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Polymarket wallet 0x21adb4c97eca71d5665c8c4b5919c18730c310d2 · on Polymarket since Sep 3, 2026 · also shown as Paltry-Combat

Open on Polymarket ↗

Positions now worth: $4.66K
All-time profit: +$664
Volume traded: $12.9K
All-time rank: #100,390
Markets traded: 106
Recent hit rate: 77%36 of last 47 closed

Open positions

59 markets · $4.66K

Market	Holding		Paid → now
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?Ends in 14d	No	222	90¢ → 96¢	$212	+$12 +6.1%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	Yes	799	25¢ → 26¢	$204	+$4 +2.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 75d	No	230	87¢ → 89¢	$203	+$3 +1.7%
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d	Yes	250	80¢ → 81¢	$201	+$1 +0.6%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Ends in 79d	Yes	270	74¢ → 63¢	$170	−$30 −15%
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?Ends in 42d	No	226	88¢ → 71¢	$161	−$39 −20%
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Ends in 18d	Yes	149	67¢ → 94¢	$140	+$40 +40%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Ends in 102d	Yes	397	33¢ → 35¢	$137	+$6 +4.5%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d	No	145	69¢ → 94¢	$135	+$35 +36%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d	Yes	154	61¢ → 87¢	$133	+$39 +42%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	No	124	77¢ → 95¢	$117	+$22 +23%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ends ended	Yes	214	47¢ → 53¢	$115	+$15 +15%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 52d	Yes	141	71¢ → 77¢	$108	+$8 +7.7%
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d	Yes	182	55¢ → 59¢	$106	+$6 +6.4%
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d	No	133	75¢ → 80¢	$106	+$6 +6.0%
US recession by end of 2026?Ends in 105d	No	112	78¢ → 93¢	$104	+$17 +19%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d	Yes	120	83¢ → 86¢	$103	+$3 +3.0%
Iran leadership change by December 31?Ends in 75d	No	116	86¢ → 89¢	$103	+$3 +2.9%
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d	No	111	90¢ → 93¢	$103	+$3 +2.8%
Will the Democratic Party win the MS-02 House seat?Ends in 17d	Yes	105	95¢ → 97¢	$102	+$2 +2.3%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?Ends in 75d	No	108	92¢ → 94¢	$102	+$2 +1.6%
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?Ends in 79d	Anthropic	109	92¢ → 91¢	$99	−$1 −1.1%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d	Yes	263	38¢ → 38¢	$99	−$1 −1.3%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseEnds in 17d	No	263	38¢ → 38¢	$99	−$1 −1.3%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Ends in 75d	No	105	93¢ → 94¢	$98	+$1 +0.5%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 17d	Yes	107	93¢ → 91¢	$97	−$3 −2.7%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Ends in 75d	No	111	90¢ → 88¢	$97	−$3 −2.8%
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d	No	115	87¢ → 85¢	$97	−$3 −2.9%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 183d	No	108	92¢ → 88¢	$96	−$4 −4.2%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 17d	No	250	40¢ → 36¢	$89	−$11 −11%
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Ends in 75d	No	132	76¢ → 67¢	$87	−$12 −13%
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d	No	135	74¢ → 63¢	$84	−$16 −16%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Ends in 53d	Yes	109	92¢ → 78¢	$84	−$16 −16%
No one announced as next James Bond?Ends in 75d	No	120	78¢ → 66¢	$80	−$14 −15%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	Yes	109	86¢ → 73¢	$79	−$15 −16%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 75d	No	250	31¢ → 30¢	$75	−$2 −3.2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d	Yes	270	37¢ → 22¢	$58	−$42 −42%
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?Ends in 17d	Yes	69	63¢ → 64¢	$44	+$1 +1.7%
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	Yes	137	64¢ → 26¢	$35	−$53 −60%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	Yes	33	85¢ → 97¢	$32	+$4 +14%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Ends in 75d	Yes	188	15¢ → 16¢	$29	+$1 +3.3%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?Ends in 14d	Yes	109	92¢ → 27¢	$29	−$71 −71%
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Ends in 76d	No	42	54¢ → 64¢	$27	+$4 +18%
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?Ends in 75d	No	33	80¢ → 81¢	$26	+$0 +0.6%
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Ends in 75d	Yes	34	83¢ → 77¢	$26	−$2 −6.7%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Ends in 79d	Yes	34	84¢ → 57¢	$19	−$9 −32%
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d	No	17	56¢ → 88¢	$15	+$5 +56%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Ends in 17d	Yes	362	5¢ → 4¢	$14	−$4 −21%
Will Esthela Damián Peralta win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?Ends in 232d	No	14	55¢ → 95¢	$14	+$6 +73%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended	Yes	17	53¢ → 77¢	$13	+$4 +45%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d	No	32	29¢ → 41¢	$13	+$4 +40%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	No	13	75¢ → 86¢	$11	+$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	No	12	85¢ → 93¢	$11	+$1 +8.2%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Ends in 75d	No	11	80¢ → 83¢	$9	+$0 +3.1%
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Ends in 75d	Yes	72	28¢ → 5¢	$4	−$16 −81%
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Ends in 74d	No	4	86¢ → 79¢	$3	−$0 −8.7%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d	Yes	35	81¢ → 9¢	$3	−$25 −90%
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d	No	5	36¢ → 30¢	$1	−$0 −17%
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d	Yes	3	30¢ → 24¢	$1	−$0 −22%

