| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseEnds in 17d | Yes | 102 | 60¢ → 63¢ | $64 | +$3 +4.5% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d | Yes | 56 | 45¢ → 87¢ | $48 | +$23 +93% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 58 | 47¢ → 77¢ | $45 | +$17 +62% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | No | 44 | 68¢ → 73¢ | $32 | +$2 +7.1% |
| Will Russia enter Moskovka by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 34 | 53¢ → 94¢ | $32 | +$14 +78% |
| Will Gary Sulz win the 2026 Revelstoke mayoral election?Ends in 8h | Yes | 36 | 56¢ → 84¢ | $30 | +$10 +50% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 47 | 62¢ → 63¢ | $30 | +$0 +0.8% |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 44 | 67¢ → 60¢ | $26 | −$3 −11% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 13d | No | 26 | 66¢ → 93¢ | $24 | +$7 +40% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 25 | 79¢ → 94¢ | $24 | +$4 +18% |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 30 | 75¢ → 74¢ | $22 | −$0 −1.6% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 24 | 54¢ → 93¢ | $22 | +$9 +73% |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 27 | 74¢ → 75¢ | $20 | +$0 +0.7% |
| Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?Ends ended | Yes | 19 | 54¢ → 91¢ | $17 | +$7 +68% |
| Will Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Ends in 21d | Yes | 21 | 47¢ → 76¢ | $16 | +$6 +62% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | Yes | 31 | 46¢ → 53¢ | $16 | +$2 +15% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 20 | 30¢ → 80¢ | $16 | +$10 +165% |
| Will Anton Danko win the 2026 Poprad mayoral election?Ends in 7d | Yes | 17 | 59¢ → 84¢ | $14 | +$4 +42% |
| Will Kyle Hamilton win the 2026 Fernie mayoral election?Ends in 8h | Yes | 38 | 40¢ → 38¢ | $14 | −$1 −6.9% |
| Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in Iowa in the 2026 midterm elections?Ends in 17d | No | 28 | 36¢ → 51¢ | $14 | +$4 +40% |
| Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 14 | 72¢ → 98¢ | $14 | +$4 +36% |
| Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?Ends in 10d | Yes | 17 | 60¢ → 81¢ | $14 | +$4 +36% |
| Will the Democrats win Fort Bend County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 16d | Yes | 14 | 72¢ → 98¢ | $14 | +$4 +36% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 14 | 69¢ → 94¢ | $14 | +$4 +36% |
| Z.ai matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 14 | 73¢ → 97¢ | $13 | +$3 +32% |
| Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?Ends in 17d | No | 16 | 64¢ → 83¢ | $13 | +$3 +29% |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?Ends in 6d | Yes | 14 | 71¢ → 90¢ | $13 | +$3 +27% |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 8d | Yes | 14 | 70¢ → 89¢ | $13 | +$3 +26% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 20 | 50¢ → 63¢ | $12 | +$2 +25% |
| Will Andris Kulbergs be the next Prime Minister of Latvia?Ends ended | Yes | 13 | 79¢ → 98¢ | $12 | +$2 +23% |
| Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 7d | No | 20 | 50¢ → 62¢ | $12 | +$2 +23% |
| Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?Ends in 12d | No | 25 | 40¢ → 49¢ | $12 | +$2 +21% |
| Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 8d | No | 14 | 73¢ → 89¢ | $12 | +$2 +21% |
| Will Aaron Orlando win the 2026 Revelstoke mayoral election?Ends in 8h | No | 12 | 75¢ → 99¢ | $12 | +$3 +32% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 17 | 60¢ → 72¢ | $12 | +$2 +19% |
| Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 13 | 76¢ → 91¢ | $12 | +$2 +19% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 14 | 73¢ → 86¢ | $12 | +$2 +17% |
| Will Eva Lindberg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Gävleborg?Ends ended | Yes | 13 | 78¢ → 91¢ | $12 | +$2 +17% |
| Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 13 | 75¢ → 86¢ | $12 | +$2 +16% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?Ends in 8h | No | 12 | 77¢ → 99¢ | $11 | +$3 +29% |
| Will three people dissent the October Fed decision?Ends in 10d | No | 13 | 77¢ → 88¢ | $11 | +$1 +14% |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 10d | Yes | 17 | 60¢ → 69¢ | $11 | +$1 +14% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 55% or more?Ends in 17d | No | 13 | 79¢ → 90¢ | $11 | +$1 +13% |
| Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 21 | 46¢ → 53¢ | $11 | +$1 +15% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NE-02 House election by 20%-25%?Ends in 17d | No | 13 | 79¢ → 87¢ | $11 | +$1 +9.5% |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 13 | 80¢ → 88¢ | $11 | +$1 +9.4% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?Ends in 17d | Yes | 13 | 77¢ → 84¢ | $11 | +$1 +8.4% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 17d | Yes | 16 | 61¢ → 65¢ | $11 | +$1 +5.7% |
| Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?Ends in 17d | No | 20 | 29¢ → 52¢ | $10 | +$5 +79% |
| Will Ben Dudman win the next Meander Valley mayoral election?Ends in 10d | Yes | 32 | 31¢ → 33¢ | $10 | +$0 +3.2% |
