| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?Ends ended | No | 10 | 20¢ → >99¢ | $10 | +$8 +400% |
| Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Ends in 2d | No | 10 | 51¢ → 99¢ | $10 | +$5 +95% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?Ends in 440d | No | 10 | 93¢ → 99¢ | $10 | +$1 +6.9% |
| Will Rafael Marín Mollinedo win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?Ends in 232d | No | 10 | 86¢ → 99¢ | $10 | +$1 +15% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 94¢ → 98¢ | $10 | +$0 +3.9% |
| Jack O'Connell announced as next James Bond?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 87¢ → 98¢ | $10 | +$1 +12% |
| Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Ends in 52d | No | 10 | 85¢ → 97¢ | $10 | +$1 +14% |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 12d | No | 10 | 72¢ → 96¢ | $10 | +$2 +34% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 10 | 57¢ → 93¢ | $9 | +$4 +62% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 440d | No | 10 | 95¢ → 92¢ | $9 | −$0 −3.4% |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in October?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 83¢ → 92¢ | $9 | +$1 +10% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Ends in 8d | No | 10 | 86¢ → 91¢ | $9 | +$1 +6.2% |
| Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 83¢ → 91¢ | $9 | +$1 +9.2% |
| SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 10 | 59¢ → 90¢ | $9 | +$3 +53% |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 8d | Yes | 10 | 85¢ → 89¢ | $9 | +$0 +4.1% |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?Ends ended | No | 10 | 89¢ → 88¢ | $9 | −$0 −1.0% |
| Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?Ends ended | Yes | 9 | 92¢ → >99¢ | $9 | +$1 +8.5% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Ends in 79d | No | 10 | 77¢ → 86¢ | $9 | +$1 +11% |
| Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Ends in 43d | Yes | 10 | 77¢ → 85¢ | $8 | +$1 +9.7% |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 531d | No | 10 | 70¢ → 84¢ | $8 | +$1 +20% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 440d | No | 10 | 85¢ → 84¢ | $8 | −$0 −1.2% |
| Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?Ends in 53d | No | 10 | 70¢ → 82¢ | $8 | +$1 +18% |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?Ends in 17d | No | 10 | 75¢ → 82¢ | $8 | +$1 +9.3% |
| Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 79¢ → 81¢ | $8 | +$0 +2.0% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | No | 10 | 85¢ → 81¢ | $8 | −$0 −4.7% |
| Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 84¢ → 80¢ | $8 | −$0 −5.1% |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 48¢ → 80¢ | $8 | +$3 +66% |
| Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?Ends in 8d | No | 10 | 85¢ → 79¢ | $8 | −$1 −6.4% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Ends in 44d | No | 10 | 63¢ → 79¢ | $8 | +$2 +25% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 52d | No | 10 | 48¢ → 79¢ | $8 | +$3 +64% |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?Ends in 2d | No | 10 | 80¢ → 78¢ | $8 | −$0 −2.5% |
| Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?Ends in 6d | No | 10 | 39¢ → 78¢ | $8 | +$4 +99% |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 75¢ → 76¢ | $8 | +$0 +0.5% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 39¢ → 76¢ | $8 | +$4 +94% |
| Will Gyanesh Kumar be out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 72¢ → 76¢ | $8 | +$0 +4.9% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Ends ended | No | 10 | 12¢ → 75¢ | $8 | +$6 +525% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 72¢ → 73¢ | $7 | +$0 +0.7% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 10 | 74¢ → 72¢ | $7 | −$0 −2.0% |
| Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 10 | 46¢ → 71¢ | $7 | +$3 +54% |
| Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 88¢ → 70¢ | $7 | −$2 −20% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Ends in 8d | No | 10 | 60¢ → 70¢ | $7 | +$1 +16% |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 0%-5%?Ends in 17d | No | 10 | 74¢ → 69¢ | $7 | −$1 −7.4% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 61¢ → 69¢ | $7 | +$1 +12% |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?Ends in 8d | No | 10 | 54¢ → 65¢ | $7 | +$1 +20% |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Ends in 8d | No | 10 | 70¢ → 64¢ | $6 | −$1 −9.3% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?Ends in 90d | No | 10 | 34¢ → 62¢ | $6 | +$3 +81% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 10 | 47¢ → 61¢ | $6 | +$1 +30% |
| Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Ends in 101d | Yes | 10 | 46¢ → 60¢ | $6 | +$1 +29% |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 10 | 59¢ → 60¢ | $6 | +$0 +0.8% |
| Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 10 | 52¢ → 59¢ | $6 | +$1 +13% |
| Will Javier Milei win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Ends in 372d | Yes | 10 | 45¢ → 58¢ | $6 | +$1 +29% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Ends in 106d | Yes | 10 | 64¢ → 57¢ | $6 | −$1 −10% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?Ends in 14d | Yes | 10 | 58¢ → 56¢ | $6 | −$0 −2.6% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 13d | No | 6 | 75¢ → 93¢ | $5 | +$1 +24% |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 10 | 56¢ → 54¢ | $5 | −$0 −4.5% |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 10 | 70¢ → 54¢ | $5 | −$2 −24% |
| Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 31¢ → 53¢ | $5 | +$2 +71% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 10 | 46¢ → 53¢ | $5 | +$1 +14% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 10 | 45¢ → 53¢ | $5 | +$1 +17% |
| Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Ends in 372d | No | 10 | 54¢ → 52¢ | $5 | −$0 −4.6% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 10 | 57¢ → 50¢ | $5 | −$1 −13% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 74d | No | 10 | 32¢ → 49¢ | $5 | +$2 +52% |
| Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?Ends in 84d | No | 10 | 47¢ → 49¢ | $5 | +$0 +3.2% |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 10 | 54¢ → 47¢ | $5 | −$1 −12% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?Ends in 14d | Yes | 10 | 24¢ → 47¢ | $5 | +$2 +96% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 54¢ → 46¢ | $5 | −$1 −15% |
| Will any contestant beat Luke Littler?Ends in 13d | Yes | 10 | 36¢ → 42¢ | $4 | +$1 +17% |
| Will LOUD win VALORANT Champions 2026?Ends in 2d | No | 10 | 44¢ → 42¢ | $4 | −$0 −5.4% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 10 | 73¢ → 41¢ | $4 | −$3 −44% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Ends in 8d | Yes | 10 | 33¢ → 41¢ | $4 | +$1 +23% |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 10 | 32¢ → 41¢ | $4 | +$1 +27% |
| Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?Ends ended | Yes | 10 | 10¢ → 41¢ | $4 | +$3 +305% |
| Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 10 | 50¢ → 40¢ | $4 | −$1 −21% |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?Ends in 20h | No | 5 | 63¢ → 79¢ | $4 | +$1 +25% |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Ends in 8d | No | 10 | 28¢ → 39¢ | $4 | +$1 +38% |
| Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Ends ended | Yes | 5 | 15¢ → 77¢ | $4 | +$3 +408% |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 10 | 64¢ → 38¢ | $4 | −$3 −40% |
| Will Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?Ends in 232d | No | 10 | 47¢ → 38¢ | $4 | −$1 −18% |
| Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 7d | Yes | 10 | 38¢ → 36¢ | $4 | −$0 −6.6% |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 41¢ → 36¢ | $4 | −$1 −13% |
| Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?Ends in 42d | No | 10 | 25¢ → 35¢ | $4 | +$1 +40% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 9 | 35¢ → 40¢ | $3 | +$0 +13% |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Ends in 8d | No | 10 | 31¢ → 34¢ | $3 | +$0 +9.7% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 4 | 70¢ → 77¢ | $3 | +$0 +10.0% |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by March 31, 2027?Ends in 165d | Yes | 10 | 42¢ → 33¢ | $3 | −$1 −21% |
| Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 51¢ → 32¢ | $3 | −$2 −37% |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 50¢ → 32¢ | $3 | −$2 −36% |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 10 | 22¢ → 32¢ | $3 | +$1 +43% |
| US imports Russian diesel by November 30?Ends in 44d | Yes | 10 | 36¢ → 32¢ | $3 | −$0 −13% |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 10d | Yes | 10 | 44¢ → 32¢ | $3 | −$1 −28% |
| Will the Democrats win Collin County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 16d | No | 10 | 32¢ → 31¢ | $3 | −$0 −3.1% |
| Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?Ends in 20d | Yes | 10 | 13¢ → 31¢ | $3 | +$2 +138% |
| Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 37¢ → 31¢ | $3 | −$1 −16% |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in October?Ends in 14d | Yes | 10 | 56¢ → 31¢ | $3 | −$3 −45% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 25¢ → 31¢ | $3 | +$1 +22% |
| Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 10 | 31¢ → 31¢ | $3 | $0 0.0% |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026?Ends in 20h | No | 10 | 21¢ → 30¢ | $3 | +$1 +40% |
| Will the Student List win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 7d | Yes | 10 | 29¢ → 30¢ | $3 | +$0 +1.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Ends in 29d | No | 10 | 32¢ → 29¢ | $3 | −$0 −9.4% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 36¢ → 28¢ | $3 | −$1 −21% |