Latest trades

last 60

When	Market	Bet	Size
11h	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	BuyYes63¢	$44
1d	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 17?	BuyUp50¢	$21
1d	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	BuyYes80¢	$200
2d	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?	BuyNo90¢	$201
2d	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of October 12 2026?	BuyNo86¢	$201
3d	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	BuyNo87¢	$200
5d	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	BuyYes25¢	$200
7d	Will Meta (META) close at $710-$720 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 5 – Oct 9?	BuyYes80¢	$193
9d	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	BuyYes74¢	$200
9d	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?	BuyYes63¢	$203
10d	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	BuyNo88¢	$201
10d	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	BuyYes33¢	$131
12d	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?	BuyNo94¢	$100
12d	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	BuyAnthropic92¢	$100
13d	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	BuyYes37¢	$102
14d	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	BuyNo27¢	$103
14d	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	BuyYes91¢	$100
15d	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	BuyYes92¢	$100
15d	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	BuyNo90¢	$100
15d	Meta (META) Up or Down on October 1?	BuyDown51¢	$89
16d	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	BuyNo76¢	$100
16d	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	BuyYes38¢	$102
16d	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?	BuyNo92¢	$100
18d	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	BuyYes87¢	$100
18d	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	BuyYes92¢	$100
18d	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	BuyNo92¢	$100
18d	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BuyYes5¢	$6
18d	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BuyYes5¢	$4
18d	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BuyYes5¢	$7
18d	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BuyYes5¢	$1
18d	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BuyYes5¢	$0
21d	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	BuyNo38¢	$102
21d	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	BuyYes93¢	$100
22d	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	BuyYes55¢	$102
23d	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	BuyNo75¢	$101
24d	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BuyYes47¢	$102
24d	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	BuyYes67¢	$102
24d	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	BuyNo94¢	$100
24d	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	BuyYes30¢	$1
25d	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	BuyNo86¢	$4
25d	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	BuyNo90¢	$100
25d	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	BuyYes85¢	$101
25d	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	BuyYes71¢	$101
25d	Will the Democratic Party win the MS-02 House seat?	BuyYes95¢	$100
25d	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?	BuyYes85¢	$101
26d	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	BuyYes83¢	$100
26d	Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	BuyYes69¢	$76
26d	Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	BuyYes69¢	$24
28d	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	BuyNo69¢	$100
28d	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	BuyNo74¢	$101
28d	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	BuyNo87¢	$100
28d	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	BuyNo93¢	$97
28d	Iran leadership change by December 31?	BuyNo86¢	$100
28d	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	BuyNo40¢	$102
28d	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	BuyNo93¢	$98
28d	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	BuyYes64¢	$89
28d	Will Renan Santos win 8% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BuyNo88¢	$91
29d	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 September 14-20?	BuyYes41¢	$100
29d	Elon Musk signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?	BuyNo95¢	$88
30d	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	BuyNo77¢	$95

Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 47 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.

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