LudwigVonMises

Polymarket wallet 0xc432a1b8fafca668688c23052f4f722552ef0fc9 · on Polymarket since Oct 28, 2025 · also shown as Sneaky-Case

Open on Polymarket ↗

Positions now worth: $2.01K
All-time profit: +$691
Volume traded: $11.5K
All-time rank: #98,456
Markets traded: 287
Recent hit rate: 96%48 of last 50 closed

Open positions

100 markets · $1.99K

Market	Holding		Paid → now
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended	Yes	1,203	37¢ → 77¢	$926	+$475 +105%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended	No	927	57¢ → 77¢	$709	+$184 +35%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Ends in 49d	Yes	61	52¢ → 98¢	$60	+$28 +87%
Blue wave in 2026?Ends in 79d	No	285	21¢ → 17¢	$47	−$13 −22%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 75d	No	162	46¢ → 29¢	$46	−$29 −38%
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?Ends in 6d	Yes	38	80¢ → 94¢	$35	+$5 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	Yes	63	56¢ → 53¢	$33	−$2 −5.9%
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Ends in 8d	Yes	75	40¢ → 37¢	$27	−$3 −8.8%
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d	Yes	30	84¢ → 91¢	$27	+$2 +7.7%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Ends in 49d	No	24	41¢ → >99¢	$24	+$14 +143%
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?Ends in 8d	Yes	65	31¢ → 35¢	$22	+$2 +12%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Ends in 8d	Yes	76	33¢ → 28¢	$22	−$3 −14%
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?Ends in 75d	$140	11	45¢ → 55¢	$6	+$1 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	Yes	22	45¢ → 20¢	$4	−$6 −55%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Ends in 82d	Yes	60	25¢ → 4¢	$2	−$13 −85%
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?Ends in 75d	Yes	29	35¢ → 6¢	$2	−$8 −84%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 183d	Yes	43	23¢ → 1¢	$0	−$10 −98%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	Yes	11	19¢ → 2¢	$0	−$2 −88%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Ends in 165d	Yes	61	8¢ → <1¢	$0	−$5 −98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 21?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	13	16¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 8?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	8	26¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Settled - ready to redeem	No	34	60¢ → 0¢	$0	−$20 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 29?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	56	4¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will "Jurassic World Rebirth" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	102	2¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 30?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	26	19¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem	No	4	81¢ → 0¢	$0	−$3 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 30?Settled - ready to redeem	No	7	71¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. Hawks Total Games O/U 5.5Settled - ready to redeem	Under 5.5	23	44¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?Settled - ready to redeem	No	7	76¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will Sanderson win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	6	45¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will "Jurassic World Rebirth" be the top global Netflix movie this week?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	91	2¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on March 23?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	40	5¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will Brazil’s Q4 2025 GDP growth rate (YoY) be less than 0.4%?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	29	34¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs?Settled - ready to redeem	No	18	57¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Wuhan Tennis Open: Karolina Muchova vs Diana ShnaiderSettled - ready to redeem	Karolina Muchova	20	49¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Will Ryan Rollins win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	38	10¢ → 0¢	$0	−$4 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 29?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	6	22¢ → 0¢	$0	−$1 −100%
Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?Settled - ready to redeem	No	14	70¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	95	53¢ → 0¢	$0	−$50 −100%
Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	14	36¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will Julio Cesar win the second-most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?Settled - ready to redeem	No	20	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 1?Settled - ready to redeem	No	5	73¢ → 0¢	$0	−$4 −100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	10	48¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	24	41¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Will Lahesio Bonfim win the Governor of Maranhão election?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	11	9¢ → 0¢	$0	−$1 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 7?Settled - ready to redeem	No	6	85¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on March 26?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	8	25¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	28	54¢ → 0¢	$0	−$15 −100%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	7	70¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	29	17¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 30?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	12	42¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	172	3¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 8?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	8	38¢ → 0¢	$0	−$3 −100%
Will Trump attend UFC 327?Settled - ready to redeem	No	23	8¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	16	13¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 6?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	5	38¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will "The Addams Family" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	29	17¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 29?Settled - ready to redeem	No	12	81¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 24?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	17	30¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 20?Settled - ready to redeem	No	14	74¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 18?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	14	36¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 8?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	7	29¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 27?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	6	32¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 7?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	4	43¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 6?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	4	23¢ → 0¢	$0	−$1 −100%
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	15	13¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 4?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	5	41¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 22?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	14	14¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or higher on March 9?Settled - ready to redeem	No	8	64¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 3?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	11	18¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	79	1¢ → 0¢	$0	−$1 −100%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	179	3¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on April 2?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	8	66¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	61	8¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	24	42¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	24	42¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 23?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	28	18¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 21?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	21	14¢ → 0¢	$0	−$3 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 18?Settled - ready to redeem	No	11	91¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem	No	57	18¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	9	57¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on April 14?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	15	55¢ → 0¢	$0	−$8 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on April 20?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	21	24¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	14	73¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 3?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	16	32¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 30?Settled - ready to redeem	No	7	67¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	56	45¢ → 0¢	$0	−$25 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 25?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	63	3¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 24?Settled - ready to redeem	No	12	84¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Pará?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	79	6¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. NuggetsSettled - ready to redeem	Nuggets	34	59¢ → 0¢	$0	−$20 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 25?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	14	36¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 29?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	12	42¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	11	53¢ → 0¢	$0	−$6 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 13?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	6	36¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Will the Charlotte Hornets make the NBA Playoffs?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	9	55¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 8?Settled - ready to redeem	No	6	84¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will Flávio Roscoe win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	34	14¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	18	28¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 18?Settled - ready to redeem	No	7	68¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%

