| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 864 | 36¢ → 29¢ | $247 | −$63 −20% |
| Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Ends in 440d | No | 155 | 63¢ → 82¢ | $127 | +$29 +30% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,963 | 43¢ → 6¢ | $108 | −$744 −87% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 166 | 79¢ → 64¢ | $106 | −$24 −19% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 214 | 54¢ → 47¢ | $101 | −$14 −12% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 13d | No | 106 | 68¢ → 93¢ | $98 | +$26 +37% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Ends in 165d | Yes | 88 | 72¢ → 59¢ | $51 | −$11 −18% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 55 | 64¢ → 94¢ | $51 | +$16 +46% |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 8d | Yes | 55 | 55¢ → 89¢ | $49 | +$18 +61% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseEnds in 17d | No | 122 | 54¢ → 38¢ | $46 | −$21 −31% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 54 | 27¢ → 85¢ | $45 | +$31 +213% |
| Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 55 | 73¢ → 82¢ | $45 | +$5 +12% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 346 | 49¢ → 12¢ | $40 | −$129 −76% |
| Will AI solve Beal's conjecture in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 44 | 73¢ → 87¢ | $38 | +$6 +19% |
| Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 55 | 71¢ → 68¢ | $37 | −$2 −4.9% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 74d | No | 55 | 67¢ → 68¢ | $37 | +$0 +0.7% |
| Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-10-17?Ends ended | Yes | 33 | 71¢ → >99¢ | $33 | +$10 +41% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 132 | 26¢ → 25¢ | $32 | −$2 −5.8% |
| US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 33 | 54¢ → 97¢ | $32 | +$14 +79% |
| Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 33 | 66¢ → 96¢ | $32 | +$10 +45% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 33 | 57¢ → 95¢ | $31 | +$12 +66% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 33 | 65¢ → 91¢ | $30 | +$8 +39% |
| US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 33 | 74¢ → 91¢ | $30 | +$5 +22% |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 33 | 60¢ → 86¢ | $28 | +$9 +43% |
| Will AI solve the Hadwiger-Nelson problem in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 33 | 67¢ → 86¢ | $28 | +$6 +28% |
| Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 33 | 67¢ → 85¢ | $28 | +$6 +26% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 33 | 75¢ → 85¢ | $28 | +$3 +13% |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 99 | 36¢ → 28¢ | $28 | −$8 −22% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 33 | 31¢ → 84¢ | $28 | +$17 +169% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 33 | 64¢ → 81¢ | $27 | +$6 +27% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 202 | 41¢ → 13¢ | $27 | −$55 −68% |
| Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-10-17?Ends ended | No | 44 | 63¢ → 60¢ | $26 | −$2 −5.6% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 143 | 26¢ → 18¢ | $25 | −$12 −32% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 44 | 44¢ → 56¢ | $25 | +$5 +27% |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 33 | 64¢ → 74¢ | $24 | +$3 +16% |
| Will Ceará SC win on 2026-10-17?Ends ended | No | 33 | 67¢ → 72¢ | $24 | +$2 +7.5% |
| Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 44 | 54¢ → 53¢ | $23 | −$0 −1.9% |
| Will América FC win on 2026-10-17?Ends ended | No | 33 | 71¢ → 71¢ | $23 | −$0 −0.7% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?Ends in 3d | No | 33 | 69¢ → 68¢ | $22 | −$0 −0.8% |
| Will CA Platense win on 2026-10-17?Ends ended | No | 33 | 68¢ → 68¢ | $22 | −$0 −0.7% |
| Will Al Diraiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-10-17?Ends ended | No | 22 | 27¢ → >99¢ | $22 | +$16 +270% |
| Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-10-17?Ends ended | Yes | 22 | 53¢ → 96¢ | $21 | +$9 +81% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 33 | 67¢ → 64¢ | $21 | −$1 −4.5% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 33 | 62¢ → 63¢ | $21 | +$0 +1.6% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 33 | 60¢ → 63¢ | $21 | +$1 +4.2% |
| Will Hannover 96 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?Ends ended | Yes | 22 | 35¢ → 92¢ | $20 | +$12 +161% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 43d | No | 33 | 58¢ → 61¢ | $20 | +$1 +4.3% |
