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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 100% | +19 pts | +67 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Donald Trump | 0% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jared Kushner | 100% | +3 pts | +58 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Marco Rubio | 0% | −2 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Steve Witkoff | 100% | +3 pts | +57 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 117d | Top1-J3 fills | Marco Rubio | BuyNo>99¢ | $48,255 | +$86 +0.2% | 4 |
| 117d | Reasonable-Tabby | Donald Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $4,546 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 117d | Trustinghorse | Marco Rubio | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,547 | +$10 +0.1% | 4 |
| 117d | Reasonable-Tabby | Donald Trump | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,546 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 117d | 0xa14b…05e4 | Jared Kushner | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,205 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 117d | Jared Kushner | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,269 | +$12 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 117d | Steve Witkoff | BuyYes>99¢ | $22,275 | +$29 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 117d | 0xa14b…05e42 fills | Steve Witkoff | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,439 | +$25 +0.3% | 4 |
| 117d | GoblinMarine | J.D. Vance | SellYes>99¢ | $5,884 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 118d | J.D. Vance | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,889 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 118d | Top1-J3 fills | J.D. Vance | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,288 | +$18 +0.1% | 4 |
| 118d | bitdady | J.D. Vance | SellYes>99¢ | $3,333 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 118d | Top1-J | Jared Kushner | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 118d | Top1-J | Steve Witkoff | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,589 | +$11 +0.7% | 4 |
| 118d | nickthechopper2 fills | Steve Witkoff | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,981 | +$37 +1.2% | 4 |
| 118d | nickthechopper | J.D. Vance | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,366 | +$24 +1.0% | 4 |
| 118d | nickthechopper | Jared Kushner | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,522 | +$16 +1.1% | 4 |
| 118d | bitdady2 fills | J.D. Vance | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,856 | +$44 +1.5% | 4 |
| 118d | J.D. Vance | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,082 | +$12 +1.1% | 4 | |
| 118d | nonkenny902 fills | Marco Rubio | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,188 | +$67 +2.1% | 4 |
| 118d | Steve Witkoff | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,285 | +$58 +4.6% | 4 | |
| 118d | J.D. Vance | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $2,546 | +$637 +25% | 4 | |
| 118d | Ox4B7e1D3cA9825F0aC176bE29d830A54F12cD78a6 | Jared Kushner | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,479 | +$221 +15% | 4 |
| 119d | Steve Witkoff | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,160 | +$164 +14% | 4 | |
| 119d | Skinny-Class3 fills | J.D. Vance | BuyNo57¢ → 0¢ | $5,795 | −$5,795 −100% | 4 |
| 119d | Jared Kushner | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,240 | +$402 +32% | 4 | |
| 119d | GoblinMarine | J.D. Vance | BuyYes41¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$2,879 +144% | 5 |
| 119d | J.D. Vance | BuyNo71¢ → 0¢ | $3,079 | −$3,079 −100% | 4 | |
| 119d | Donald Trump | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,206 | +$107 +1.3% | 4 | |
| 120d | Skinny-Class | Donald Trump | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,085 | −$15 −1.4% | — |
| 121d | Skinny-Class | J.D. Vance | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $4,536 | +$1,432 +32% | 4 |
| 121d | 0xefce…4e4a | J.D. Vance | BuyNo49¢ → 0¢ | $1,472 | −$1,472 −100% | 4 |
| 121d | Skinny-Class2 fills | J.D. Vance | SellNo55¢ → 0¢ | $2,504 | +$2,504 +100% | — |
| 121d | Skinny-Class | Donald Trump | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,600 | +$300 +8.3% | 4 |
| 121d | Donald Trump | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $9,046 | −$953 −11% | — | |
| 121d | Donald Trump | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,155 | −$91 −7.9% | — | |
| 121d | Impure-Contagion | J.D. Vance | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,143 | +$233 +20% | 4 |
| 122d | J.D. Vance | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,581 | +$793 +50% | 4 | |
| 122d | Marco Rubio | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,222 | −$95 −7.8% | — | |
| 123d | Donald Trump | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,134 | +$111 +9.8% | 4 | |
| 123d | Donald Trump | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $6,123 | +$658 +11% | 4 | |
| 123d | Marco Rubio | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,340 | +$126 +9.4% | 4 | |
| 123d | J.D. Vance | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,063 | +$528 +50% | 4 | |
| 124d | cccyun | J.D. Vance | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,125 | +$325 +29% | 4 |
| 124d | Donald Trump | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,618 | +$212 +13% | 4 | |
| 134d | J.D. Vance | SellNo87¢ → 0¢ | $3,040 | +$3,040 +100% | — | |
| 148d | Huludubu | Marco Rubio | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,025 | −$100 −9.8% | — |
| 148d | Donald Trump | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,218 | +$212 +3.4% | 4 | |
| 151d | Skinny-Class | Steve Witkoff | BuyYes56¢ → 100¢ | $1,115 | +$885 +79% | 4 |
| 151d | J.D. Vance | SellNo72¢ → 0¢ | $1,197 | +$1,197 +100% | — | |
| 153d | Donald Trump | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,705 | −$64 −3.7% | — | |
| 154d | Hormuzisnotstr8 | Marco Rubio | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,206 | −$119 −9.9% | — |
| 163d | kkj | Donald Trump | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,224 | −$42 −3.4% | — |
| 174d | J.D. Vance | BuyYes58¢ → 100¢ | $2,537 | +$1,800 +71% | 4 | |
| 175d | Halion | J.D. Vance | SellNo69¢ → 0¢ | $1,071 | +$1,071 +100% | — |
| 175d | J.D. Vance | SellYes26¢ → 100¢ | $1,505 | −$4,197 −279% | — | |
| 175d | J.D. Vance | SellNo68¢ → 0¢ | $1,007 | +$1,007 +100% | — | |
| 175d | NoSteinNoGate | Steve Witkoff | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,458 | +$280 +19% | 4 |
| 176d | kkj | Donald Trump | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,679 | +$87 +5.2% | 4 |
| 177d | elenaarybakin21 | Donald Trump | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,221 | −$73 −6.0% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting. If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for J.D. Vance means the market gives it about 100%.