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Polymarket wallet 0xf1c0d539fbdb437b8d61409fbec07daa1900a5a2 · on Polymarket since Apr 28, 2026 · also shown as Cylindrical-Liar
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 20,092 | 81¢ → 81¢ | $16,174 | −$158 −1.0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?Ends in 1d | Yes | 4,110 | 94¢ → 96¢ | $3,943 | +$80 +2.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 553 | 73¢ → 85¢ | $470 | +$68 +17% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 388 | 77¢ → 77¢ | $297 | −$3 −0.9% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseEnds in 17d | Yes | 254 | 59¢ → 63¢ | $159 | +$9 +5.9% |
| Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 237 | 76¢ → 63¢ | $148 | −$31 −17% |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 101 | 52¢ → 65¢ | $66 | +$13 +25% |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 30 | 94¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$28 −100% |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 50 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.