| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,654 | 80¢ → 74¢ | $1,216 | −$104 −7.9% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,649 | 57¢ → 40¢ | $660 | −$284 −30% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,605 | 50¢ → 26¢ | $409 | −$394 −49% |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,295 | 44¢ → 24¢ | $311 | −$255 −45% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 800 | 24¢ → 23¢ | $180 | −$12 −6.4% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,088 | 43¢ → 14¢ | $158 | −$314 −67% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Ends in 256d | Yes | 98 | 90¢ → 99¢ | $97 | +$9 +11% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 1,400 | 11¢ → 7¢ | $91 | −$66 −42% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 409 | 37¢ → 18¢ | $74 | −$76 −51% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 200 | 46¢ → 36¢ | $71 | −$21 −23% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Ends in 256d | Yes | 80 | 75¢ → 84¢ | $67 | +$7 +11% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 70 | 87¢ → 81¢ | $57 | −$4 −7.0% |
| Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 216 | 15¢ → 25¢ | $53 | +$21 +63% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 250 | 41¢ → 21¢ | $51 | −$51 −50% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 547 | 10¢ → 9¢ | $47 | −$9 −17% |
| Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 200 | 42¢ → 16¢ | $31 | −$52 −63% |
| US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 300 | 12¢ → 5¢ | $14 | −$23 −63% |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 135 | 20¢ → 9¢ | $11 | −$16 −59% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 50 | 17¢ → 14¢ | $7 | −$1 −16% |
| Will Google have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 151 | 4¢ → 4¢ | $6 | +$0 +1.2% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 47 | 19¢ → 10¢ | $5 | −$4 −47% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?Ends in 8h | Yes | 71 | 71¢ → 1¢ | $0 | −$50 −99% |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 210 | 52¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$109 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 454 | 54¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$246 −100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on December 3?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 994 | 17¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$169 −100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 November 24-30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 197 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 197 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$67 −100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 24-30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 270 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$37 −100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,500 on December 10?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 309 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$12 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 20 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 39 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 November 24-30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 80 | 27¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$22 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 30 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 70 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$24 −100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 500 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on December 4?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 387 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Does Ox Alpha belong to Safe Superintelligence?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 715 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 25 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 487 | 19¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$90 −100% |
| Will OpenAI have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 7?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 518 | 68¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$354 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 200 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 20 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 23 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 4?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 5,533 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$163 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 120 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 40 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on December 4?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 344 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on December 3?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,500 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 54 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 27?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 150 | 22¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$33 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 162 | 92¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$149 −100% |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 32¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$32 −100% |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,100 | 92¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,010 −100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on December 10?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 309 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$44 −100% |
| Will Google have the best Image Edit AI at the end of September 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 657 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$43 −100% |
| Will xAI have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 7?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 50 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 150 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 272 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 60 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 133 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$45 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 29 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,500 on December 4?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 850 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 400 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 November 24-30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 321 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 10 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 50 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 72 | 65¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$47 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 30 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on or prior to October 1, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 14 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Will Tencent have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 7?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 20 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 411 | 32¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$133 −100% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,044 | 23¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$242 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in March 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 193 | 88¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$170 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 15 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 11 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on December 3?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,500 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 50 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 300 | 82¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$246 −100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on December 4?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,650 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$106 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 23 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 50 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 73 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on December 4?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 650 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 30 | 11¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 170 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$12 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 70 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 20 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 12 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 40 | 41¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 9?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 567 | 40¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$225 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 16 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 24-30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 321 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 30 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