| Hurricanes vs. JetsEnds ended | Hurricanes | 33 | 65¢ → 61¢ | $20 | −$1 −6.9% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 55 | 60¢ → 35¢ | $19 | −$14 −42% |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?Ends in 43d | Yes | 33 | 68¢ → 56¢ | $19 | −$4 −17% |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 17d | Yes | 50 | 50¢ → 37¢ | $18 | −$7 −27% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 17d | No | 50 | 50¢ → 36¢ | $18 | −$7 −29% |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 55 | 40¢ → 32¢ | $17 | −$5 −21% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseEnds in 17d | Yes | 61 | 33¢ → 28¢ | $17 | −$3 −16% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 33 | 68¢ → 51¢ | $17 | −$6 −26% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 106 | 37¢ → 16¢ | $16 | −$23 −58% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | No | 33 | 54¢ → 48¢ | $16 | −$2 −11% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 168 | 15¢ → 9¢ | $15 | −$10 −41% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Ends in 29d | No | 33 | 44¢ → 46¢ | $15 | +$0 +3.4% |
| Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 677 | 1¢ → 2¢ | $15 | +$10 +203% |
| Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-17?Ends ended | No | 22 | 63¢ → 68¢ | $15 | +$1 +7.1% |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 22 | 66¢ → 66¢ | $15 | $0 0.0% |
| Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 116 | 21¢ → 13¢ | $15 | −$10 −40% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 55 | 62¢ → 26¢ | $14 | −$20 −59% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | Yes | 49 | 38¢ → 28¢ | $14 | −$5 −25% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 22 | 30¢ → 61¢ | $13 | +$7 +103% |
| Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 44 | 20¢ → 30¢ | $13 | +$4 +50% |
| Will FC Penafiel win on 2026-10-18?Ends ended | No | 15 | 42¢ → 87¢ | $13 | +$7 +106% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Ends in 106d | No | 33 | 34¢ → 38¢ | $12 | +$1 +10% |
| OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 20 | 46¢ → 60¢ | $12 | +$3 +30% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 43d | No | 33 | 29¢ → 36¢ | $12 | +$2 +24% |
| Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-10-17?Ends ended | No | 22 | 52¢ → 53¢ | $12 | +$0 +1.0% |
| Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 55 | 15¢ → 21¢ | $11 | +$3 +37% |
| Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 19 | 58¢ → 57¢ | $11 | −$0 −1.7% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?Ends ended | Yes | 59 | 60¢ → 18¢ | $11 | −$25 −69% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 33 | 37¢ → 33¢ | $11 | −$1 −12% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 17 | 47¢ → 65¢ | $11 | +$3 +37% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Ends in 74d | No | 55 | 22¢ → 19¢ | $10 | −$2 −16% |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 103 | 21¢ → 10¢ | $10 | −$12 −55% |
| Will AA Coimbra win on 2026-10-18?Ends ended | No | 15 | 52¢ → 65¢ | $10 | +$2 +25% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 33 | 63¢ → 28¢ | $9 | −$11 −55% |
| Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 55 | 30¢ → 17¢ | $9 | −$7 −45% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 752d | Yes | 42 | 24¢ → 21¢ | $9 | −$1 −13% |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 22 | 27¢ → 40¢ | $9 | +$3 +46% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?Ends in 439d | Yes | 150 | 1¢ → 6¢ | $9 | +$6 +297% |
| SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 33 | 43¢ → 26¢ | $9 | −$6 −40% |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 33 | 62¢ → 24¢ | $8 | −$13 −61% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 752d | Yes | 88 | 9¢ → 9¢ | $8 | +$0 +4.1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?Ends in 440d | Yes | 33 | 25¢ → 23¢ | $8 | −$1 −8.0% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland GuardiansEnds in 7d | Tampa Bay Rays | 15 | 51¢ → 51¢ | $8 | −$0 −1.0% |
| Will FC Universitario win on 2026-10-17?Ends ended | No | 15 | 46¢ → 48¢ | $7 | +$0 +4.3% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 44 | 53¢ → 16¢ | $7 | −$16 −70% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?Ends in 4h | No | 7 | 38¢ → >99¢ | $7 | +$4 +162% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Ends ended | Yes | 22 | 35¢ → 31¢ | $7 | −$1 −12% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 22 | 37¢ → 29¢ | $6 | −$2 −20% |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 33 | 18¢ → 20¢ | $6 | +$0 +8.3% |
| Will CA Boston River win on 2026-10-17?Ends ended | No | 22 | 60¢ → 26¢ | $6 | −$8 −58% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Ends ended | Yes | 22 | 42¢ → 25¢ | $5 | −$4 −42% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 22 | 24¢ → 25¢ | $5 | +$0 +2.1% |
| Kraken vs. PanthersEnds ended | Kraken | 15 | 36¢ → 36¢ | $5 | −$0 −1.4% |