Latest trades

last 60

When	Market	Bet	Size
7h	Spread: Coritiba FBC (-1.5) AND Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5) AND Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5) AND Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-10-17?	Buy49¢	$10
7h	Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-17? AND Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-10-17?	Buy43¢	$10
7h	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-18? AND Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-18? AND Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?	Buy18¢	$2
7h	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-17? AND Will Fulham FC win on 2026-10-17?	Buy47¢	$10
1d	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-15?	BuyNo56¢	$15
2d	Blue wave in 2026?	BuyNo16¢	$26
2d	Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-10-14?	BuyNo68¢	$7
2d	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Alex de Minaur AND Zverev vs. Minaur: Match O/U 23.5	Buy30¢	$5
2d	Wuhan Tennis Open: Karolina Muchova vs Diana Shnaider	BuyKarolina Muchova49¢	$10
2d	Thunder vs. Rockets AND Raptors vs. Knicks	Buy25¢	$5
2d	Nuggets vs. Clippers AND Suns vs. Spurs	Buy47¢	$5
2d	Will AZ win on 2026-10-15? AND Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-15? AND Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-10-15? AND Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-15?	Buy36¢	$10
2d	Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-10-15? AND Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-10-15? AND Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-15? AND Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-10-15?	Buy44¢	$10
6d	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?	BuyYes31¢	$21
6d	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	BuyYes40¢	$31
10d	Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	BuyYes80¢	$30
11d	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	BuyYes33¢	$26
12d	Will Helio Bolsonaro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?	SellYes<1¢	$0
12d	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Alagoas?	SellYes<1¢	$0
13d	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BuyYes42¢	$14
13d	Will Deltan Dallagnol win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?	SellYes44¢	$14
13d	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	BuyYes41¢	$3
16d	Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	BuyYes22¢	$5
17d	Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	BuyYes19¢	$10
18d	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Pará?	BuyYes6¢	$5
18d	Will Mexico win on 2026-09-29? AND Will Albania win on 2026-09-29? AND Will Spain win on 2026-09-29? AND Will Slovakia win on 2026-09-29? AND Will United States win on 2026-09-29? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-09-30?	Buy25¢	$6
19d	Hangzhou Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Roman Safiullin AND Chengdu Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina AND Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Yoshihito Nishioka	Buy42¢	$5
19d	Spread: Bengals (-3.5)	SellSteelers>99¢	$9
19d	Texans vs. Colts	SellColts>99¢	$11
20d	Texans vs. Colts	BuyColts47¢	$5
20d	Ravens vs. Cowboys: O/U 53.5	BuyUnder52¢	$5
20d	Spread: Bengals (-3.5)	BuySteelers55¢	$5
20d	Cardinals vs. 49ers AND Seahawks vs. Commanders AND Chargers vs. Bills AND Jets vs. Lions	Buy35¢	$20
20d	Norway vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 AND Austria vs. Kosovo: O/U 3.5	Buy63¢	$10
20d	Will Germany win on 2026-09-27? AND Will Austria win on 2026-09-27? AND Will Denmark win on 2026-09-27?	Buy29¢	$10
20d	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	BuyYes26¢	$15
20d	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BuyYes57¢	$51
20d	Will Julio Cesar win the second-most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?	BuyNo50¢	$10
20d	Will Mendonça Filho win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	BuyYes25¢	$5
20d	Will Deltan Dallagnol win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?	BuyYes15¢	$5
20d	Will Wellington Fagundes win the 2026 Mato Grosso gubernatorial election?	BuyYes52¢	$5
20d	Will Marco Antônio Superman win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?	BuyYes4¢	$2
20d	Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	BuyYes40¢	$5
20d	Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	SellYes99¢	$157
20d	Will Aécio Neves win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?	BuyNo54¢	$24
20d	Will Capitão Contar win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election?	BuyYes66¢	$10
20d	Will Marília Campos win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?	BuyNo72¢	$25
20d	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	BuyYes39¢	$26
20d	Will Benedita da Silva win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?	BuyNo55¢	$25
20d	Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	BuyYes14¢	$5
20d	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	SellNo99¢	$115
20d	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Alagoas?	BuyYes3¢	$3
20d	Will Domingos Sávio win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?	BuyYes36¢	$3
20d	Will Sanderson win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?	BuyYes45¢	$3
20d	Will Helio Bolsonaro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?	BuyYes6¢	$3
20d	Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?	SellYes88¢	$11
43d	Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	BuyYes7¢	$6
43d	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	BuyYes13¢	$6
68d	Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	BuyYes42¢	$10
68d	Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	BuyYes4¢	$5

Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 50 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.

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