 63¢ | $62 | +$1 +1.3% |
| Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 400 | 18¢ → 16¢ | $62 | −$10 −14% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on October 17?Ends ended | No | 61 | 88¢ → >99¢ | $61 | +$7 +13% |
| Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?Ends in 2d | No | 70 | 58¢ → 87¢ | $61 | +$20 +49% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on October 17?Ends ended | Yes | 74 | 34¢ → 81¢ | $60 | +$35 +141% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 43d | Yes | 149 | 37¢ → 40¢ | $59 | +$4 +6.8% |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on October 17?Ends ended | Yes | 135 | 61¢ → 43¢ | $58 | −$24 −29% |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on October 17?Ends ended | No | 58 | 63¢ → >99¢ | $58 | +$22 +60% |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 60 | 95¢ → 96¢ | $58 | +$0 +0.6% |
| Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Ends in 52d | No | 70 | 83¢ → 81¢ | $56 | −$2 −2.6% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 17?Ends ended | No | 57 | 49¢ → >99¢ | $56 | +$29 +103% |
| Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government?Ends in 440d | Yes | 60 | 95¢ → 93¢ | $56 | −$1 −1.6% |
| Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 140 | 44¢ → 40¢ | $55 | −$7 −11% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 84 | 66¢ → 65¢ | $54 | −$1 −2.3% |
| Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?Ends in 3d | No | 61 | 83¢ → 86¢ | $52 | +$1 +2.5% |
| Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 10d | Yes | 60 | 84¢ → 85¢ | $51 | +$0 +0.6% |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on October 17?Ends ended | No | 58 | 79¢ → 85¢ | $49 | +$3 +7.6% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 55 | 92¢ → 90¢ | $49 | −$1 −2.6% |
| Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government?Ends in 440d | No | 52 | 92¢ → 94¢ | $49 | +$1 +1.6% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | No | 100 | 48¢ → 48¢ | $48 | −$0 −0.5% |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 4?Ends ended | Yes | 60 | 57¢ → 79¢ | $47 | +$13 +37% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?Ends in 5d | No | 50 | 94¢ → 93¢ | $47 | −$0 −0.5% |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 17?Ends ended | Yes | 46 | 46¢ → >99¢ | $46 | +$25 +117% |
| Will Lionel Messi win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player?Ends in 75d | Yes | 50 | 92¢ → 93¢ | $46 | +$0 +0.3% |
| Will Jynxzi reach Unreal rank in Fortnite by October 23, 2026?Ends in 6d | No | 200 | 36¢ → 23¢ | $46 | −$26 −36% |
| Will Lil Uzi Vert release an album in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 100 | 47¢ → 46¢ | $46 | −$2 −3.2% |
| Union Pacific (UNP) Q3 adjusted operating ratio <58%?Ends in 4d | No | 52 | 82¢ → 87¢ | $45 | +$3 +6.0% |
| Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?Ends in 7d | No | 58 | 80¢ → 78¢ | $45 | −$1 −3.1% |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?Ends in 2d | No | 50 | 91¢ → 90¢ | $45 | −$1 −1.1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on October 17?Ends ended | No | 45 | 38¢ → >99¢ | $45 | +$28 +163% |
| Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 60 | 83¢ → 75¢ | $45 | −$5 −9.9% |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Ends in 53d | Yes | 57 | 82¢ → 78¢ | $44 | −$2 −5.1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?Ends in 2d | No | 50 | 88¢ → 88¢ | $44 | −$0 −0.4% |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?Ends in 5d | No | 50 | 89¢ → 88¢ | $44 | −$1 −1.7% |
| Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?Ends in 2d | No | 56 | 88¢ → 78¢ | $44 | −$6 −12% |
| United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 83% to 84%?Ends in 2d | No | 50 | 91¢ → 87¢ | $43 | −$2 −4.1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on October 18?Ends in 4h | No | 84 | 61¢ → 52¢ | $43 | −$8 −16% |
| Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Q3 comparable sales growth 4% to 6%?Ends in 3d | No | 55 | 76¢ → 78¢ | $43 | +$1 +2.5% |
| Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?Ends in 165d | No | 100 | 43¢ → 43¢ | $43 | +$0 +0.8% |
| Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?Ends in 53d | No | 50 | 85¢ → 82¢ | $41 | −$2 −3.6% |
| Will Texas Instruments (TXN) Q3 Analog revenue be above $5B?Ends in 3d | No | 46 | 83¢ → 89¢ | $41 | +$2 +6.1% |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 50 | 81¢ → 81¢ | $40 | −$0 −0.6% |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on October 17?Ends ended | No | 40 | 85¢ → >99¢ | $40 | +$6 +18% |
| Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?Ends in 2d | Yes | 55 | 82¢ → 72¢ | $40 | −$6 −12% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 18?Ends in 4h | No | 50 | 79¢ → 76¢ | $38 | −$1 −3.4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 17?Ends ended | Yes | 38 | 55¢ → >99¢ | $38 | +$17 +82% |
| Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?Ends in 6d | Yes | 40 | 94¢ → 95¢ | $38 | +$1 +1.3% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 18?Ends in 4h | No | 59 | 64¢ → 64¢ | $38 | +$0 +0.4% |
| Will Jynxzi reach Unreal rank in Fortnite by October 19, 2026? (copy)Ends in 2d | No | 69 | 73¢ → 54¢ | $37 | −$14 −27% |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on October 17?Ends ended | No | 54 | 65¢ → 68¢ | $37 | +$1 +3.9% |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on October 18?Ends in 4h | No | 51 | 74¢ → 71¢ | $36 | −$2 −4.3% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 103 | 40¢ → 35¢ | $36 | −$6 −13% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 18?Ends in 4h | Yes | 145 | 31¢ → 24¢ | $35 | −$10 −23% |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C on October 17?Ends ended | No | 50 | 83¢ → 69¢ | $34 | −$7 −17% |
| Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 43d | No | 69 | 36¢ → 50¢ | $34 | +$9 +39% |
| Will the Democrats win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Ends in 16d | Yes | 40 | 90¢ → 85¢ | $34 | −$2 −5.6% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Delaware Senate election by 20%-25%?Ends in 17d | No | 40 | 82¢ → 83¢ | $33 | +$0 +0.6% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 18?Ends in 4h | Yes | 44 | 64¢ → 75¢ | $33 | +$5 +17% |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 40 | 86¢ → 82¢ | $33 | −$2 −5.7% |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 18?Ends in 1d | Yes | 47 | 54¢ → 69¢ | $32 | +$7 +27% |
| Meta (META) Q3 ad impression growth across Family of Apps 13% to 16%?Ends in 3d | No | 40 | 78¢ → 81¢ | $32 | +$1 +3.2% |
| United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%?Ends in 2d | No | 50 | 62¢ → 64¢ | $32 | +$1 +2.4% |
