| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?Ends in 27m | No | 10 | 20¢ → >99¢ | $10 | +$8 +398% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 87¢ → 99¢ | $10 | +$1 +14% |
| Will Leonardo Badea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Ends in 74d | No | 10 | 79¢ → 99¢ | $10 | +$2 +26% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?Ends in 440d | No | 10 | 93¢ → 99¢ | $10 | +$1 +7.0% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?Ends in 74d | No | 10 | 79¢ → 98¢ | $10 | +$2 +24% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?Ends in 1d | Yes | 10 | 90¢ → 98¢ | $10 | +$1 +8.5% |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Ends in 2d | No | 10 | 87¢ → 98¢ | $10 | +$1 +12% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 94¢ → 98¢ | $10 | +$0 +3.9% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?Ends in 74d | No | 10 | 88¢ → 98¢ | $10 | +$1 +12% |
| Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 61¢ → 98¢ | $10 | +$4 +60% |
| Jack O'Connell announced as next James Bond?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 87¢ → 98¢ | $10 | +$1 +12% |
| Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Ends ended | No | 10 | 83¢ → 97¢ | $10 | +$1 +17% |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 12d | No | 10 | 64¢ → 96¢ | $10 | +$3 +51% |
| Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Ends in 164d | No | 10 | 87¢ → 95¢ | $10 | +$1 +9.3% |
| Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Ends in 164d | No | 10 | 94¢ → 95¢ | $9 | +$0 +1.3% |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 76¢ → 95¢ | $9 | +$2 +25% |
| Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Ends in 74d | Yes | 10 | 92¢ → 95¢ | $9 | +$0 +2.5% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 77¢ → 95¢ | $9 | +$2 +23% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?Ends in 74d | No | 10 | 77¢ → 94¢ | $9 | +$2 +22% |
| US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 88¢ → 94¢ | $9 | +$1 +6.6% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 13d | No | 10 | 73¢ → 94¢ | $9 | +$2 +27% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 10 | 40¢ → 93¢ | $9 | +$5 +131% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 440d | No | 10 | 95¢ → 92¢ | $9 | −$0 −3.3% |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in October?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 83¢ → 92¢ | $9 | +$1 +10% |
| Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 89¢ → 92¢ | $9 | +$0 +2.8% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Ends in 8d | No | 10 | 86¢ → 91¢ | $9 | +$1 +6.6% |
| Clavicular charges dropped by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 89¢ → 91¢ | $9 | +$0 +2.2% |
| Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 8d | No | 10 | 70¢ → 89¢ | $9 | +$2 +26% |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 8d | Yes | 10 | 85¢ → 89¢ | $9 | +$0 +4.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 9 | 65¢ → 94¢ | $9 | +$3 +44% |
| Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Ends in 2d | No | 10 | 56¢ → 85¢ | $9 | +$3 +51% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | No | 10 | 80¢ → 85¢ | $8 | +$0 +6.1% |
| Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Ends in 43d | Yes | 10 | 77¢ → 85¢ | $8 | +$1 +9.7% |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 531d | No | 10 | 71¢ → 85¢ | $8 | +$1 +19% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 14¢ → 84¢ | $8 | +$7 +496% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 10 | 33¢ → 84¢ | $8 | +$5 +153% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 440d | No | 10 | 85¢ → 83¢ | $8 | −$0 −2.4% |
| Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?Ends in 53d | No | 10 | 73¢ → 83¢ | $8 | +$1 +14% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 61¢ → 83¢ | $8 | +$2 +35% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 440d | No | 10 | 77¢ → 82¢ | $8 | +$0 +6.3% |
| Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 85¢ → 82¢ | $8 | −$0 −3.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 10 | 53¢ → 81¢ | $8 | +$3 +52% |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?Ends in 17d | No | 10 | 73¢ → 81¢ | $8 | +$1 +10% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 52d | No | 10 | 48¢ → 79¢ | $8 | +$3 +64% |
| Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 84¢ → 78¢ | $8 | −$1 −7.1% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Ends in 44d | No | 10 | 63¢ → 78¢ | $8 | +$2 +24% |
| Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 88¢ → 78¢ | $8 | −$1 −12% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | No | 10 | 83¢ → 78¢ | $8 | −$1 −6.6% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 10 | 76¢ → 77¢ | $8 | +$0 +1.3% |
| Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Ends ended | Yes | 10 | 15¢ → 77¢ | $8 | +$6 +406% |
| Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?Ends in 42d | No | 10 | 61¢ → 76¢ | $8 | +$2 +25% |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?Ends in 1171d | No | 10 | 74¢ → 76¢ | $8 | +$0 +2.7% |
| Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 65¢ → 76¢ | $8 | +$1 +16% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Ends ended | No | 10 | 9¢ → 76¢ | $8 | +$7 +788% |
| Will Gyanesh Kumar be out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 62¢ → 76¢ | $8 | +$1 +22% |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 62¢ → 74¢ | $7 | +$1 +19% |
| Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 7 | 96¢ → 98¢ | $7 | +$0 +2.5% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Ends in 8d | No | 10 | 61¢ → 73¢ | $7 | +$1 +19% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 66¢ → 73¢ | $7 | +$1 +9.8% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 10 | 73¢ → 72¢ | $7 | −$0 −0.7% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 43¢ → 72¢ | $7 | +$3 +66% |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 66¢ → 71¢ | $7 | +$1 +8.8% |
| Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 82¢ → 71¢ | $7 | −$1 −14% |
| Will the Student List win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 66¢ → 71¢ | $7 | +$0 +6.8% |
| Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 14¢ → 70¢ | $7 | +$6 +387% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?Ends in 165d | No | 10 | 45¢ → 70¢ | $7 | +$2 +54% |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 57¢ → 70¢ | $7 | +$1 +22% |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?Ends in 27m | No | 8 | 90¢ → 91¢ | $7 | +$0 +1.4% |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 7 | 25¢ → 96¢ | $7 | +$5 +284% |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 33¢ → 66¢ | $7 | +$3 +98% |
| Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 10 | 29¢ → 64¢ | $6 | +$4 +121% |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Ends in 8d | No | 10 | 68¢ → 64¢ | $6 | −$0 −6.6% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?Ends in 90d | No | 10 | 34¢ → 64¢ | $6 | +$3 +87% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 8 | 78¢ → 79¢ | $6 | +$0 +1.3% |
| Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?Ends ended | Yes | 6 | 94¢ → >99¢ | $6 | +$0 +6.2% |
| Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 9 | 49¢ → 69¢ | $6 | +$2 +39% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 10 | 44¢ → 61¢ | $6 | +$2 +39% |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 10 | 59¢ → 60¢ | $6 | +$0 +0.8% |
| Will Ron Cannan win the 2026 Kelowna mayoral election?Ends in 27m | No | 10 | 50¢ → 59¢ | $6 | +$1 +18% |
| Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 10 | 52¢ → 59¢ | $6 | +$1 +13% |
| Will the Bank of Korea hold at the November 2026 meeting?Ends in 39d | No | 10 | 58¢ → 59¢ | $6 | +$0 +0.9% |
| Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?Ends ended | No | 6 | 93¢ → 99¢ | $6 | +$0 +6.9% |
| Will Javier Milei win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Ends in 372d | Yes | 10 | 45¢ → 58¢ | $6 | +$1 +29% |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Ends in 106d | No | 10 | 59¢ → 56¢ | $6 | −$0 −4.2% |
| Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?Ends in 5d | No | 10 | 54¢ → 55¢ | $6 | +$0 +1.9% |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 10 | 56¢ → 55¢ | $5 | −$0 −2.7% |
| Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?Ends in 84d | No | 10 | 48¢ → 54¢ | $5 | +$1 +11% |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 10 | 71¢ → 54¢ | $5 | −$2 −25% |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 9 | 54¢ → 59¢ | $5 | +$0 +8.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 74d | No | 10 | 32¢ → 53¢ | $5 | +$2 +66% |
| Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?Ends in 6d | No | 7 | 49¢ → 78¢ | $5 | +$2 +58% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 10 | 45¢ → 53¢ | $5 | +$1 +17% |
| Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Ends in 372d | No | 10 | 53¢ → 52¢ | $5 | −$0 −2.8% |
| Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?Ends in 5d | No | 10 | 49¢ → 50¢ | $5 | +$0 +3.2% |
| Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?Ends in 1171d | No | 10 | 48¢ → 50¢ | $5 | +$0 +3.1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?Ends in 14d | Yes | 10 | 58¢ → 49¢ | $5 | −$1 −16% |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?Ends in 8d | No | 7 | 54¢ → 72¢ | $5 | +$1 +32% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 10 | 48¢ → 48¢ | $5 | −$0 −1.0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 22¢ → 48¢ | $5 | +$3 +116% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?Ends in 14d | Yes | 10 | 24¢ → 48¢ | $5 | +$2 +98% |