| Will Republicans win white voters in the midterms?Ends in 20d | Yes | 13 | 78¢ → 82¢ | $10 | +$0 +4.2% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-01 House election by 65%-70%?Ends in 17d | No | 15 | 68¢ → 69¢ | $10 | +$0 +1.2% |
| Will Mattias Ottosson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Östergötland?Ends ended | Yes | 12 | 66¢ → 82¢ | $10 | +$2 +24% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 13 | 79¢ → 77¢ | $10 | −$0 −2.6% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?Ends in 6d | No | 10 | 40¢ → 97¢ | $10 | +$6 +142% |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia be between 450,000 and 500,000?Ends in 17d | Yes | 24 | 41¢ → 40¢ | $10 | −$0 −3.7% |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Ends ended | No | 16 | 64¢ → 62¢ | $10 | −$0 −3.9% |
| Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?Ends ended | Yes | 17 | 59¢ → 57¢ | $10 | −$0 −3.9% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 12 | 64¢ → 81¢ | $9 | +$2 +27% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 25 | 40¢ → 38¢ | $9 | −$1 −6.3% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-12 House election by 30%-35%?Ends in 17d | No | 13 | 75¢ → 70¢ | $9 | −$1 −7.0% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 80¢ → 93¢ | $9 | +$1 +16% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 25%-30%?Ends in 17d | No | 14 | 74¢ → 65¢ | $9 | −$1 −12% |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-07 House election by 12%-15%?Ends in 17d | No | 10 | 79¢ → 86¢ | $9 | +$1 +8.9% |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 10 | 67¢ → 87¢ | $9 | +$2 +29% |
| Will Democrats sweep the Maine Senate and Governor elections?Ends in 17d | Yes | 16 | 64¢ → 55¢ | $9 | −$1 −15% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 10 | 52¢ → 81¢ | $8 | +$3 +55% |
| Will Connie Chan win the CA-11 House seat?Ends in 17d | No | 10 | 60¢ → 79¢ | $8 | +$2 +32% |
| Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election?Ends ended | No | 14 | 72¢ → 54¢ | $8 | −$2 −25% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Secretary of State election?Ends in 16d | No | 50 | 20¢ → 15¢ | $8 | −$3 −25% |
| Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 39 | 26¢ → 19¢ | $7 | −$3 −28% |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 10 | 63¢ → 66¢ | $7 | +$0 +4.0% |
| Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?Ends in 3d | Yes | 8 | 35¢ → 79¢ | $6 | +$4 +124% |
| Will Brett Whiteley win the next Latrobe mayoral election?Ends in 10d | No | 19 | 23¢ → 32¢ | $6 | +$2 +37% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 44 | 25¢ → 13¢ | $5 | −$6 −51% |
| Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 17 | 58¢ → 31¢ | $5 | −$5 −47% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Jersey Senate election by 21% or more?Ends in 17d | No | 10 | 25¢ → 50¢ | $5 | +$3 +98% |
| Will Harshan Ramadass win the 2026 Fernie mayoral election?Ends in 8h | Yes | 9 | 38¢ → 55¢ | $5 | +$1 +43% |
| Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 22 | 46¢ → 23¢ | $5 | −$5 −51% |
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?Ends in 17d | Yes | 30 | 33¢ → 16¢ | $5 | −$5 −52% |
| Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 9 | 55¢ → 51¢ | $5 | −$0 −8.2% |
| Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?Ends in 6d | Yes | 20 | 50¢ → 22¢ | $4 | −$6 −56% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Arizona Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 17d | No | 14 | 40¢ → 31¢ | $4 | −$1 −24% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d | Yes | 32 | 63¢ → 14¢ | $4 | −$16 −79% |
| Will the Democrats win Washoe County in the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 16d | No | 11 | 32¢ → 36¢ | $4 | +$0 +13% |
| Will Democrats sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?Ends in 17d | Yes | 5 | 47¢ → 73¢ | $4 | +$1 +54% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 15 | 64¢ → 24¢ | $3 | −$6 −63% |
| Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CA-43 House election?Ends in 16d | No | 5 | 79¢ → 63¢ | $3 | −$1 −21% |
| Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WA-02 House election?Ends in 16d | No | 5 | 80¢ → 62¢ | $3 | −$1 −23% |
| Will Doris Matsui win the CA-07 House seat?Ends in 17d | Yes | 5 | 42¢ → 61¢ | $3 | +$1 +44% |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 5 | 65¢ → 59¢ | $3 | −$0 −10% |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | No | 31 | 32¢ → 9¢ | $3 | −$7 −73% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 39 | 36¢ → 7¢ | $3 | −$12 −82% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Ends in 13d | Yes | 53 | 44¢ → 5¢ | $2 | −$21 −90% |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 3 | 61¢ → 72¢ | $2 | +$0 +17% |
| Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 22 | 45¢ → 9¢ | $2 | −$8 −80% |
| Will Rastislav Mochnacký win the 2026 Prešov mayoral election?Ends in 7d | Yes | 36 | 25¢ → 5¢ | $2 | −$7 −79% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 26 | 49¢ → 7¢ | $2 | −$11 −86% |
| Will Mikuláš Bobák win the 2026 Poprad mayoral election?Ends in 7d | Yes | 20 | 23¢ → 9¢ | $2 | −$3 −61% |
| California voter ID referendum passes?Ends in 17d | Yes | 7 | 38¢ → 24¢ | $2 | −$1 −37% |
