| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 1,150 | 82¢ → 85¢ | $972 | +$32 +3.4% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 500 | 93¢ → 93¢ | $463 | −$1 −0.2% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 400 | 92¢ → 95¢ | $378 | +$9 +2.5% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 440 | 72¢ → 80¢ | $350 | +$31 +9.8% |
| Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 350 | 86¢ → 97¢ | $339 | +$38 +13% |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 531d | No | 400 | 80¢ → 84¢ | $337 | +$19 +5.8% |
| US recession by end of 2026?Ends in 105d | No | 350 | 91¢ → 93¢ | $325 | +$7 +2.1% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 320 | 57¢ → 87¢ | $278 | +$95 +52% |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?Ends in 75d | No | 250 | 92¢ → 94¢ | $236 | +$5 +2.2% |
| No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 200 | 77¢ → 97¢ | $195 | +$41 +27% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 200 | 89¢ → 96¢ | $192 | +$14 +8.0% |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 200 | 91¢ → 95¢ | $189 | +$7 +4.1% |
| Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 531d | Yes | 200 | 50¢ → 82¢ | $163 | +$62 +62% |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 210 | 77¢ → 76¢ | $159 | −$3 −1.8% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 200 | 78¢ → 76¢ | $151 | −$5 −2.9% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 150 | 92¢ → 96¢ | $145 | +$7 +4.8% |
| Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 150 | 91¢ → 96¢ | $144 | +$7 +5.5% |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 150 | 92¢ → 96¢ | $143 | +$5 +3.7% |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 150 | 82¢ → 95¢ | $142 | +$19 +16% |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 150 | 91¢ → 95¢ | $142 | +$5 +4.0% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 150 | 90¢ → 94¢ | $141 | +$7 +4.9% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Ends in 440d | Yes | 240 | 48¢ → 57¢ | $137 | +$22 +19% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Ends in 17d | Yes | 150 | 83¢ → 91¢ | $136 | +$11 +8.5% |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 150 | 80¢ → 91¢ | $136 | +$15 +13% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 150 | 76¢ → 89¢ | $133 | +$19 +17% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 150 | 88¢ → 85¢ | $128 | −$4 −3.0% |
| AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 150 | 81¢ → 84¢ | $125 | +$4 +3.1% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseEnds in 17d | Yes | 200 | 47¢ → 63¢ | $125 | +$30 +32% |
| Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?Ends in 75d | No | 118 | 90¢ → 95¢ | $112 | +$5 +4.9% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 100 | 98¢ → 99¢ | $99 | +$1 +1.5% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 100 | 92¢ → 97¢ | $97 | +$4 +4.8% |
| Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 100 | 81¢ → 96¢ | $96 | +$15 +19% |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 100 | 92¢ → 94¢ | $94 | +$2 +2.4% |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 100 | 89¢ → 94¢ | $94 | +$5 +5.3% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseEnds in 17d | No | 100 | 92¢ → 92¢ | $92 | −$0 −0.5% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 100 | 81¢ → 92¢ | $92 | +$10 +12% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 100 | 83¢ → 89¢ | $89 | +$6 +7.1% |
| Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 140 | 45¢ → 63¢ | $88 | +$25 +39% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 100 | 81¢ → 83¢ | $83 | +$1 +1.8% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseEnds in 17d | Yes | 200 | 34¢ → 28¢ | $55 | −$13 −19% |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Ends in 2d | No | 50 | 87¢ → 98¢ | $49 | +$5 +13% |
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 50 | 88¢ → 98¢ | $49 | +$5 +11% |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?Ends in 106d | No | 50 | 93¢ → 97¢ | $49 | +$2 +4.5% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 50 | 90¢ → 97¢ | $48 | +$3 +7.5% |
| Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Ends in 43d | No | 300 | 18¢ → 16¢ | $47 | −$9 −16% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 50 | 75¢ → 89¢ | $44 | +$7 +19% |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 50 | 77¢ → 76¢ | $38 | −$1 −1.9% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | No | 50 | 72¢ → 74¢ | $37 | +$1 +2.1% |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended | No | 40 | 80¢ → 83¢ | $33 | +$1 +4.3% |
| Panama Canal effectively closed by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 30 | 97¢ → 99¢ | $30 | +$1 +1.8% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 34% by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 50 | 49¢ → 51¢ | $25 | +$1 +3.9% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 30 | 82¢ → 73¢ | $22 | −$3 −11% |
| Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 130 | 24¢ → 16¢ | $20 | −$11 −35% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?Ends in 3h | Yes | 20 | 95¢ → >99¢ | $20 | +$1 +4.7% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 40 | 58¢ → 49¢ | $19 | −$4 −16% |
| Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?Ends in 75d | No | 20 | 86¢ → 96¢ | $19 | +$2 +11% |
| US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 20 | 86¢ → 96¢ | $19 | +$2 +11% |
| Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 20 | 80¢ → 93¢ | $19 | +$3 +16% |
| Plague case in US by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 20 | 90¢ → 93¢ | $19 | +$1 +2.8% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Ends in 5d | Yes | 20 | 89¢ → 92¢ | $18 | +$1 +2.8% |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 20 | 78¢ → 88¢ | $18 | +$2 +13% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 20 | 84¢ → 84¢ | $17 | −$0 −0.6% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027?Ends in 348d | No | 40 | 41¢ → 41¢ | $16 | −$0 −1.2% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 20 | 78¢ → 81¢ | $16 | +$1 +3.5% |
| Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 18 | 70¢ → 89¢ | $16 | +$3 +27% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Ends in 44d | No | 20 | 70¢ → 78¢ | $16 | +$2 +12% |
| Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 20 | 70¢ → 74¢ | $15 | +$1 +5.8% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 37% by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 20 | 78¢ → 72¢ | $14 | −$1 −7.4% |
| Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 40 | 51¢ → 36¢ | $14 | −$6 −30% |
| Will voter turnout be less than 62% in the 2026 Spanish general election?Ends in 43d | No | 15 | 91¢ → 94¢ | $14 | +$0 +2.7% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?Ends in 165d | No | 20 | 66¢ → 70¢ | $14 | +$1 +5.3% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 20 | 62¢ → 70¢ | $14 | +$2 +12% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 31, 2027?Ends in 106d | Yes | 20 | 66¢ → 66¢ | $13 | $0 0.0% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Ends in 18d | No | 20 | 64¢ → 64¢ | $13 | −$0 −0.8% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 20 | 80¢ → 64¢ | $13 | −$3 −21% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 43d | No | 20 | 58¢ → 61¢ | $12 | +$1 +4.3% |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?Ends in 106d | Yes | 150 | 6¢ → 8¢ | $12 | +$2 +20% |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?Ends in 43d | Yes | 20 | 66¢ → 56¢ | $11 | −$2 −14% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027?Ends in 318d | Yes | 20 | 58¢ → 56¢ | $11 | −$1 −4.3% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 20 | 67¢ → 56¢ | $11 | −$2 −17% |
| Will no live-action Gwen Stacy actor be chosen by end of 2027?Ends in 439d | Yes | 20 | 38¢ → 50¢ | $10 | +$2 +30% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 30 | 53¢ → 32¢ | $9 | −$6 −40% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?Ends in 226d | Yes | 20 | 47¢ → 47¢ | $9 | −$0 −1.1% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 30 | 40¢ → 31¢ | $9 | −$3 −23% |
| Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Ends in 52d | No | 10 | 70¢ → 91¢ | $9 | +$2 +30% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 72¢ → 91¢ | $9 | +$2 +26% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 46% in 2026?Ends in 78d | No | 10 | 90¢ → 91¢ | $9 | +$0 +0.6% |
| Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 83¢ → 91¢ | $9 | +$1 +9.0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Ends in 7d | Yes | 10 | 86¢ → 88¢ | $9 | +$0 +1.7% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 100 | 13¢ → 8¢ | $8 | −$5 −40% |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 20?Ends ended | No | 9 | 90¢ → 83¢ | $8 | −$1 −7.8% |
| SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 10 | 55¢ → 74¢ | $7 | +$2 +35% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?Ends in 44d | No | 10 | 54¢ → 74¢ | $7 | +$2 +37% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?Ends in 439d | Yes | 150 | 5¢ → 5¢ | $7 | +$0 +0.4% |
| Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?Ends in 106d | No | 10 | 71¢ → 73¢ | $7 | +$0 +2.1% |
| Any G20 leader out in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 8 | 86¢ → 87¢ | $7 | +$0 +1.2% |
| Will Stephanie Cameron win the next Meander Valley mayoral election?Ends in 10d | Yes | 20 | 56¢ → 36¢ | $7 | −$4 −36% |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 30?Ends in 44d | Yes | 8 | 84¢ → 85¢ | $7 | +$0 +0.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Ends in 44d | Yes | 150 | 14¢ → 5¢ | $7 | −$15 −69% |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 20 | 29¢ → 34¢ | $7 | +$1 +16% |
